Qin Hong looked at the disk| the living water slowly came, and the active main line set sail again

Qin Hong looked at the disk| the living water came slowly, and the active main line set sail again (Jin Bailin consulted Qin Hong. 2021-10-25，17:57。 Source: The Paper)

On Monday, the A-share market showed a trend of shifting the center of gravity in the shock, and the investment main lines that have been active in recent times such as energy stocks and military stocks have led the rally. At the same time, under the premise of reducing the net inflow of funds from the north, the transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen still exceeds one trillion yuan.

It seems that trading sentiment is beginning to heat up, and the follow-up market is expected to become more optimistic.

Incremental capital or continuous influx

The focus of recent public opinion is the real estate tax, in this context, will make more and more social wealth funds looking for new investment directions, and A shares with huge absorption capacity, high liquidity, and positive cash flow such as dividends are expected to become the focus of this part of social wealth, at least marginal incremental social wealth.

The introduction of real estate tax also means that China's economic development mode is quietly changing, from real estate, heavy industry to the direction of scientific and technological innovation, industrial upgrading, new energy power, automobile electrification, etc. is expected to become a new engine of the future economy. This will make the source of funds for the real economy shift from indirect financing of creditor's rights to direct financing of equity, which means that the importance of the capital market is getting higher and higher, and it will attract more social wealth funds to the equity asset market.

Whether it is a primary market or a secondary market, it will become the direction of the positive influx of social wealth funds. As a result, more and more market participants are beginning to agree that equity assets will enter the era of great investment.

Therefore, on Monday, the rising industrial stocks of new economic methods such as new energy power and automobile electrification became the focus of attention of various funds. After all, these industrial stocks are also the focus of the incremental funds that will continue to pour into A-shares in the future. As a result, such stocks led the rally on Monday.

The strength of the market will be expected to heat up

Of course, as far as Monday's intraday is concerned, the cautious mood of some market participants still exists, on the one hand, it is reflected in the individual stock market. Under the premise that the index is generally rising across the board, there are only 102 stocks in the A-share market that rose more than 9% on Monday, and the trading sentiment has heated up, but it has not yet become excited.

On the other hand, it is reflected in the tick trend of the index, and the Shanghai Composite Index once oscillated lower in the morning session. Only then, due to the activity of securities companies and insurance stocks, did the Shanghai Composite Index come out of the adjustment trend. It seems that although the trend is good, the process is still a bit tortuous.

However, with the interpretation of the market, especially the continuous increase in the main line of market activity, it is expected to improve the cautious mood of some of the market participants mentioned above.

First, the growth trend of new energy power and automobile electrification is very clear and certain, especially the main line of energy storage subdivision of new energy power, which may be a key investment direction in the next few years, mainly because the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has expanded significantly, for this reason, it must be converted into a continuous and stable power supply through energy storage (chemical energy storage and pumped storage). Therefore, the future order certainty of energy storage leading varieties such as China Power Construction (601669) is extremely high. Therefore, such individual stocks are expected to drive the main energy line into an upward trajectory again. This will bring about a new demonstration effect of making money and boost the trading sentiment of market participants.

Second, the change in the direction of social wealth allocation will also bring new development opportunities to the financial industry, asset management business, not only refers to funds invested in the secondary market, but also includes equity investment funds in the primary market, which will bring new vitality to securities companies, insurance and bank stocks that have successfully transformed into retail banking business, as exemplified by the rise of GF Securities (000776) and Orient Securities (600958) on Monday and the activity of insurance stocks after the afternoon market.

In summary, the short-term A-share market may still have a certain degree of caution and divergence, but the signs of a medium- and long-term optimistic trend have been formed, not only the continuous incremental funds, but also the active investment main line has set sail again, and the money-making effect has begun to emerge. Therefore, the follow-up trend can still be relatively optimistic, in the operation, can actively layout the leading varieties of the main line of investment that have begun to become active.

Editor-in-Charge: Ge Jia