The big change window for A-shares may have come in July. If the Shanghai Composite Index can rise in July and break through 3,000 points, the stock market in August can break through 3,100 points, so that the Shanghai Composite Index can get out of the killing market in May and June and regain its bullish trend.
The reason is that after the previous 2 months of decline, this year's stock market has repaired the risk of a big rise in February, the valuation of the three major stock indexes is also in a reasonable position, and the strong support of 2900 points is also another window for the stock market to choose to fall sharply, as well as a big rise, and the second wave of large-scale market will be released later.
Fortunately, many sectors that have fallen sharply have climbed ahead of schedule, and some sectors have bottomed out without an increase in turnover, indicating that the stock market has signs that it does not want to fall. If the stock market can increase again, A-shares can be in an environment of extreme lack of decline, and it is likely that they will not fall sharply, and there will be opportunities for a sharp rise.
Will the stock market fall sharply or rise sharply?
Tuesday is about to open, and the good news is coming again
Positive 1,
At present, many financing customers in the stock market are selling funds, only 6 days of market, there have been more than 22 billion yuan of funds leaving, indicating that many financing funds have declining confidence in the stock market, thinking that the stock market will not rise later.
In particular, this time the falling sectors are concentrated in the food and beverage, banking, transportation and other sectors, which have accumulated a lot of gains, but the current downside risk has surged, which has also accelerated the sale of financing funds chasing the rise and killing, increasing the adjustment of high-dividend sectors.
Peony believes that the departure of financing funds is a good signal for the stock market. With the suspension of other short-selling instruments, and the current amount of shorting in the stock market has not increased, it may make the stock market in its current position and the market change at an accelerated pace.
In other words, the current stock market is already a time when many investors are bearish and many investors are bearish, but institutional investors are actively buying, and there is hope that the funds for shorting A-shares will be exhausted, and there will be a wave of upward trend anytime and anywhere.
Pros 2,
The U.S. stock bull market is likely to end for a period of time, and the number of U.S. stock institutions that are bearish on U.S. stocks is increasing, and they are also actively selling technology stocks in U.S. stocks, making the market value of the seven giants evaporate more than one trillion yuan.
However, the short-term rebound of U.S. stocks has not ended the decline, indicating that the current U.S. stock investors have been divided, there is no unanimous optimism, and the short-term high of the Nasdaq index has come.
The trend of A-shares and U.S. stocks has shown different performances, and many institutional investors are bullish on A-shares, with private placements, public offerings, and broad-based ETFs actively participating, so that A-shares now have new funds, and there will be no continuous risk of killing, and the market has stabilized the decline.
In addition, the position of tens of billions of private placements is increasing, the number of public funds has also increased this year, and the purchase scale of broad-based ETFs has exceeded 200 billion yuan, which is good news for the stock market to support the rise of bulls.
Peony believes that institutional investors in A-shares are optimistic about A-shares, and may also attract institutional investors in U.S. stocks to invest in A-shares from U.S. stocks, amplifying the market opportunities of A-shares in the future.
On the other hand, the funds of Hong Kong stocks are also very active, and the southbound funds have bought more than 300 billion Hong Kong stocks this year, indicating that the southbound funds are also very confident in Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong stocks are also in the position of the bottom.
The stock market is likely to go through another 23-year history
From the analysis of positive 1, the financiers are selling funds at an accelerated pace, and every time the financiers are chasing the rise and fall, going long when the price is high, and killing the fall when the price is low.
Now the accelerated selling of financing customers is likely to be the short-term low point of the stock market, and there may be hope that A shares will brew a big rise at 2900 points.
Positive 2 shows that foreign institutional investors in U.S. stocks are selling, and institutional investors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are buying, which also reflects that many institutional investors believe that there are more opportunities in A-shares than in U.S. stocks, which can also be understood as more funds to be bullish on A-shares in the future.
Peony predicts that the stock market is likely to experience another 23-year history. The stock market in May and June of '23 was a downward trend, and in July it was an upward trend. The current stock market is likely to experience the same trend as in '23, with a rally closing in the later trading days of July.
The article is a peony investment idea, the content is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, thank you for lighting up the little thumb below!