Recently, Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Talira revealed that a "165-meter giant ship" of the Chinese Coast Guard departed from Hainan Island on July 1 and entered the Philippines' so-called "exclusive economic zone" the next day. This giant ship is the China Coast Guard 5901, with a full load displacement of up to 12,000 tons, and is currently one of the largest coast guard ships in the world.
The Philippine Coast Guard said it had successfully tracked the movements of the Chinese coast guard vessel using "dark ship detection technology" provided by Canada. The Philippine Coast Guard immediately "questioned" him by radio and asked him to confirm his intentions.
The Chinese coast guard ship then dropped anchor near the South China Sea and stayed for more than two days. During this time, it remained within 730 meters of distance from a Philippine coast guard vessel. Speaking on a news forum, Mr. Tagliera bluntly called the Chinese coast guard vessel's move a form of "intimidation." "We will not retreat and we will not be intimidated," he stressed. "
General Brawner said on July 4 that the Philippines had rejected the U.S. offer to provide assistance and wanted to handle the South China Sea operation on its own. "Yes, they've been offering help and asking what kind of help we need," he said. But before we seek foreign help, we need to exhaust all our options as much as we can. "
Philippine National Security Adviser Arnold also said that the Philippines hopes to carry out a "purely Philippine operation" in the South China Sea. "This is our legitimate national interest, so we see no reason for the United States to intervene," he stressed. Arnold spoke with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in June to discuss shared concerns about China's "dangerous and escalating behavior" in the South China Sea. But in his opinion, the Mutual Defense Treaty is far from the point where it needs to be activated.
In the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines, the Philippines is well aware of China's style and intentions. China has always made it clear that it rejects foreign forces meddling in South China Sea affairs and believes that the South China Sea issue should be resolved by regional countries through negotiation and consultation. If the United States is behind the Philippines' emboldening efforts to support its actions in the South China Sea, China is likely to further strengthen its control over the waters in question to safeguard its sovereignty and rights in the South China Sea.
A few days ago, Chinese and Philippine officials met in Manila and pledged to "rebuild mutual trust" and properly manage maritime disputes.
The current reality is that many islands and reefs in the South China Sea are in fact under China's tight control. China has deployed a large number of military forces and facilities on these islands and reefs to conduct round-the-clock surveillance and patrols in the surrounding waters. Due to humanitarian considerations, China has still opened some supply channels for the Philippines and allowed it to deliver supplies to Second Thomas Shoal to maintain the basic needs of the garrison.
But if the Philippines uses extraterritorial forces such as the United States to challenge China's presence in the South China Sea, China is well positioned to respond strongly. At that time, China may close the existing supply routes, cut off the supply lines of Filipino personnel, and replace them with Chinese rescue. At the same time, it has taken tougher military action in the South China Sea and resolutely denied Philippine vessels access to the waters near the relevant islands and reefs. In such a situation, it will be difficult for the Philippines to send any supplies to the islands and reefs in the South China Sea under its control, and the situation of its personnel will be even more difficult.
In terms of military strength, the Philippines does not have an advantage in the South China Sea. In contrast, China has the largest maritime forces in the world, including a navy, coast guard, and maritime militia. This huge maritime force can effectively monitor and manage the waters of the South China Sea and respond to various emergencies at any time. In contrast, the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard are relatively limited in size and equipment, making it difficult to compete head-on with China in the South China Sea.
It is worth noting that the United States, as a military ally of the Philippines, has offered to assist the Philippines in operations in the South China Sea. Under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, the United States is obligated to provide military support if Philippine troops, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea are attacked by armed forces. Some observers, such as former U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger, have even called on the U.S. Navy to directly escort the Philippine resupply mission.
Therefore, the Philippines' approach to seeking U.S. support in the South China Sea is actually risky. In the event of an escalation, the Philippines will probably bear the brunt of the impact. The Manila authorities seem to be aware of this and are therefore quite cautious about receiving US assistance. For the Philippines, perhaps the safest course of action is to manage its differences with China through diplomatic negotiations, rather than rushing to military measures. Only when all parties remain calm and exercise restraint and resolve the dispute peacefully can the situation in the South China Sea be expected to ease.
Greg Pauline, an expert on the South China Sea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that the United States is willing to provide naval escort for the Philippine supply mission, and has already given some limited support. He revealed that in 2023, Philippine officials had discussed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers how to reinforce the "Sierra Madre"; In addition, US military planes have been photographed hovering over the ship on several occasions.
General Brawner said the U.S. offer of assistance was not based on the events of June 17 but on the longstanding military alliance between the two countries. "This is mainly because we are treaty allies, so this proposal has been around for us for a long time, and not just because of this incident. But we have not yet turned to them for help, because according to the president's orders, we must first rely on our own strength. "