According to the observer network, late at night on July 23, Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba posted on social platforms that it took two days to finally arrive in China, although the journey is long, but it is worth it, because this visit to China is related to peace in Ukraine. The day before arriving in China, the Ukraine Embassy in China also posted a video specially recorded by Kuleba for Chinese netizens on its social media account to express the expectation of strengthening cooperation and exchanges between Ukraine and China.
Foreign Minister of Ukraine Kuleba
Although there have been high-level talks between China and Ukraine since the outbreak of the conflict, this is the first official state visit to China by a high-level Ukraine. Kuleba's visit to China this time mainly focused on bilateral relations between China and Ukraine and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the focus of the outside world was also on peace talks. The current situation can be described as extremely unfavorable for the Kiev authorities.
First of all, the Russian army is in an advantage on the battlefield, although it was also rumored some time ago that the Ukrainian army will counterattack, but it may just be a smoke bomb released by the Kyiv authorities in order to increase the bargaining chips in the negotiations. Second, and most importantly, Ukraine's largest external aid may be cut off. We have already analyzed the situation in the United States elections, and in general, the return of Trump to the White House is very likely. Earlier, Trump said that once he won the November election, he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within a month. In his opinion, it is better to use tens of billions of dollars to aid Ukraine than to build United States.
Trump
In the past, Ukraine was able to fight back and forth with Russia on the battlefield, and even launched a counteroffensive of a certain scale, mainly relying on weapons and equipment and intelligence support provided by the United States and the West. Once Trump decides to reduce his investment in the Russia-Ukraine issue, it is very likely that the Ukrainian army will be defeated in the short term. Therefore, Zelensky's tone has changed recently, not only proposing to hold the second "international peace conference" as soon as possible, but also inviting Russia to participate. Moreover, in his speech to the nation a few days ago, there was a marked change in his stance on the peace talks.
Without the support of United States, Ukraine will lose its bargaining chips at the negotiating table. And Trump does not care about the actual interests of Ukraine, he just wants to end the conflict as soon as possible, and the territorial and sovereign rights and interests claimed by Zelensky may not attract the attention of United States. Looking at the world, almost only China is a country that respects the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine and has enough international influence, especially for Russia.
Zelensky
Therefore, whether China can be invited to participate in the second "international peace conference" and whether it can get China's full support on the sovereignty issue is of great importance to the Kiev authorities. China's position has always been fair and just, and the Ukrainian side may wish to carefully study the "six-point consensus" put forward by China and Pakistan before holding dialogues with China. In general, China focuses on the ceasefire and the humanitarian field. As for the specific territorial issue, earlier China's position paper on Ukraine was mentioned, but unfortunately, Ukraine and the international community did not respond positively.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
In fact, for the Kiev authorities, when the United States and the West are still willing to continue military aid to Ukraine, the chips in their hands have the most weight and are the easiest to obtain a favorable negotiation result. Now that all parties know that Ukraine is likely to become an "outcast" from a pawn, Ukraine's negotiating position is already at a disadvantage, and it will be much more difficult to obtain the desired negotiation result.
In addition, the Ukrainian side also needs to realize that China-Russia relations are independent bilateral relations, and China-Russia cooperation is not aimed at third parties, so the Ukrainian side should not expect China to use its influence on the Russia to put pressure on the Russian side, which is not conducive to the de-escalation of the situation and the resolution of the problem.
As for Ukraine's eagerness to hold peace talks, the Chinese side responded very directly this time. During the talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that both Russia and Ukraine have shown their willingness to negotiate recently, and although the conditions and timing are not yet ripe, China supports efforts conducive to peace. In other words, the Chinese side knows why the Kiev authorities are in a hurry to negotiate now, and the root cause is that Trump may return to the White House, but all this has not yet settled, and there are still variables in the United States election.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba in Guangzhou
Moreover, the Ukrainian side wants China to play a role in the peace talks, but neither Russia nor Ukraine has shown enough sincerity, especially on some important issues, there is not even a basic consensus, and China will not rush to promote peace. Speaking of which, the Kyiv authorities should understand that there is no direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, and there are very few exchanges even through third parties. In this case, it is not a good time to make peace. Whether or not the right time and conditions can be created depends on how the Kyiv authorities choose next.