Keen to "go to sea"! The five public deputy general fund managers spoke out

Avoiding the track of low consumption willingness and concentrated price wars makes the quality connotation of individual stock performance the preferred strategy of public offering bosses.

Including Liu Yanchun of Invesco Great Wall, Mao Wei of China Southern Fund, Yang Gu of Nuoan Fund, Li Huasong of Ping An Fund, and Xiao Nan of E Fund, five public deputy general fund managers, collectively increased their positions in the main line of going overseas during the second quarter of this year, and liquor became the focus of fund managers to reduce their holdings.

The above five public offering bosses believe that the position portfolio should avoid and reduce the low-quality companies that exchange price for quantity, emphasizing the high-quality characteristics of individual stock performance growth, and the prosperity and high-quality growth of the subdivision track are the core criteria for stock selection. As a result, among the holdings of many top fund managers, the upstarts have replaced the domestic demand leader to become the number one new favorite.

Mao Wei reduced the proportion of thematic investment and paid attention to the high-quality growth of overseas enterprises

Mao Wei, who manages the Southern Growth Pioneer Fund, has a large number of main line varieties of science and technology during the second quarter of this year, and the AI artificial intelligence track occupies half of the top ten core stocks.

Mao Wei believes that 2024 will be more balanced, and the large-cap growth style of the growth industry will begin to deduce, while the small-cap growth will be more difficult to grasp due to the market shock at the beginning of the year, and the value of the large-cap will not be as obvious as in 2023 due to the reduced cost performance. In terms of structure, real estate and exports are expected to weaken further, and the future growth center of the macro economy will decline, and we are optimistic about two directions, one is the direction of global science and technology innovation and growth, and the other is the direction of relatively unaffected exports.

In terms of industry, Mao Wei emphasized that we should return to the essence of investment, and that A-shares had a high tolerance for growth in the past, and should pay attention to the quality of the company's growth in the future. Optimistic industries include electronics in the direction of science and technology, as the main body, the valuation itself is not high, with more structural opportunities.

In terms of risks, the current domestic growth sector is still the greater growth momentum of scientific and technological innovation and exports, while overseas technical restrictions and export restrictions on the mainland technology industry are the biggest risk points, especially in the field of AI, semiconductors and trade terms in the field of new energy, which will cause short-term fluctuations in the already fragile EPS. In terms of investment operations, the investment framework will be adhered to, and as the economic cycle and industrial cycle enter the end of the downturn, the number of high-prosperity sectors will increase. On the other hand, it actively looked for investment opportunities under the new normal outside the industrial cycle, and in the second quarter, it still made investments along the industrial trend and growth under the investment framework, maintained a high position as a whole, and at the same time saw a significant decline in the turnover rate, and deployed China's high-quality growth companies from a long-term perspective, reduced the weight of thematic investment, and took economic growth and quality growth as the stock selection criteria.

Export upstarts replace domestic demand leaders, and Liu Yanchun emphasized that exchanging price for volume hurts profitability

Liu Yanchun's first major heavy stock has undergone significant changes during the second quarter of this year, technological innovation drives overseas revenue to account for up to 40% and the layout of the European and American markets has accelerated, has become the top new favorite of the public offering, this adjustment comes from the fact that a number of funds under his management began to focus on the international layout logic of Chinese enterprises, during the period of a small adjustment of the position allocation strategy of consumer stocks, the high-end consumption track of China Duty Free in the Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Fund accounted for nearly 7% of the position to the current 5.5%.

In the subtle adjustment of the consumption track, especially the strategy of reducing high-end consumption, Liu Yanchun believes that this is mainly due to the lack of current consumption willingness, he pointed out in the latest quarterly report that the mainland's economic recovery process has encountered twists and turns, and a number of economic indicators have weakened marginally. In May and June, the PMI fell back into contraction territory, the growth of household consumption slowed down, the growth rate of infrastructure investment fell month by month, and the growth rate of money fell sharply. From January to May, the national tax revenue fell by 5.1%, the personal income tax revenue fell by 6% year-on-year, and the land transfer revenue fell by 14%, reflecting the increasing pressure of internal economic contraction. In addition, the deep adjustment of the real estate and stock markets continues to erode residents' balance sheets, and residents' spending power and willingness to consume are insufficient, so that despite the continuous increase in countercyclical policies, market risk appetite has not been effectively improved, resulting in the continuation of the dividend style of the stock equity market.

Liu Yanchun said that the mainland is undergoing a structural transformation of its economy to cope with the current challenges of debt, economy and international relations. In order to achieve the long-term sustainable development of the country, the mainland actively seeks production-led economic recovery, including independent and controllable industrial chains, encouraging the development of emerging industries, real estate deleveraging, and common prosperity. It should be noted that the current problem of insufficient demand is prominent, and the overall industry shows the characteristics of exchanging price for volume, and the low price has led to a decline in corporate profitability, which in turn has been passed on to the fiscal and household income, and has also led to a long-term downturn in domestic risk assets. At this stage, the excessively high level of real interest rates is obviously not conducive to economic stability, and it is necessary to find more ways to stabilize asset prices, repair residents' balance sheets, and increase residents' incomes. According to the mainland's current price situation, interest rate level, and fiscal situation, the mainland has sufficient motivation and ability to promote the expansion of aggregate demand. In the short term, the issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, and the marginal expansion of fiscal strength is expected to drive the marginal recovery of the economy. The valuation level of A-shares is at a low level, and the market is too pessimistic about future earnings growth expectations, choosing to believe in the wisdom of policymakers, believing that the economy will always prosper again, and the capital market will be vigorous again.

Integrating globalization into the source of profits, Xiao Nan reduced liquor to strengthen the logic of overseas profits

In the context of the slightly insufficient performance of domestic demand consumption, Xiao Nan, who served as a deputy general manager, reduced his holdings of liquor in E Fund's high-quality strict selection fund, and he increased the layout of the overseas industry, including auto parts, chemicals, construction machinery, and core varieties of the ocean shipping track, which shows that the deputy general manager from the head public offering is avoiding areas that are unfavorable to market risk appetite, and trying to invest as much as possible in the field of going overseas where the current industrial trend has significantly accelerated.

Brokerage China reporters noticed that Gujing Gongjiu and Wuliangye were greatly reduced during the second quarter, and the resource stocks with strong performance in the first half of the year also showed a greater degree of profit lock-in, and became the main selling object. Based on his optimism about exports and the logic of the global rise of Chinese enterprises, the highlight of the fund tycoon's new heavy position is Great Wall Motors, which has established production bases in many countries around the world.

Xiao Nan emphasized in the second quarter report that the market as a whole has seen more corrections, and the recovery of some macro indicators has slowed down, which has also been reflected at the micro level. In the second quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.43%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, which represents the large-cap style, fell 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index, which represents the small- and mid-cap growth style, fell 7.41%. Hong Kong stocks performed relatively well, with the Hang Seng Index rising 7.12% in the quarter, breaking the trend of four consecutive quarters of negative returns for the Hang Seng Index. In this context, Xiao Nan admitted that the judgment of the macro trend during the second quarter was biased, but it was quickly adjusted, and in Hong Kong stocks, he increased his holdings of Internet, oil, banking and other sectors with low valuation and high dividends, and reduced his holdings of optional consumption and other sectors that are more sensitive to the macro, so as to diversify the sources of income and risk as much as possible, and strive to balance the volatility level of the portfolio in the current macro environment and find more excess returns.

The new competitive strategy softens the risk of going overseas, and Li Huasong's heavy position strategy mainly chooses "win-win cooperation"

Obviously, although going overseas has become a general consensus for Chinese enterprises to resolve low-price involution and obtain higher profits, the risk of going overseas is actually a risk, but the new competitive strategy may soften this risk expectation, as the company's assistant general manager of Ping An Research Ruixuan Fund Manager Li Huasong in the top ten heavy stocks, has basically all pointed to the overseas industry chain, liquor has been reduced in the list of heavy stocks, in the star fund manager of the main line of the sea, including tires, automotive electronics, Among the vehicle brands with relatively cautious layout in the market, based on the characteristics of going overseas and his prevention of policy risks of going overseas, Xiaopeng Motors, which has equity cooperation and technical cooperation with European automobile companies, has become his only heavy stock in the field of vehicles.

Li Huasong said that at present, the data on the supply side has been closely tracked, and from the perspective of the capacity cycle, the financing of some overcapacity industries represented by new energy is limited. At the high-level meeting in May, greater attention was paid to the problem of overcapacity in emerging industries represented by photovoltaics, which will accelerate the clearing of the supply side. He believes that the decline in capital expenditures and the improvement of profitability and cash flow will also lead to an increase in the ability to pay dividends. The attractiveness of investment will be significantly enhanced. For the market to pay attention to the risks of the export industry that may exist in the future, the international competitive advantage of Chinese enterprises is still relatively strong, and more and more Chinese enterprises are taking the way of cooperation with international enterprises to deal with the risk of export, and adopt a win-win profit model rather than homogeneous vicious competition, so they will continue to look for high-quality companies in these directions, and judge that the overall risk of export is relatively controllable.

From the perspective of valuation, Li Huasong judged that the valuation level of many companies is much lower than the replacement cost of new production capacity, and it is also lower than the valuation level of overseas peer companies. It should be that the bottom of valuation and policy have been seen, and the bottom of performance is getting closer and closer. Based on the above analysis, the previous judgment is maintained, the domestic economy is expected to be close to the bottom, the supply side will accelerate the clearance, the trend of globalization of China's outstanding enterprises will not change, and the key is to find a win-win profit model. In the future, there will be a number of companies with global competitive advantages and large overseas growth space, with stable capital expenditure, reasonable dividend levels, and medium-to-high-speed growth in performance, attracting long-term patient capital inflows.

Exporters must also avoid excessive competition, and Yanggu concentrates on key scarcity links

As one of the fund managers who has managed the current product for the longest time, Yang Gu has been the fund manager of Sino Analytica Pioneer Mixed Fund since February 2006, and he has been the fund manager of this public product for nearly 19 years. According to the information disclosed by Sino Pioneer Fund, Yang Gu significantly increased its holdings in the second quarter of the printer leader Ninestar, which is also an important participant in the field of domestic automotive electronic chips and semiconductor chips. It is worth mentioning that Yang Gu prefers terminal brands in the field of automation in the strategy of heavy stocks, in addition to the printer leader Ninestar, the sweeping robot leader Rock Technology and the lawn mower robot leader No. 9 Company, which are currently in the limelight in the overseas market, have entered the core stock pool during the second quarter.

Yang Gu believes that the strong resilience of exports has offset the drag of real estate, although the listed companies in the portfolio are facing a certain state of prosperity, but many companies in this state of economic recurrence, gradually get rid of competitors, business to a higher level; Some companies have not been able to get rid of the entanglement of competitors and face greater competitive pressure, some of these companies have taken effective measures to help them gradually establish an advantage over competitors in the future and avoid falling into a price war.

The public offering boss believes that in the process of reconstructing the global supply chain, every enterprise needs to think about how to avoid excessive competition, and going overseas is only one of the answers. Therefore, stock selection tends to invest in the position of the bottleneck of the industry. Being in the bottleneck of the industry is an important part of the competitive barrier, and it is also an important characteristic of growing enterprises. Most of the bottleneck effect has not been reflected for the time being when demand has not yet recovered. First of all, such enterprises are in the key links of the industrial chain, and they need long-term investment and accumulation to gain a firm foothold. Once demand recovers, it is easy to have a situation where supply exceeds demand in relevant links. Secondly, the production capacity of some industries in the mainland has gradually increased and the concentration has gradually increased, and the relevant listed companies have given full play to their advantages in various aspects to expand their production capacity, and the competitive landscape has become more favorable. There are even listed companies that have a more prominent position in the global division of labor. For example, some traditional manufacturing industries have high requirements for manufacturing experience, and the order cycle of European manufacturers is twice that of domestic manufacturers, and domestic manufacturers have lower costs and fast service response. Some listed companies in the industry, which were ranked among the top 10 in the world before the epidemic, have now advanced to the top 5 in the world. In most areas of the mainland's manufacturing industry, a detailed survey can reveal that the above-mentioned listed companies have some common characteristics, such as the continuous increase in R&D investment, the gradual increase in the average income of R&D personnel, and the gradual improvement in profit margins and cash flow.

Yang Gu emphasized that as a result, the key links of the relevant industrial chain have been transferred to these listed companies. This is manifested in the growth characteristics of related companies, for these growth companies in the key links, although they have not been able to reflect the characteristics of rapid growth in the current environment of fluctuations in the overall prosperity, most of them still achieve the growth of performance, and if the economy recovers in the future, the growth will be released.

Editor-in-charge: Luo Xiaoxia

Proofreading: Peng Qihua