Straight News: The second round of voting in the French parliamentary election has begun, and whether the far-right National Alliance can get an absolute majority and form the country's first far-right government has become a common concern in the West, what do you think of the French election?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The French parliamentary election was held in a hurry. In the European Parliament election, the far-right party National Alliance won a big victory, and President Emmanuel Macron's party Baath fell to third place, so Macron made a political gamble and tried to prove his status and public support in French politics through parliamentary elections. Coincidentally, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France are all making political gambles, and Biden televised a debate with Trump in advance, which turned out to be overturned, and whether he can represent the Democratic Party in the presidential election is still a question mark; Former British Prime Minister Sunak has already lost the bet, he announced the general election ahead of schedule, and as a result, the Conservative Party lost only bottoms, and more than half of the cabinet ministers were not elected; Today is Macron's big test, he announced that the parliamentary elections will be held early, and victory is impossible, so we have to see whether the loss is big or small. According to the last poll before the vote, the far-right National Alliance will get between 170 and 210 seats, followed by the left-wing coalition New Popular Front, which is expected to win between 155 and 185 seats, and Macron's centrist is in third place with about 120 to 150 seats. Together with the centrist of the Left Alliance and Macron, there was a technical coordination before the second vote, and in order to concentrate the votes to stop the far-right, more than 200 candidates withdrew from the elections in order not to scatter the votes and not to allow the far-right to take advantage. From this point of view, it is difficult for the far-right National Alliance to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats. According to French political rules, the party with the most votes in the parliamentary election takes the lead in forming a government and serves as prime minister. Le Pen, the leader of the far-right bloc and leader of the National Rally party, declared before the vote that her goal was for her party to be prime minister for all French people. However, the 28-year-old Jordan Bhadra, the candidate for prime minister put forward by the National Alliance, sent a different signal, saying that the National Alliance would not reach an absolute majority and that he would not be prime minister. The ambition of the leader of the National Alliance, Le Pen, is to win the presidential election in 2027, and in order to reduce the political stain, the National Alliance may not become prime minister even if it becomes the largest party in parliament. You must know that as long as you are in power and participate in the management of the government, you will inevitably leave stains and mistakes. So it is not yet certain how the next French government will be formed. It is more likely that a coalition government will be formed by Syriza and Macron's Baath Party. After this parliamentary election, three things are certain.
First, the far-right National Alliance will become the leading force in French politics and influence the future political trend of France.
Second, Macron's presidential power will not be affected much, and he will still dominate France's diplomacy and military, and determine the basic direction of French politics. The position of the French prime minister is very special, that is, a general manager, mainly in charge of domestic affairs, basically not involved in military and foreign affairs.
Third, the French parliament will be deadlocked, or "suspended", with the three major political forces on equal footing, without a clear ruling majority, and full of contradictions between them, making it almost difficult for the government to push through laws and related policies. This could make France a difficult country to govern, paralyzing French policy until the end of Macron's presidency in 2027.
Straight News: Europeans always seem to be very resistant when they hear about the far-right party, which is regarded as a "dangerous good", but at the same time, the far-right party in Europe is growing, such as the far-right party in Italy and Hungary has come to power, what do you think of the far-right party?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The reason why Europeans are disgusted and even boycott far-right parties is related to history. The far-right party before and after World War II mostly refers to fascism, and since then, the liquidation of fascism in Europe and the United States has been relatively thorough, so the far-right party is not a good word, and is often associated with extremists, racism, and scoundrels. But the current far-right parties are very different from the previous far-right parties, such as the National Alliance led by Le Pen in France, which is trying to get rid of racism and xenophobia. In an attempt to shake off her bad reputation, she expelled her father from the party in an attempt to put on an elegant, mainstream-friendly veneer.
The extreme right parties in Europe have several common characteristics: First, they emphasize the status of the nation-state and are unwilling to cede power to international organizations, so the extreme right parties in Europe are not very interested in the EU and NATO, believing that part of the state power has been taken away, and that French law should take precedence over EU rules.
Second, they are not very friendly to immigrants, and even adopt a position of restriction and exclusion, opposing dual nationality and establishing nationality according to their place of birth, and they like to try to cover up racism by saying that "France is the France of the French".
The third is to oppose homosexuality and allow anti-abortion activities.
Fourth, it is necessary to take radical measures in the economy and be willing to engage in pragmatic cooperation with countries, including Russia.
Fifth, there is a tendency to deny the Holocaust to a greater or lesser extent, and there are anti-Semitic overtones.
In both France and Italy, economic issues have often become a tool for the far-right to attack the center-right or center-left ruling parties, especially high inflation, low growth, insufficient employment, and the widening gap between the rich and the poor. After the far right came to power, the situation changed, such as when Italian Prime Minister Meloni came to power, cooperating with the EU and NATO, rather than opposing them. Western society is worried that Le Pen's National Alliance will take power, mainly because France's economy and international voice are much stronger than Italy's, and France's dependence on the European Union is much lower than that of Italy and other small and medium-sized European countries. If Le Pen's National Alliance were to take power and adopt aggressive policies, it could have a huge impact on the West's main agendas, such as aid to Ukraine against Russia, NATO unity, and cross-Atlantic relations. France is one of the main driving forces of the European Union, the second largest economy in the European Union, a major NATO power and a member of the United Nations Security Council, and the growing growth of the far-right party, and even the prospect of coming to power, could create political uncertainty for France, the European Union and the West. In addition, Trump, who pursues "America First", may win the US election, which makes US-EU relations, NATO's future, the Ukraine crisis, and East-West relations all confusing and turbulent.
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Guo Yongji, chief writer of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News