Core Summary
The whole chain of cross-border e-commerce logistics benefits and enjoys triple dividends. In the context of brands going overseas, mainland cross-border e-commerce platforms have ushered in rapid development, bringing triple dividends of growth, price and model upgrading to cross-border e-commerce logistics. Among them, the warehousing and express delivery business may enjoy more growth dividends, the track with strong supply constraints is the capacity (price dividend), and the upgrading of the freight forwarding enterprise model also brings investment value (model upgrade).
The three links of cross-border e-commerce logistics "point", "line" and "surface" ushered in investment opportunities. From the perspective of the organizational form and business model of the enterprise, cross-border e-commerce logistics enterprises can be divided into three types of enterprises: "point", "line" and "surface".
(1) "Point" link - warehousing: warehousing is a link with strong resource attributes, regardless of domestic warehouse or overseas warehouse, small and beautiful resource-based enterprises can be born. Warehousing enterprises only need to master warehouse resources in core regulatory areas, ports or airports to enjoy the growth dividends brought by the continuous release of industry demand.
(2) "Line" link - capacity, freight forwarding: the dividend of capacity mainly comes from structural dividends, and the rapid development of mainland cross-border e-commerce platforms in Europe and the United States has led to an increase in the demand for capacity on European and American routes, which has promoted the rise of freight rates and brought greater performance flexibility to transportation capacity enterprises. The dividends of freight forwarding come from the upgrading of the business model, the unique business model of cross-border e-commerce logistics enables the company to be responsible for the whole process of services, including the first pickup, warehousing and the last transfer, distribution, more complex links and diversified needs for cross-border e-commerce logistics to bring greater added value, freight forwarding companies are expected to extend the value chain with the help of cross-border e-commerce, and increase the proportion of direct customers.
(3) "Surface" link - express delivery: through the integration or self-construction of the whole process of resources, bring long-term development space.
Focus on the target:
(1) China Eastern Airlines Logistics: Relying on its own + China Eastern Airlines' belly warehouse capacity, we will build a comprehensive air logistics service system. In the case of insufficient recovery rate of international flights in Europe and the United States, strong demand in 2024 is expected to pull the cycle back to the upward channel, and the performance is more elastic.
(2) Sinotrans: the world's leading freight forwarder, the company's e-commerce business and air transport sector is expected to become an important growth point in performance, and the shareholding company Sinotrans DHL is also expected to contribute rich investment income to the company.
(3) Huamao Logistics: Air freight and cross-border e-commerce logistics are expected to become the main growth poles of Huamao Logistics, and under the background of continuous promotion of direct customer logic, air freight and cross-border e-commerce logistics are expected to bring more than expected performance flexibility to the company.
(4) Jiacheng International: The cross-border warehousing resources of the card slot, benefiting from the dividends of cross-border e-commerce, the rapid reduction of new production capacity and the contribution to the increment, the performance in 2024 is expected to usher in greater growth.
Main content:
1. Cross-border e-commerce dividends, all aspects of cross-border logistics benefit
2. Analysis of investment opportunities in each link
Third, focus on the target
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