Straight News: US President Joe Biden received the Japanese Prime Minister at a high level, the two countries announced more than 70 agreements, and issued a joint statement of leaders, what do you think of the US-Japan summit?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The US-Japan summit boasted that it had pushed US-Japan strategic cooperation into a "new era" and made China the main target of defense. Let's start with the U.S.-Japan defense cooperation measures, which are more than 70 agreements. There are six main aspects that deserve our attention:
First, the military command system has been adjusted, the authority and rank of the US military command in Japan have been upgraded, and the "integrated command" composed of Japan's Navy, Army, and Air Self-Defense Forces and cyber forces has been seamlessly connected to form a unified command framework. Although Prime Minister Kishida stressed that Japan's Self-Defense Forces will not be brought under the command of the U.S. military, the structure of the U.S.-Japan coalition has been formed to act in concert in peacetime and in emergencies. This is the largest upgrade of the security alliance between the two sides since the signing of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty in the 1960s.
Second, it reaffirms Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, emphasizing that Japan will be defended with a variety of capabilities, including nuclear weapons, and that this article applies to the Diaoyu Islands. We oppose China's unilateral changes to the status quo in the East and South China Seas.
Third, for the first time, the United States and Japan announced that they would cooperate with Australia in air defense to establish an air defense missile network and defense system. The Triple Alliance of the United States, Britain, and Australia is also considering including Japan in the "second pillar" involving advanced technologies such as hypersound and artificial intelligence, and it is expected that Japan will join this military alliance sooner or later.
Fourth, the United States and Japan will establish a military-industrial cooperation platform to jointly develop and produce missiles, so as to strengthen the United States' lack of weapons manufacturing capacity. At the same time, Japanese companies are allowed to provide large-scale maintenance for US ships and aircraft, and jointly train fighter pilots with advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence.
Fifth, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom will hold regular exercises from 2025, and the United States, Japan, and the Philippines will also establish a "critical deterrence," and Japan and the Philippines are negotiating a mutual access agreement that would allow Japan to station troops in the Philippines. The U.S.-Japan-Philippines security cooperation plan will be announced after the summit of the leaders of the three countries.
Sixth, the United States supports Japan's acquisition of a "counterattack capability" on the basis of strengthening its defense capabilities, and supports Japan in lifting the upper limit on military spending, increasing its military spending from less than 1% of GDP to 2%. We can see from this that the escalation of the US-Japan military alliance has broken through almost all the restrictions on the development of military strength stipulated in Japan's pacifist constitution and is opening the way for Japan's militarization. In Japanese parlance, Japan has once again moved away from the pacifist line it adhered to after World War II and could be mired in potential regional conflicts at any time.
On April 7, the United States, the Philippines, Japan and Australia conducted their first "full-scale" joint exercise in the so-called "exclusive economic zone" of the Philippines, which included anti-submarine warfare training.
Straight News: Is the elevation of the military alliance between the United States and Japan and the strengthening of alliances with other countries just for the sake of so-called defense? What kind of challenges does it pose to China?
Chen Bing, Special Commentator: Obviously, the US-Japan military alliance is aimed at China. While Biden claims that this is a "defense-limited alliance," he has also made no secret of his rhetoric about responding to China's increasingly "dangerous and escalating tensions" in the Indo-Pacific region. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was even more open-mouthed, saying that Japan and the United States have jointly responded to China's challenge through close consultations.
On the dispute between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, Biden asserted that the United States will unswervingly defend Japan in accordance with Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and use a full range of capabilities, including nuclear capabilities, to oppose China's unilateral changes to the status quo in the East China Sea. The two countries will strengthen the optimization of alliance forces, including in Japan's southwestern archipelago, and strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of the United States and Japan.
On the South China Sea issue, both the United States and Japan regard China's claims in the South China Sea as "illegal maritime claims" and support the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration" in 2016, smearing China's efforts to assert sovereignty as "destabilizing the South China Sea."
It can be said that the US-Japan alliance is an "anti-China alliance" that poses a threat to China's security to a certain extent. However, the question arises: Can the US-Japan alliance block China's general trend of national reunification? Will it hinder China's actions to safeguard sovereignty in the East and South China Seas? Didn't the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines just conduct a four-nation military exercise in the South China Sea, but they were greeted by the People's Liberation Army's-for-tat naval and air combat patrols. This is an event worth remembering for them, and it also shows China's strength and attitude in safeguarding sovereignty.
Straight News: The summit of the United States, Japan and the Philippines will be held, what do you think this small trilateral will do?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The US-Japan-Philippines summit will probably do two things according to the information released by the United States.
The first is to elevate the security alliance between the three countries and establish so-called "critical deterrence" to interfere with China's efforts to assert sovereignty in the South China Sea. Among them, the Philippines may allow U.S. and Japanese troops to be stationed in the Philippines in exchange for joint patrols in the South China Sea, begging the United States and Japan to increase military assistance to the Philippines to support the South China Sea dispute with China and resist China's claims to sovereignty in the South China Sea.
The second is to ask for money, hoping that the United States and Japan can increase investment in the Philippines and carry out supply chain cooperation in key industries, mainly mining and refining nickel ore and rare earths. The Philippines has the world's second-largest nickel ore resources. Since the Philippines' military power is not on the same level as that of the United States and Japan, securing investment may be the most urgent thing for the Philippines.
Before Marcos' departure for Washington, the Philippine presidential office issued a statement saying that the Philippine government hopes to reach an investment agreement of about $100 billion over the next five to 10 years at the summit of U.S.-Japan-Philippine leaders. It can be seen that the Philippines is the most important thing to ask for money to participate in the trilateral meeting. US Secretary of Commerce Raimondo visited the Philippines not long ago and said that it is necessary to strengthen trilateral maritime, trade, and investment cooperation between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines, but the United States only plans to invest $1 billion, and it seems impossible to ask for $100 billion now, even if it is calculated in 10 years.
My personal judgment is that this US-Japan-Philippines summit will probably disappoint the Philippines. The completed meeting between the leaders of the United States and Japan is the focus, and the Philippines is a foil, and Biden once again claimed that the three countries held a "historic meeting", realizing another "small trilateral". The security alliance formed by the three countries can mislead public opinion, but it will have little effect on China's efforts to safeguard sovereignty in the South China Sea.
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".