Editor's Introduction: Nowadays, the battery swap industry seems to usher in a "spring".
NIO's battery swap, which has always been unfavorable, has ushered in a new turn in the past six months, and the entry of many companies has ushered in an unprecedented boom in the battery swap market.
According to the data, since November last year, NIO has reached battery swap business cooperation with many companies, including Changan, Geely, GAC, FAW, Chery, JAC, and Lotus.
In fact, not only NIO, but also domestic battery giants are optimistic about this "business".
The battery swap track is heating up
For a long time in the past, the battery swap model was questioned due to its high cost and profitability, and in addition to NIO's unswervingness, several car companies also tested the water on a small scale, but in the end they all ended in vain.
In fact, NIO is not the first person in the battery swap track. In the early years, Israel electric vehicle company Better Place and Renault, known as the originator of battery swapping, jointly released battery swap mode models, but the end ended in the tragedy of Better Place's bankruptcy and collapse.
In June 2013, Tesla also announced the battery replacement technology, saying that it can recharge the vehicle in 90 seconds. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said: "The reason why we launched battery swap technology is to see whether people will choose this (energy replenishment method)." We thought people would be more inclined to superchargers, but we couldn't be completely sure, so we created battery swapping technology. Based on the current situation, the promotion value of (battery swapping technology) in the future is not very large. ”
As Musk said, Tesla's battery swap project was quickly halted. With the lessons of the past, the battery swap business has been abandoned by major car companies. Renault executives bluntly said that battery swapping is a dead end, and BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu also said that battery swapping in the passenger car field is neither mainstream nor necessary, because the battery swap mode has standardization problems such as vehicle design, larger volume, and structural safety.
Nowadays, the battery swap industry seems to usher in a "spring".
Because not only NIO, Geely, BAIC, Changan, FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng and other car companies have reached alliances, but also power battery manufacturers such as CATL have successively set foot in the field of battery swapping.
In 2021, CATL wholly established Times Electric Service Technology Co., Ltd., and released the battery swap service brand EVOGO at the beginning of the following year, officially entering the battery swap market. And, by virtue of its position in the power battery market, CATL has just tried to unify the battery swap standard, according to reports, "EVOGO" will be for all car companies, through a unified battery interface and universal adaptation, for most models on the market to provide battery swap services.
CATL said it hopes to build the world's largest battery swap service network in two or three years.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
As for why the battery swap industry is suddenly lively, some industry insiders pointed out that the growth rate of pure electric vehicles has slowed down significantly, and the convenience and duration of energy replenishment are the key factors hindering the further rise of pure electric vehicles. "The battery swap technology effectively solves the pain point of energy replenishment time, which is comparable to that of fuel vehicles. Before the breakthrough of solid-state batteries and charging technology, battery swapping has become a feasible solution to solve the charging time, so it has attracted many car companies to join. ”
However, the above-mentioned person cautioned that the challenges of the battery swap mode cannot be ignored. First of all, the early stage of battery swapping requires a huge investment. In the battery swap mode, about every three vehicles need to spare two batteries at the battery swap station, and the shortening of the energy replenishment time is exchanged for additional costs, and it is very difficult to make a profit when there are not enough access customers; Secondly, although battery swapping solves the problem of energy replenishment speed, it does not fundamentally improve the convenience of energy replenishment, because the number of battery swapping stations is far less than that of charging piles, and its popularity is limited by specific scenarios and regions.
"The battery swap mode involves many key issues such as battery swap station sharing, battery bank management, and battery swapping of different brands, and it is difficult for a single enterprise to promote the ecological construction of the industry." So said the above-mentioned person.
Behind the challenges that cannot be ignored are the new opportunities brought by the battery swap industry.
First of all, it is policy support. In June 2023, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Announcement on Extending and Optimizing the Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption Policy for New Energy Vehicles. The announcement clearly pointed out that for models that adopt the battery swap mode, the power battery and the body will be invoiced separately, and the power battery part will enjoy the preferential policy of exemption from purchase tax.
At the end of last year, the "Announcement on Adjusting the Technical Requirements for New Energy Vehicle Products for Reduction and Exemption of Vehicle Purchase Tax" clarified the relevant requirements for battery swap mode models. By 2024, a number of support policies launched by relevant departments such as trade-in and consumption promotion have clarified "improving infrastructure construction such as charging and swapping".
Secondly, many institutions predict that the battery swap industry has a promising future. Among them, Kaiyuan Securities previously predicted that by 2025, the market size of the mainland battery swap industry chain is expected to reach 133.4 billion yuan; Orient Securities also believes that by 2025, the proportion of domestic battery swap models is expected to reach 30%; PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that by 2035, nearly 40,000 battery swap stations will need to be built for light vehicles.
The broad prospects of the battery swap market are obvious to all, and it seems that it is not difficult to understand why car companies have poured in. But in fact, some industry insiders pointed out that car companies involved in the battery swap industry do not simply want to directly profit from the battery swap business, but want to get involved in the energy storage industry through battery swapping.
Energy storage is the ultimate goal
Data shows that in 2023, global shipments of energy storage batteries will reach 185GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%. Among them, the demand for energy storage batteries in the Chinese market reached 84GWh, accounting for 45% of the global demand.
The battery swap station is essentially a kind of distributed energy storage. The way it participates in grid regulation is also peak regulation and frequency regulation. Peak shaving is peak shaving and valley filling, when the electricity price is high during the peak load of the power grid, it will be charged less or even discharged, and when the electricity price is low during the trough period of the power grid load, it will be charged more; Frequency modulation is to quickly respond to the frequency fluctuation of the grid through power generation and consumption, and keep it within the specified standard range.
According to Huaan Securities, China's virtual power plant market will reach a scale of 78.4 billion yuan in 2025 and jump to 172.9 billion yuan in 2030, and the future market size will reach the trillion level. In the field of energy storage and grid regulation, NIO has already made some moves. In January this year, NIO and LONGi Green Energy reached a cooperation agreement to jointly build an integrated photovoltaic storage, charging and swapping station; In February, NIO partnered with China Southern Power Grid to develop distributed energy storage applications.
In fact, in addition to NIO, Tesla and BYD have also shown great interest in the energy storage market. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Tesla's energy storage business will grow much faster than the electric vehicle business. At present, Tesla's ultra-large electrochemical commercial energy storage system Megapack battery has been put into use in many countries, and plans to build an energy storage gigafactory in China. In the future, Tesla hopes to create an integrated solution for optical storage and charging.
BYD has been committed to the research and development of energy storage systems since 2008, and has achieved full-service manufacturing coverage through full-stack self-development. As a leading power battery supplier, CATL also continues to make efforts in the energy storage market. In April this year, CATL launched the energy storage system "Tianheng".
Some industry insiders pointed out that in addition to valuing the economic potential of energy storage peak-to-valley arbitrage (charging energy storage power stations at low electricity prices, and supplying power from energy storage power stations at peak loads, and realizing benefits through the transfer of peaks and valleys), automobile companies are aiming at the integration of optical storage and charging (swapping), in order to reduce the electricity cost of the station and reduce the dependence on the distribution network.
However, Zhou Lingkun, President of Deloitte China's Digital Business Group, said in an interview that the integrated optical storage and charging station is still in the demonstration stage, and the large-scale commercial application still depends on multiple factors such as the utilization rate of the actual charging station, the local electricity price difference, market policies, and business models.
Another senior executive of photovoltaic companies said that now the energy storage industry has become a competition point for photovoltaic, battery, energy and other industries, and it is not easy for the automotive industry to "get involved" again. "The energy storage industry has just ushered in a little light, and the competition can only be more fierce in the future."