<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right">日经新闻今天（9月30日）发表了一篇揭秘文章。 In Japan's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, Kishida Fumio ranked first in the first round of voting. He received more than 40% of the votes of party members and party members, ranking first. 那么，在此前舆论调查中获得支持的河野太郎是怎么失败的呢？ As Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga gave up his presidential election, the LDP's support rose, and the sense of crisis that "it will not win the next House of Representatives elections" disappeared. The factions thought that the steady Kishida would win with few enemies and eventually united to support him. </h1>
The new president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party was in fact confirmed on the afternoon of September 27, two days before the invoice was issued. The venue is the office of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe located in the first member of the House of Representatives of Japan. Kanriaki, who belongs to Kishida's camp, visits Shinzo Abe, who supports Takashi Sanae.
Shinzo Abe said to Ganliming: "Kishida refuted Kono very well. In the president election, it became very tough. What I think in the final vote, everyone in the high city camp knows."
Soon, Taro Aso listened to GanLiming's report and whispered, "Victory or defeat has been decided." If Kishida is ranked 2nd in the first round of voting, the Takashi camp will vote for Kishida in the final voting, and there will be a "2 or 3 joint".
Shinzo Abe, Taro Aso, and Akira Gan reached an agreement. As a result, Kishida ranked first in the first round of voting, not 2 or 3 combined, but 1 and 3 jointly won.
The atmosphere within the LDP a month ago was completely different. In the face of the looming House election, the young members of the House of Representatives all believed in their hearts that "Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga could not win the election" and felt that Kono Taro would become the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party.
According to public opinion surveys conducted by various media such as the Nikkei Shimbun, Kono Taro leads the way among the "candidates who are suitable to become prime minister." On September 3, Suga announced that he would not participate in the LDP presidential election, and Kono, as a cabinet member, decided to run.
Koizumi also met privately with Shigeru Ishiba and encouraged him to support Kono. After listening to Koizumi's words, Suga revealed: "With the support of Ishiba and Koizumi, if he gets 70% of the party membership votes, Kono can win."
The Kono camp believed that "if you compete de facto 1-on-1 with Kishida, you will win the first round of voting with half of the party members' votes." At this time, Abe Shinzo took action, and he began to support Takaichi Hayanae, who was interested in running for election. Abe's strategy was to drag the election into the final round of voting, which accounted for 90 percent of the parliamentarian votes.
"Call you for something to ask." Mr. Abe placed the contact information on the desk of the office and called close lawmakers, local councilors, and cadres of support groups one by one. From policy to the candidates for the Election Countermeasures Headquarters, Abe gave Takashi Many Suggestions, and also suggested that "it is better to draw eyebrows straighter."
Seeing the attitude of Shinzo Abe, who has great influence in the Hosoda faction, the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, people around him can't even understand: "It's really coming." Obviously his favorite candidate is Kishida...".
The strategy adopted by the Kono camp is to rely on the popularity of public opinion to succeed in one fell swoop, and they have always been very optimistic. When the Hosoda faction expressed its policy of "supporting Takashi or Kishida", Koizumi said provocatively: "It is very simple to see (for the Hosoda faction) that Kono is absolutely not OK."
Knowing this, Shinzo Abe told those around him: "If Shigeru Ishiba supports Kono Taro and Koizumi Jinjiro criticizes the Hosoda faction, then I must also insist on my own opinion", and worked harder to solicit votes.
The atmosphere within the LDP has also changed markedly. According to an emergency public opinion survey conducted by the Nikkei Shimbun from September 9 to 11, the LDP's party support rate rose by 9 percentage points from August to 48%. Centered on the members of the House of Representatives who have not experienced a difficult election and have been elected for 1 to 3 terms, the atmosphere among the young members has also become "Since this is the case, no matter who is the president, there is no problem in the election of [the House of Representatives]."
When Seiko Noda announced his candidacy on September 16, the day before the LDP's election announcement, Kono told Aso that "in this way, a decisive vote will be inevitable." The Kono faction's strategy of hoping to win a majority of the votes in the first round of the election had to be revised.
In the Kono camp, Koizumi Bejiro began to develop countermeasures and increased the chances of being in the same frame as Shigeru Ishibashi (Two Shot). But Shinjiro Koizumi was not Kono's electoral countermeasure cadre. "Koizumi is not a cadre, why should I listen to his instructions", such dissatisfaction appeared within the Kono camp.
When Taro Kono or Shinjiro Koizumi, who are not usually active in communicating with other members, solicit votes, some members of the councilor coldly said, "I don't usually have much contact, so what's the matter?" The team of parliamentarians and secretaries who support Kono is very nervous.
The power of the Takashi Sanae camp has increased. At one point, there was a lot of speculation that "Takashi Sanae may compete with Kishida Fumio for the second place and enter the decisive vote." The Kono faction believes that if they enter the decisive vote with Kishida Fumio, they will lose. Therefore, the plan was also discussed to vote for part of Kono's support for Takashi and make Takashi rank second. The Kono camp was forced to such a point.
The Kono camp believes that "if it can get 50 to 60% of the votes of the party members, it can appeal that [Kono Taro] has changed the public opinion unfavorable to the LDP", and only pinned little hope on the election.
Seeing Kono's stall and confusion, Abe stopped canvassing the weekend before casting his vote. Abe said, "No one thought that the number of votes [of Takashi Sanae] would reach 3 digits." The rest depends on Takaichi Sanae's own efforts."
On the 27th, two days before the vote, the Takeshita faction, which had not expressed its attitude, announced that "the majority of parliamentarians who support Kishida Fumio" announced. The second-order faction that has gone to the spotlight chooses to let the legislators vote for themselves.
Factions that thought Kishida Fumio would win swarming up. Kishida overturned previous predictions, and he was ranked No. 1 in the first round of voting. Kono Taro did not receive 50% of the party membership votes, and the number of parliamentarian votes was only ranked third.
Among the members of parliament who believe that "as long as Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga does not run for president, there will be no problem in the (House of Representatives) election," some people are worried that Kono Taro "may promote aggressive reforms." If Kishida Fumio is elected, the existing LDP party order, which dominates by Shinzo Abe, Taro Aso, and Akira Gan, will be maintained.
The LDP presidential election was held with the participation of MPs of different generations and factions. At the moment when the uneasiness of the House elections disappeared, the LDP's introverted consciousness increased. The situation around the world has changed dramatically due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic, diplomatic and security guarantees are at the center of change. Simply maintaining the status quo may not get through.
(Transferred from Nikkei Shimbun Chinese.com)