Power overturned, sometimes overnight. Southeast Asia has been in turmoil for some time, especially in Myanmar, where the flames of war, which were finally stopped by China's mediation earlier this year, have been ignited again.
The acting president of Myanmar took a leave of absence due to illness, and Min Aung Hlaing held a lot of power for a while, and he couldn't help it before the ceasefire agreement expired. Unrest in northern Myanmar has doubled the pressure on China's southeastern border.
How could it be so coincidental that power was transferred overnight, what kind of actions will Min Aung Hlaing make next? Is there an inside story in it? Will China, as a neighbor, help or not?
The United States chose the right time to visit, and Min Aung Hlaing was personally designated
As soon as Donald of the United States State Department said that he wanted to conduct an important information war in Southeast Asia, a showdown broke down in a blink of an eye, and Blinken just announced a few days ago that he would visit Southeast Asian countries, including Viet Nam, Laos, the Philippines and other countries, and directly circled around China.
But coincidentally, recently Southeast Asian countries have their own difficulties, the Philippine side of the gentlemen's agreement just finished the talks and repented, the Bangladesh side of the "color revolution" has just subsided, and has to bother with the construction of the Teesta River, Rao is the five-term Hasina government, also has to take a breath, on the other side of Viet Nam has just held a state funeral, the successor minister actually showed pro-American tendencies.
As Southeast Asian countries have changed the world, Myanmar has also had a major incident, acting President Min Swe's condition suddenly worsened, it is difficult to eat normally, and he can no longer carry out high-intensity work, on July 22, Min Swe resigned and was hospitalized for treatment.
Before leaving office, Min Swe personally handed over all responsibilities and powers to Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the junta.
Since last year, Min Rui's physical condition is not optimistic, the previous treatment in Singapore has little effect, because of neurasthenia, there are also difficulties in action, dragging the sick body to deal with state affairs, it is indeed more than enough and not enough, despite this, Min Rui has always insisted on doing a good job, until the recent period of aggravation of his illness, had to let go of his duties, it can be seen that the condition is already more serious.
The United Nations also warned Min Aung Hlaing about the change, saying that "the junta is destroying a country that it has no control over." ”
Since the military coup in 2021, Min Aung Hlaing has been in real power and the actual controller, but the high-pressure rule of the military junta has led to various unfair treatment of ethnic minorities in Myanmar, and the military government has not changed at all in the midst of the grievances of the people.
Turmoil began in various parts of the country, and all regions rebelled against Min Aung Hlaing's junta, including the international community, which has not recognized the legitimacy of Min Aung Hlaing's junta.
Now Min Swe has personally ordered Min Aung Hlaing to temporarily hand over the presidency to Min Aung Hlaing, giving him and the junta a veneer of legitimacy for the time being.
But is Min Aung Hlaing really governing Myanmar well? He is now the most powerful person in Myanmar, both nominally and in real power.
Now all countries are looking at China's statement, after all, from a geopolitical point of view, China is unable to completely give up Myanmar as a neighbor, and there are many projects in China and Myanmar are advancing, including Kyaukpyu Port, which is very important for the mainland's shipping, and the contract has been signed, and it is a pity to give up at this time.
But in fact, China has been working hard for peace talks in Myanmar since last year, and it is not easy for them to sit down for peace talks because there are many regional forces in Myanmar.
Fortunately, thanks to China's continuous efforts, the two sides sat down in Beijing to negotiate and sign a ceasefire agreement. Including at the subsequent ASEAN meetings, China has always adhered to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, but due to the illegitimacy of the junta, the ASEAN summit decided to accept only non-military junta personnel to participate in the meeting, trying to force Min Aung Hlaing to change its position with such pressure. But with little success.
Why is overturning the agreement increasing the pressure?
Less than half a year after the signing of the ceasefire agreement within Myanmar, Min Aung Hlaing overturned the agreement in June and launched an offensive against the Mindi Forces, injuring many innocent civilians by mistake.
Counting the time, Min Rui's physical condition at this time should have been very bad, otherwise the junta would not be so unscrupulous.
The Kokang Three Brothers Alliance launched a harsh complaint against Min Aung Hlaing for the junta's violation of China's mediation, but it was clear that the other side was prepared, and fierce clashes broke out after the drone strike.
In retaliation, the military junta captured four military bases in Shan State and Mandalay Province, and a total of 11 military strongholds in Madaya and Singu were captured in one day.
Min Aung Hlaing ordered conscription into the military junta in the face of the menacing militia, but several waves of young people fled in order to break free from control.
Under such circumstances, the military junta was unable to replenish its troops in a timely manner, resulting in a sharp drop in morale, and even surrendered without a fight in the face of civilian forces.
What's worse is that Min Aung Hlaing's internal regime has also had big problems, among which the federal minister of water resources U Myint Lai was arrested, the actual reason is to emulate the military mutiny in 2021 and take the opportunity to organize the overthrow of Min Aung Hlaing, but he was arrested.
The junta is in an increasingly difficult situation due to internal and external troubles, and due to the continuous civil strife, the number of opium cultivation in Myanmar has soared, even surpassing Afghanistan, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced, and social unrest has occurred.
Such a conflict will inevitably put a lot of pressure on China's borders.
Recently, the Kokang Three Brothers, mediated by China, decided to extend the ceasefire agreement for 12 days, from July 19 until the end of the month.
This time, China is once again mediating not only to help the junta start peace talks as soon as possible, but also to ensure peace on the China-Myanmar border and reduce the pressure of turmoil.
But after all, this is an internal affair of Myanmar, and there is a limit to the amount of help that China can give.
The peace talks will indeed be more difficult than before in the face of Min Aung Hlaing, after all, he is now more powerful, but the strong momentum of the people's armed forces is not easy to provoke, Min Aung Hlaing should know that this ceasefire, China's help is only temporary, if the military government continues to be stubborn, when will the conflict in Myanmar be stopped.
References:
Rule of law and peace in Zhejiang and Sichuan "After Viet Nam, the southwestern neighbor "changed the sky" overnight, and the war near the Chinese border resumed
Xiaoxiang Morning News "Can't eat! Myanmar's interim President Min Swe receives treatment for psychiatric-related illness》
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