The first city of China's subway has changed hands

National Strategy

2024-07-12 11:43Posted in Guangdong financial field creators

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01 The first city in China's subway passenger flow intensity changed hands, and Shenzhen replaced Guangzhou to become the top city, with a passenger flow intensity of 14,000 passengers/km/day.

02 The reasons for the high passenger flow intensity of Shenzhen Metro include smaller urban area, higher population density, stronger density of metro lines, and increased passenger flow brought about by the development of the Greater Bay Area.

03 At the same time, the intensity of subway passenger flow in Changsha, Xi'an, Harbin, Lanzhou and other cities also remains high, partly due to the large population size but slow subway construction.

04However, the passenger flow intensity of subways in Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Dalian, Hefei, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Jinan and other places has not yet reached the standard, due to insufficient population, construction period or construction pace, etc.

05 Subway construction may continue to tighten in the future, and the subway dream of many cities will face challenges.

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Text: Kaifeng

As soon as the subway rang, there were 10,000 taels of gold.

To measure the competitiveness of the subway, one indicator is the operating mileage, which looks at the large volume, and the other is the passenger flow intensity, which measures the prosperity of "popularity".

From the perspective of operating mileage, the first city of the subway is the dispute between Beijing and Shanghai; From the perspective of passenger flow intensity, it is a battle between breadth and depth.

Nowadays, the pattern of the first subway city is changing.

01

Who is the first metro city in China?

According to data from the Ministry of Transport, as of the first half of 2024, 53 cities (including county-level cities) in mainland China have opened urban rail transit, of which more than 30 cities have been connected to the subway.

From the perspective of subway mileage, there are currently 7 cities in mainland China that have joined the 500-kilometer subway club, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Wuhan and Hangzhou.

At the moment, Beijing and Shanghai are far ahead, but the gap between the two cities is negligible, and in the future, Beijing is expected to win by virtue of its larger urban area.

However, the length of the subway mileage is more affected by the population size, urban area, and construction period, and is more of a temporary lead.

Although Beijing and Shanghai are far ahead, but in the end it is bound to be a city worthy of a province Chongqing to catch up, Chongqing subway planning mileage of more than 1,300 kilometers, as long as time, the first is not a problem.

Looking at the passenger flow intensity, compared with the simple operating mileage, the passenger flow intensity can better reflect the competitiveness of the subway.

The so-called passenger flow intensity refers to the average number of passengers per kilometer per day, similar to per capita GDP and per capita income.

The intensity of passenger flow is not only a sign of subway congestion and prosperity, but also a measure of subway efficiency, and an intuitive embodiment of a city's popularity.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Transport, as of 2024, there are only nine cities in China with a subway passenger flow intensity of "1": Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Changsha, Xi'an, Harbin, Shanghai, Beijing, Lanzhou, and Chengdu.

It can be seen that Shenzhen replaced Guangzhou as the first city in China's subway passenger flow intensity and became the busiest city in the country.

You must know that Guangzhou has been the first city in the subway passenger flow intensity for many years, and the legends such as bravely entering Line 3, the decisive battle of Zhujiang New Town, the landing of Sports West, and the decisive battle of Jiahe Wanggang are widely known.

The reason why passenger flow intensity is important is that it is one of the basic thresholds for subway construction and a key indicator of whether the subway is sustainable.

According to national regulations, the initial passenger intensity of the new subway shall not be less than 7,000 passengers per kilometer per day, and the long-term passenger flow scale will reach more than 30,000 passengers per one-way peak hour.

Based on the minimum of 7,000 passengers, only 1/3 of the more than 50 cities that have opened urban rail transit meet this standard, and many strong second-tier cities and even provincial capitals are not as expected.

After all, the subway is expensive, and if there is not enough passenger flow as support, it will be difficult to form a scale effect, and it will be difficult to generate operational benefits, and it will fall into a bottomless pit of losses in the future.

Therefore, the relevant departments have recently further clarified that the first round of construction plans of cities and general prefecture-level cities that do not meet the conditions will not be accepted, and if the passenger flow does not meet the standards after three years of operation, the new round of construction plans cannot be reported.

This is also the reason why the new round of subway planning of many megacities has been cut, and it is also the reason why many ordinary prefecture-level cities have been turned away.

02

The intensity of passenger flow in Shenzhen Metro, why does it beat Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou?

Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are the first cities in mainland China to open subways. Beijing opened its first subway in 1969, followed by Shanghai and Guangzhou in 1993 and 1997 respectively, while Shenzhen waited until 2004.

As an emerging city, Shenzhen's economy has soared, but transportation, education, culture, and medical care have once become shortcomings. In recent years, with the help of desperately building subways, universities and hospitals, Shenzhen is catching up.

Since the beginning of this year, the single-day passenger flow of Shenzhen Metro has exceeded 10 million people many times, becoming the fourth 10 million-level subway passenger flow city in the country, and it is in the first echelon with Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Shenzhen's metro operating mileage is only 567 kilometers, and the average passenger flow intensity is higher, with more than 14,000 passengers/kilometer per day in the first half of this year, ranking first in the country.

First, as a megacity, Shenzhen has a smaller urban area, a higher population density, and a stronger line density, making it easier to give full play to the scale effect of the subway network.

Some cities are shrinking, and some cities are still pouring in, all in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.

According to the data, Shenzhen's permanent population in 2023 will be as high as 17.79 million, almost all of which are within the urban area, while its geographical area is only 1,997 square kilometers, less than 1/3 of Guangzhou and Shanghai, and only 1/8 of Beijing.

In terms of population density, Shenzhen has a population of 8,900 people per square kilometer, more than three times that of Guangzhou and more than eight times that of Hangzhou.

Second, Shenzhen is desperately building a subway, and it is concentrated in the central urban area, which can drive the increase in passenger flow.

Since 2019, Shenzhen has added more than 250 kilometers of new subways, second only to Hangzhou, which has the economic bonus of the Asian Games, and most of these new subways pass through the central city.

Guangzhou has also built a lot of subways in recent years, but most of them are located in the suburbs, and the passenger flow effect is not as good as the central line, coupled with the rise of many commercial centers in the outer districts, diluting the overall passenger flow intensity, so as to be overtaken by Shenzhen.

Third, the intensity of subway passenger flow is the embodiment of the city's popularity and vitality.

Since last year, Shenzhen's economic performance has been extremely bright, successively catching up with Shanghai to become China's first industrial city and foreign trade city, and its GDP has led the first-tier cities many times, driving more foreign population to return.

Although the permanent population of Guangzhou and Shenzhen is less than 20 million, if you add short-term passenger flows such as family visits, business trips, and travel, the real-time population of both cities is more than 24 million, which is not weaker than that of Beijing and Shanghai.

Fourth, the Greater Bay Area is becoming a city, and with the two-way breakthrough of hard and soft connectivity, a large number of tourists from Hong Kong and the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary are pouring in, bringing greater popularity to Shenzhen.

A few days ago, the high-profile Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor was opened, which crossed the Lingding Ocean and connected the east and west banks of the Pearl River Estuary, and Shenzhen's "sphere of influence" was able to expand to the vast west bank of the Pearl River Estuary.

On the first day of opening, the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor encountered a large traffic jam, and the total traffic volume in the first week of opening exceeded 720,000 vehicles, and the average daily traffic volume was more than 100,000 vehicles, far exceeding expectations.

At the same time, since last year, it has become a trend for Hong Kong people to "go north", and Shenzhen has suddenly poured in countless Hong Kong tourists with stronger spending power, which has undoubtedly led to the improvement of subway passenger flow.

Last year, more than 40 million Hong Kong residents entered the country through the Shenzhen port, and this year is expected to exceed 60 million or more.

The passenger flow of the subway and subway has soared, and the intensity of the passenger flow has surpassed that of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which can be described as logical.

03

Changsha, Xi'an, Harbin, Lanzhou, why does the intensity of passenger flow beat that of Beijing and Shanghai?

Since last year, Changsha, Xi'an, Harbin and other cities have been high on the list of subway passenger flow intensity, which has become a hot topic for a long time.

One reason is that these cities have large populations, but the construction of subways is slow, and the subway mileage is not commensurate with the size of the population, resulting in the concentration of passengers on the only subway lines.

Changsha and Xi'an are both large cities with a population of 10 million, and Harbin has a permanent population of more than 9 million.

This is especially true in Harbin and Lanzhou. So far, Harbin has only 3 subways with an operating mileage of only 82 kilometers, while Lanzhou has only 2 subways, and the existing subways are difficult to meet the demand.

Unfortunately, Harbin's new subway plan was rolled back, not because of the intensity of passenger flow, but because of the debt ratio.

Another reason that cannot be ignored is that these cities are all big cultural and tourism cities, and there is no shortage of Internet celebrity city genes, with many tourists, and some popular check-in places can be called crowded.

According to the data, Xi'an and Changsha received 278 million and 195 million tourists respectively last year, and this year's tourist arrivals hit a record high.

Just as the Shenzhen subway has the blessing of passenger flow from Hong Kong, Dongguan and Zhongshan, the passenger flow of Xi'an and Changsha subway also has the help of tourists from all over the country.

Unlike many provincial capitals, which are dominated by commuter passenger flow, Internet celebrity cities have both a huge commuter flow and a large number of tourist flows, and the superposition of the two has led to a surge in the intensity of passenger flow.

However, it can be expected that with the acceleration of subway construction, once the line is greatly expanded, the passenger flow intensity of these cities may return to normal.

04

Which cities are less intense than expected?

If 7,000 passengers/kilometer per day is used as the benchmark, the subways in Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Dalian, Hefei, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Jinan and other places have not yet reached the standard.

Some cities may be in the cycle of large-scale subway construction, and there are few lines that have been opened, and they have not yet been connected to the network, making it difficult to form a scale effect.

In addition, some cities, based on urban development thinking, give priority to the suburbs dozens of kilometers away, but the suburbs are not densely populated, resulting in a temporary low passenger flow.

Of course, more cities are due to insufficient population, especially in urban areas, and a large number of people are scattered in counties and towns that are difficult to be covered by the subway.

Therefore, one of the three major thresholds for subway construction formulated by the state is the urban population, and the urban population is less than 3 million, and the subway shall not be built.

In fact, many economically strong cities, even trillion-level cities such as Quanzhou and Yantai, have not been able to build subways for a long time because of the large number of county divisions, the population is too scattered, and the urban areas are too weak to meet the standards.

If it is because of the construction period or construction rhythm, the lack of passenger flow intensity is not a problem, if it is because of population factors, then subway construction may not be a good business.

After all, even the Shenzhen subway, which has the highest passenger flow intensity, may not be able to make money, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all need financial subsidies without exception, let alone ordinary cities?

You must know that not every city has sufficient passenger flow support, not every city has sufficient financial resources to support the bottom, and not every city's fiscal revenue can always maintain high growth.

It can be said that under the pressure of debt, subway construction will continue to tighten, and the subway dream of many cities is really going to be shattered.

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