According to US media reports, Harris has won the support of Democratic caucuses in at least 27 states, plus the support of Pelosi and other senior Democratic Party leaders, Harris is basically sure to be Biden's replacement. It is widely believed that the Democratic Party's substitution is to protect Trump, and Harris has no chance of winning. But a poll data released by the British media shows that Harris not only has the strength to fight, but even has an advantage.
Harris
According to a poll released by Reuters/Ipsos on July 24, Harris leads Trump by 2 percentage points with 44% to 42%. The poll, conducted online, surveyed 1,241 adults across the United States, including 1,018 registered voters, within 3 percentage points of error. In addition, a large number of pro-Democratic media outlets have begun to analyze Harris's strengths and campaign tactics.
If you look at the Reuters poll alone, Harris does have the possibility of winning, but if you look at a few mainstream polls, you can find that this is not the case. For example United States Colombia poll released by the broadcaster shows that Trump leads by about 3 percentage points, and the poll released by The Economist shows that Trump leads by 5 percentage points. The US media "Washington Post" combined the data of 11 different polling agencies to show that Trump still has a slight advantage over Harris on the whole.
Trump
The United States election, on the surface, is a competition between two groups of candidates, but in fact it is a donkey elephant and two parties wrestling. So if Harris can get unanimous support within the Democratic Party, there is still hope for a comeback. In the showdown with Trump, Harris is not without an advantage.
First of all, compared with Biden, Harris is only 59 years old this year, and she is running in place of Biden, there is no disadvantage in age and vitality, on the contrary, she has a certain advantage. Second, Harris's past status as a prosecutor coincides with Trump's label as a "criminal." At her first campaign rally on July 23, Harris seized on this and launched an onslaught on Trump.
Harris attends the first campaign rally
Ms. Harris said she had been exposed to a large number of felons and people convicted of fraud while working as a prosecutor in California, so she knew the type of Mr. Trump. In the first round of televised debates, Biden also tried to seize on Trump's label as a "criminal" to attack, but at the time, Biden was inarticulate and did not cause much trouble for Trump.
In addition, Harris's background will help her win the support of minorities, which was lost during Biden's campaign. During her tenure as vice president, Harris had a high focus on abortion, which would be an advantage for her to win the support of certain demographics during her campaign.
Harris
However, Harris's disadvantage is also very obvious. On the one hand, she not only lacks governing experience, but has also been criticized for dealing with border issues during her tenure as vice president. The US media said that her image of always laughing and her clumsy performance in interviews made the outside world worry about whether she was capable of the presidency. On the other hand, Harris's limited influence, coupled with the fact that her deputy is undecided, gives the overall impression of uncertainty, which makes it difficult for voters to vote for her firmly when it comes to voting.
For Trump, it is also unrealistic to want to "lie down and win". As mentioned earlier, although Biden withdrew from the election, the basic position of the Democratic Party is still there. In addition, the last shooting in Pennsylvania proved that in the politically polarized United States, Trump's personal safety could be threatened at any time. So if Trump doesn't go all out and take Harris's challenge seriously, it is entirely possible that he will "overturn" in the election.
The Trump shooting
As far as China is concerned, how the United States is tossed around this election is their own business, and our Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that in line with the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, China will not comment on the United States election. But both parties are keen to hype up China-related issues in order to show a tough stance and harvest votes. Therefore, we must be vigilant that the spillover effect of the United States election will have a major impact on Sino-US relations, especially when the Democratic Party is unfavorable in the election, and we must beware of the Biden administration taking risks and crossing the red line on sensitive issues.