Focus on the daily blockbuster news of the A-share market! Before reading the text, you must know one thing: there are not a few main funds that will be stupid enough to pull the stock price straight up to the limit as soon as the good news comes out, so please be patient and let the good fly for a while, maybe you will find different investment opportunities!
【Domestic and foreign financial news/A-share market】
Surprise 1: "Central Bank Super Week" is coming, and the global capital market may be restless!
Event: This week, the global capital market will usher in the "Central Bank Super Week", and the central banks of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom will jointly appear. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan's policy meeting decision will surely become the focus of the market. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will also hold an interest rate meeting to announce its interest rate decision.
Comment: According to the previous market consensus expectation, as job growth tends to moderate and prices gradually fall, the Federal Reserve will further signal interest rate cuts, but it will not act until September. It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates while shrinking its balance sheet, which will instead become the focus of attention in global capital markets this week. The exchange rate is one of the important external factors affecting the trend of A-shares, although the recent unilateral decline in A-shares has weakened the impact of the exchange rate, but if the amplitude of the RMB exchange rate increases, it will also have an impact on the stock market. It is worth noting that the correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the yen is higher than that of the US dollar recently, and while the yen is accelerating its appreciation, the RMB exchange rate also performed well last week, which is conducive to easing the pressure of continuous outflow of foreign capital.
Market prediction: Judging from the trend of the A-share market, last week was 4 yin and 1 yang, although it stopped falling and rebounded on Friday, but the strength was still weak. So much so that at present, the market is still suppressed in the weak area below the 5-day line. In the past weekend, the market news was a lot more positive, but these positive things stabilized the main institutions, and further tracking is needed to reduce positions when they do not rebound. It is expected that the market will continue to repair the oversold gap of the 5-day line at the beginning of the week, but if it touches the 5-day line and cannot break through, there is a risk of weakening again and breaking a new low.
【Industry/Sector/Theme Concept Positive Comments】
Surprise 2: Trump's major announcement! Bitcoin will be listed as a United States strategic reserve asset!
Event: This weekend, former United States President Trump announced at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that if he can return to the White House, he will list bitcoin as a United States strategic reserve asset. During his speech, bitcoin staged a V-shaped reversal, briefly standing above the $69,000 mark.
Comment: The news is positive for the digital currency sector. Previously, during his presidency, Trump was opposed to cryptocurrencies, calling them a "scam". This change in Trump's attitude also reflects the fact that cryptocurrency users have become a growing political force during this election period. In terms of the A-share market, digital currencies have not been a hot spot in the market recently, and Jingyang has not found that any institutional funds have increased their positions in individual stocks in this sector in the past month. From the perspective of sector trends, digital currencies have been fluctuating and falling with the market in the past few months. As of last Friday, the sector has not effectively stopped the decline and is still suppressed below the key 20-day line pressure level.
Hype cycle: short-term
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: Since there is no institutional participation in the digital currency sector in the early stage, in the absence of a bottom position, if the blockbuster is good to stimulate the movement of the plate, it is necessary to beware of opening high and going low or taking a day trip. So stay on the sidelines for now, and wait for the after-hours trading data to come out before making plans.
Related companies: Hanbao Co., Ltd. (002104), Advanced Data Communication (300541), Nantian Information (000948), Yinzhijie (300085), etc.
Surprise three: the State Grid investment will exceed 600 billion yuan for the first time to promote large-scale equipment updates!
Event: According to the State Grid, in order to accelerate the construction of a new power system, promote the high-quality development of new energy, and promote large-scale equipment renovation, the State Grid Corporation of China has invested more than 600 billion yuan in the annual power grid for the first time, an increase of 71.1 billion yuan this year over last year. The new investment is mainly used for the construction of UHV AC and DC projects, and the digital and intelligent upgrading of power grids.
Comments: The news is good for the power grid equipment sector. In the past five years, the compound growth rate of energy equipment in mainland China has been about 15%, which is not a high-speed growth. According to industry estimates, in the first half of this year, the investment in the mainland power grid exceeded 250 billion, a year-on-year increase of more than 23%, indicating that the growth rate of the industry has improved. This is mainly because in the "14th Five-Year Plan", UHV is a rigid demand for green power consumption. In the A-share market, energy equipment is composed of multiple sub-sectors. According to Jingyang Observation statistics, in the past month, in the entire theme, 3 companies have been significantly increased by institutional seats. Although there are institutions involved in this sector, the intensity is not too large. From the perspective of plate trends, energy equipment followed the power stocks in May this year for a brief period of change, and then began to weaken unilaterally. Although the decline has slowed down at the moment, there is no sign of a trend reversal.
Hype cycle: short-term
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: Since there have been short-term changes in energy equipment within 3 months, the probability of a rapid and substantial return of institutional funds in the near future is not large. In this case, if it is not for the obvious institutional position increase signal on the trading data, the entire sector can remain on the sidelines and not make a move easily.
Related companies: Changgao Electric New (002452), Pinggao Electric (600312), Kelin Electric (603050), Baiyun Electric (603861), etc.
Surprise 4: NIO released the global operating system of the whole vehicle, and the world's first 5nm intelligent driving chip was successfully taped out!
Event: On July 27, NIO held the "NIOIN2024 NIO Innovation and Technology Day". Li Bin, founder of NIO, announced that the world's first 5nm intelligent driving chip, Shenji NX9031, has been successfully taped out. It is reported that as the industry's first high-end intelligent driving chip manufactured using the 5nm automotive specification process, the NIO Shenji NX9031 chip and underlying software have been independently designed.
Comments: The news is good for the automotive electronics sector. With the continuous development and popularization of intelligent driving technology, the future car will no longer be just a means of transportation, but a mobile space integrating intelligence, networking, and electrification. Therefore, in the future, the cost proportion of automotive electronics in the whole vehicle will only get higher and higher. The original intention of Wei's self-developed automotive chips is also to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In terms of the A-share market, the automotive electronics sector is mainly composed of two types of companies: semiconductors and auto parts, because semiconductors have just had short-term changes, and institutional participation has declined in the past half month. Therefore, the probability of a rapid re-trend is not large. The news stimulated the most automotive electronics stocks in the NIO automobile industry chain.
Hype cycle: short-term
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: Since the number of NIO's automotive electronics suppliers is not large, it is difficult to stimulate large-scale fund-raising by institutions, and it is easier to induce sniping of funds. It is more likely that the front row of leaders will change in the sector, and it will be difficult for the middle and rear stocks to keep up.
Related companies: Kotei Information (301221), Koyo (002708), Baolong Technology (603197), Tenglong (603158), etc.
Surprise five: the countdown to the launch of China's version of "Starlink", the commercial aerospace industry chain welcomes opportunities!
Event: According to the previous plan, the launch ceremony of the first batch of networked satellites of the "Thousand Sails Constellation" will be held in Taiyuan on August 5, and the first batch of satellites will be launched into orbit with "one arrow and 18 satellites".
Comments: The news is good for the commercial aerospace sector. In 2024, commercial aerospace will be included in the government work report for the first time as a "new growth engine", demonstrating the great importance that the country attaches to this field. According to industry forecasts, the size of the mainland commercial space market is expected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 23%. In the A-share market, according to Jingyang observation statistics, in the past one month, only a few companies in the commercial aerospace sector have been increased by institutional seats, and the proportion of the entire sector is not large, which can only indicate that in the process of the decline of the plate, there are major institutions that have begun to lurk on the left. However, from the perspective of the trend of the plate, after more than two months of unilateral shocks and declines, the commercial aerospace industry has shown signs of stabilizing at the bottom in the past half month. Especially last Friday, the sector index broke through the key pressure level of the 20-day line, and has been ahead of the market to complete the stabilization action!
Hype cycle: midline
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: Commercial aerospace is one of the highlights of recent technology stocks, and the sector has completed technological stabilization, but institutional intervention is still insufficient. If the sector index does not show a significant downward trend this week, or there are signs of institutional return, you can consider participating in light positions.
Related companies: China Haida (300177), China Satcom (601698), Tianjian Technology (002977), Aerospace Intelligent Equipment (300455), etc.
【Northbound Funds/Tourist Capital Trends/Institutional Seats】
Northbound capital trends: On July 26, there was a net outflow of 349 million yuan, including a net sale of 530 million yuan from Kweichow Moutai, 258 million yuan from North Huachuang, 520 million yuan from Gree Electric Appliances, 443 million yuan from Midea Group, and 187 million yuan from Haier Smart Home.
Key snipers of tour capital: Ningbo Sangtian Road: net purchase of China National Heavy Duty Truck 22.0664 million, Shangtang Road: net purchase of Ananda 11.1492 million, Fang Xinxia: net purchase of Xinyan shares 14.3835 million.
Institutional funds bought in a single day (10 million +): Weichai Power 000338, high dividends, 4 institutions bought and 3 institutions sold, and institutions bought 118.58 million, which was the most net buying stocks by institutions last Friday. Hongdu Aviation 600316, low-altitude economy, 1 institution bought 10616 play, accounting for 7.81%, which was the largest proportion of institutional net buying stocks last Friday.
Institutional funds continued to buy within 10 days (10 million +): Shuangle shares 301036, photoresist, July 22-July 26, institutional funds 3 net purchases, July 26 net purchases of 10.43 million, institutional purchases significantly reduced compared with before.
The overall position adjustment of institutional funds: on the previous trading day, institutions bought 3 stocks with a net purchase of more than 10 million and sold 8 stocks with a net sale of more than 10 million. Last Friday, the market rebounded weakly, and it did not even touch the 5-day line. Institutional buying and selling increased simultaneously, with a slight release of buying orders and more selling orders, and institutional funds turned from a small net outflow last Thursday to a moderate net outflow.
Institutional capital sector repositioning: From the perspective of the flow of funds in the sector, the main line of hot spots (the main direction of the recent institutions), no sector has been increased, and unmanned driving and the Internet of Vehicles have been reduced by institutions when they are strong with the disk, of which the Internet of Vehicles has been greatly reduced, and the unmanned has been reduced by a medium margin. Consumer electronics were reduced in a small amount, and semiconductor institutions did not intervene much.
In terms of non-mainline hot spots (a small number of institutions have participated in the direction in the near future), low-altitude economy and photoresist have been increased by the main force in small amounts; Automobiles, household goods and commercial aerospace, which are among the top gainers, were reduced by the main force in small amounts. The home appliance sector, which led the rally on the day, had no trace of institutional participation.
Overall, last Friday's market was only weak in the oversold state, and the after-hours trading data showed that more institutional seats were released, indicating that the rebound was weak in nature. From the perspective of the capital flow of the plate, the main line hot spots have reduced their positions many times, and there is no trace of institutional increase in the strong sectors on the day. Therefore, in the short term, the money-making effect of the market will still be relatively sluggish, and the persistence of hot spots may not be too strong.
[News Change/Fund Change]
In the past week, Jingyang's "A-share fierce material" abnormal stock highlights:
Last Friday's "A-share fierce news": Jinlong shares, Hisense home appliances, Changhong Meiling, Martian, Zhejiang Meida, strong skyrocketing!
Last Thursday's "A-share fierce news": Andaville, strong skyrocketing!
Last Wednesday's "A-share fierce news": Tengda Technology, strong skyrocketing!
Last Tuesday's "A-share fierce news": Qitian Technology, public transportation, Jinlong shares, strong skyrocketing!
……
This article is from Jingyang's financial self-media matrix, released before 6 o'clock in the morning every trading day, I hope you can keep abreast of the latest news of the A-share market industry, sectors and listed companies through this article, as well as the latest position adjustment trends of various main funds. In the choice of direction, try to achieve the resonance of news and funds, so as to greatly improve the winning rate!
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