On July 24, Dr. Chen Yifeng, Vice President of Trina Solar and Deputy Director of the National Key Laboratory of Photovoltaic Science and Technology, was invited to attend the "Photovoltaic Industry Industrialization Trend" at the parallel forum of the China Photovoltaic Industry Mid-Year Conference. Looking at the next five years, TOPCon technology is the most advanced, the most mature industrialization, the lowest investment per gigawatt of equipment, more cost-effective, and there is still huge room for efficiency improvement in the next five years. In addition, TOPCon has abundant production capacity and is undoubtedly the mainstream technology. In 5 years, TOPCon is more suitable as the bottom cell of tandem cells, and TOPCon+ perovskite tandem cell technology will continue to burst out with strong vitality. According to a third-party authoritative report, TOPCon has become a clear trend of mainstream technology in the next five years, and has become a clear choice for market leaders.
Authoritative analysis: TOPCon technology will account for 80% of the market next year, and will continue to be mainstream in the next five years
According to Chen Yifeng, the rapid growth of TOPCon production capacity in 2023 has clearly become the mainstream battery technology at present. According to the InfoLink PV Technology Trend Report, the current TOPCon capacity, including those already under construction, is expected to approach 900GW, which is enough to meet most or all of the market demand in the next five years. Over the next 5 years, TOPCon production capacity continued to increase. TOPCon module shipments will also continue to climb and are expected to exceed 600GW in three years' time. At the same time, the report predicts that in the next five years, the market share of TOPCon technology based on TOPCon module shipments is estimated to be around 70%-80%, which is much higher than the market share of other technology routes.
▲Source: InfoLink
On the demand side, according to TrendForce's statistics, the market share of N-type products in domestic PV module procurement in 2023 has grown rapidly from 13.9% at the beginning of the year to 66.7% at the end of the year, showing strong momentum. By the end of 2024, the market share of N-type technologies (mainly TOPCon) is expected to exceed 70%, which is also in line with InfoLink's forecast. The industry generally believes that N-type TOPCon technology will continue to be the mainstream of the PV market in the next 5 years.
The degree of industrialization and supply chain maturity are the key factors for whether technology can become mainstream, and the higher the degree of industrialization and supply chain maturity, the lower the overall manufacturing cost. Compared with other technologies such as BC, TOPCon is the technology with the highest degree of industrialization maturity, the highest maturity of battery supporting technology and equipment, the highest industrial collaboration efficiency, and low manufacturing cost. However, BC products have great limitations in market size and application scenarios due to complex technical processes, low cell production yield and bifaciality, high silver consumption and overall equipment investment.
It is worth mentioning that, according to third-party media statistics, as many as 52 exhibitors showcased TOPCon modules at this year's SNEC exhibition, accounting for 83.9%, and the number of modules accounted for 66.3%, becoming the mainstream. Almost all major module manufacturers have showcased TOPCon modules.
The degree of industrialization and supply chain maturity are the key factors for whether technology can become mainstream, and the higher the degree of industrialization and supply chain maturity, the lower the overall manufacturing cost. Compared with other technologies such as IBC, TOPCon is the technology with the highest maturity of industrialization, the highest maturity of battery supporting technology and equipment, the highest industrial synergy efficiency, and low manufacturing cost, and there is still huge room for efficiency improvement in the next five years. However, IBC products have great limitations in market size and application scenarios due to complex technical processes, low cell production yield and bifaciality, high silver consumption and overall equipment investment.
In his speech, Chen Yifeng also clarified the widely confused concept of BC in the market: BC is a type of electrode structure rather than a generation of battery technology, which is technically ambiguous, including IBC, MWT and EWT; The "BC" advertised in the market today is not accurate, the exact term is actually IBC, and it has been around for nearly 50 years, and is a concept proposed by United States scientists in the last century.
With the best single-watt power generation capacity and outstanding value in bifacial scenarios, Trina Solar's i-TOPCon continues to lead the industry
On the same day, Chen Yifeng introduced the multiple values of Trina Solar's i-TOPCon to the participating experts.
The long-term reliability of PV modules needs to be paid more attention. Trina Solar's TOPCon products have been recognized for their leadership and excellence. In terms of reliability, Trina Solar's single-glass products lead the industry in terms of the reliability of damp heat resistance and the UVID performance of single-glass and double-glass products. According to the RETC test results released in June, Trina Solar's TOPCon products have the lowest post-UVID attenuation rate among all tested modules, ranking first and with reliable quality. According to PV Magazine's latest test results, Trina Solar's TOPCon modules ranked first in both indoor reliability and outdoor power generation in module testing, outperforming HJT and IBC products in terms of PID, low irradiance and comprehensive score in indoor reliability testing, with a maximum power generation per watt higher than that of HJT modules by 1.28% in April. Previously, Trina Solar's products had ranked first in the outdoor power generation list of N-type bifacial products for many consecutive months.
TOPCon uses a forward and back contact structure, and IBC technology uses a cross-finger back contact structure. In terms of bifaciality, the bifaciality of TOPCon products is about 15% higher than that of IBC products, and the low irradiation performance is also 5% higher. This means that TOPCon products have a higher power generation capacity per watt and a lower LCOE.
In bifacial application scenarios, TOPCon products have the advantages of high bifaciality and low irradiation. At present, about two-thirds of the scenarios for bifacial modules and about one-third of the scenarios for single-sided modules in the global market are used, and TOPCon products have higher customer value and competitive advantages in bifacial application scenarios that pay more attention to economic benefits.
In addition to its value advantages in all scenarios, Trina Solar has a deep accumulation of TOPCon technology, a deep underlying technical logic reserve and strong patented technology, which is the hard power foundation of its i-TOPCon leading industry. In 2019, Trina Solar became the first company in the industry to obtain the Germany ISFH certification for the large-area i-TOPCon world record, and the TOPCon technology is far ahead. As of July, TOPCon has more than 500 patents for cells and modules, covering many core technology areas such as Trina's self-developed high-efficiency battery tandem structure design, high-efficiency battery electrical insulation technology, high-efficiency battery preparation process, and high-efficiency battery interconnection technology.
In recognition of Trina Solar's contribution to the industry, Professor Stefan W. Glunz of the Fraunhofer Institute (Fraunhofer ISE) at last year's annual meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association (PV) said that Trina Solar's leading industrialization of TOPCon cell technology is the key to driving the industry into the N era, and that the leading edge of TOPCon technology will enable it to continue to lead and be used in next-generation products.
TOPCon has strong sustainable growth, and the superimposed perovskite tandem will continue to be strong after 5 years
TOPCon technology has proven its excellent leading value in the past and is showing strong sustainable growth. Professor Stefan W. Glunz affirmed the huge development potential of TOPCon technology at the annual meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association last year, and believed that TOPCon will continue to be used in the next generation of products, and that in the future, through the application of passivated contact cell technology and tandem cell technology, TOPCon cell efficiency can achieve higher breakthroughs.
In his speech, Chen Yifeng pointed out that the next generation of photovoltaic technology that breaks through the limit of crystalline silicon cells is tandem cells, which has become an industry consensus. Compared with IBC, TOPCon is more suitable as the bottom cell of tandem cells, and is more cost-effective, so TOPCon technology has a strong underlying vitality, and will continue to improve efficiency and reduce costs in the future by reducing poly on the back side, inhibiting optical parasitic absorption, and adopting ultra-fine busbar technology. In 5 years, there are many ways to improve the efficiency of TOPCon, and the TOPCon + perovskite tandem cell technology will have strong vitality and continue to lead the development of the photovoltaic industry. As a leading company in the photovoltaic industry, Trina Solar has also deployed the research and development of TOPCon tandem laboratory in a forward-looking manner, with an efficiency of 34-35% in the laboratory and more than 30% in the future. However, the three-terminal stack formed by IBC and perovskite is difficult to be applied industrially.
In 5 years, how to make full use of the existing large-scale TOPCon production capacity, deeply apply these advanced production capacity, and protect industry assets will become a problem that the industry must consider. From the perspective of the supply chain and industry, if the existing TOPCon production capacity can be smoothly transferred to the next generation of tandem cell technology and production capacity in the future, this is undoubtedly the path to make full use of industrial capacity and maximize technical efficiency.
Dr. Chen Yifeng said that Trina Solar's production capacity of all TOPCon cells can be upgraded to TOPCon tandem cells, and Trina Solar will continue to play its role as a global leader in smart energy solutions for solar energy storage, and help the photovoltaic industry achieve high-quality development in the new cycle with its leading i-TOPCon technology and products.
Text丨Tian Yuan