Author: Zhukov
Recently, the situation in the United States has changed rapidly. Just recently, former United States President Donald Trump was shot at a critical moment in the election campaign, and the bullet wounded Trump's ear. After timely rescue, Trump's life was saved, and photos of Trump himself "not flinching" at the moment of the shooting were widely circulated on local Internet platforms in the United States. Trump's poll support has continued to rise, and he has become a "heroic leader" in the hearts of United States.
Biden, on the other hand, did not speak publicly immediately after Trump's assassination attempt. It wasn't until the day after the incident that Biden addressed the entire United States. More importantly, as the United States president in power, Biden also suspended some actual activities of the presidential campaign for a time, which was regarded by United States public opinion as a sign of Biden's "weakness", and Biden's support is declining.
▲Trump's support will increase significantly
If Trump returns to the White House in November 2024, what will happen to the relationship between China and the United States? Trump has a politician named Vance next to him, who is not yet 40 years old and is a "political amateur". Trump's promotion of Vance to vice presidential nominee in the context of his third presidential run is likely to groom Vance as his successor.
Vance is extremely tough on China, more extreme than Trump. Vance advocated that United States should be completely decoupled from China, and advocated higher tariffs on China. At the military level, Vance very much hopes that the US military will place its main forces in East Asia and stumble China on some core issues in China. In this way, once the Trump + Vance combination comes to power, the risk of "turbulent waves" in Sino-US relations will rise sharply.
▲ Trump wants to show that he is strong
Coincidentally, some politicians in Europe are also showing their loyalty to Trump. Before Trump took office, CNN reported that NATO officials are discussing that if a conflict between NATO and Russia breaks out in eastern Europe, NATO officials may "take back" China's infrastructure construction in Eastern Europe. The infrastructure includes ports and railways in Eastern Europe along China's Belt and Road Initiative. NATO's confiscation of China's infrastructure facilities in Eastern Europe by NATO European countries is likely to be directly related to NATO's assumption that "China supports Russia's fight against Ukraine."
▲Screenshot of CNN news
Europe is already gradually losing its independence and autonomy within the framework of NATO. Even if the Labour government in United Kingdom comes to power recently, independence is slightly better than the Conservatives. But if the United States grasps the "seven inches" of the United Kingdom Labour government, the Labour Party will also fall to the United States.
The small European countries, with the exception of France, Germany and Hungary, all look at the face of United States to do things.
France is a relatively independent European power other than Hungary. In 1964, France withstood United States pressure to establish diplomatic relations with New China. In 1966, France withdrew from the NATO military organization. Although Sino-French relations have experienced twists and turns, they have been able to move forward steadily, and they have been built on the basis of France's independent diplomacy. The current Macron authorities are confronting United States under domestic pressure. If Trump comes to power, the contradictions between the United States and France will intensify, after all, Macron very much wanted "NATO brain death" during Trump's first administration.
Germany invests heavily in China, including a series of big names such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW. At present, economic and trade exchanges between China and Germany are quite frequent. Against the backdrop of a great impact on Sino-US economic and trade exchanges, Sino-German economic and trade exchanges have never been greatly affected. If EU countries forcibly confiscate China's assets in Europe after Trump takes office, Germany will most likely stand up against it, because Germany entrepreneurs do not want to lose China's vast market. If the EU does dare to move Chinese assets in Germany, German companies may move their headquarters from Germany to China.
▲ Orban
Hungary is an extremely individual country in the European region, and Orban and United States relations are inherently bad. On the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Orban sympathized with Russia's plight and refused to follow the whole of Europe in sanctioning Russia. This makes United States and some pro-United States families in Europe very dissatisfied with Hungary. Hungary has been quite cautious and sensible in its attitude towards China, and China's investment projects in Hungary and trade between China and Hungary have not been affected by the United States trade war. If the EU really dares to force Hungary to confiscate Chinese assets, it is not impossible for Hungary to withdraw from the EU and NATO.
If the NATO top brass forces Germany and France to confiscate China's assets in Europe, it is not impossible for Germany and France to withdraw from the EU and NATO.
If NATO's top brass really dares to go its own way, Europe risks splitting.
Therefore, it is better to ask the top leaders of some NATO countries to behave themselves and not to do excessive things. Why should the EU look at the face of United States and follow its own path?