Yugoslavia was a founding member of the United Nations and the Non-Aligned Movement, and had a strong international influence. In 1992, the regional giant of southeastern Europe was split into five, and since then, it has been further divided into "seven gourd babies". At that time, four arrows hit Yugoslavia's vital goal, and the giant fell to the ground in great embarrassment.
The image above is marked with the location of Yugoslavia
- The first arrow is ethnic antagonism
Yugoslavia is located in the western part of the Balkan Peninsula, with a land area of 266,800 square kilometers, slightly larger than China's Guangxi Province, with a total population of 23 million in 1991. More than 20 ethnic groups lived in Yugoslavia, among which Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, Montenegrins, Macedonians and Muslims established their own republics. In terms of state structure, Yugoslavia adopted a federal system, and in addition to the six republics, on the territory of Serbia, there are two autonomous provinces, Vojvodina and Kosovo.
Since ancient times, the Balkan Peninsula has controlled the lifeblood of communication between the East and the West, and Yugoslavia has been in it, and foreign troubles have been frequent and suffering. As a result, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia converted to Orthodox Christianity, Croatia and Slovenia became Germanized and Catholic, and some of the inhabitants of Bosnia and Herzegovina embraced Islam. Differences in ethnicity lead to differences in culture, religion, language, and habits, as well as a lack of understanding and identity with each other.
Above_ Treaty of Versailles (English: Treaty of Versailles)
After World War I, under the Treaty of Versailles, these distinct peoples were incorporated into the "Kingdom of Yugoslavia". Unfortunately, the Serb rulers of the Kingdom pursued "Greater Serbianism", in which the Serbs controlled the vast majority of the top positions of the State and the army, and pursued a strategy of exclusion and oppression against other ethnic groups, resulting in tensions between the various ethnic groups and a lack of national cohesion.
In 1945, the Communist Party of Yugoslavia headed by Tito implemented a policy of ethnic equality, which effectively alleviated the antagonism of various nationalities and established a socialist federal state. Subsequently, Yugoslavia's social and economic development entered a period of rapid development that lasted for more than 30 years. However, the short-term prosperity cannot hide the entanglement of history. At the end of the 70s of the last century, populism was revived, and representatives of the republics and autonomous provinces used the "veto power" to safeguard their national interests and interfere with the normal operation of the country.
In 1990, Yugoslavia announced the implementation of a multi-party system, and more than 300 political parties emerged in a country with a population similar to Shanghai. Yugoslavia was like a "rudderless eight-man rowing boat", galloping madly into the abyss of destruction.
Above_ Ethnic distribution map of Yugoslavia
- The second arrow: the failure of political reform
The political reforms along the wrong lines hastened the disintegration of Yugoslavia. After the establishment of Yugoslavia, federalism and socialist self-government were Tito's two magic weapons. The two brought all-round development to Yugoslavia and enhanced its comprehensive national strength, but they also fueled people's blind optimism and complacency, and neglected the study of national contradictions and economic development.
In the operation of the state, these two magic weapons have problems of varying degrees. The SACP is actually a coalition of independent political parties from six republics. In order to cope with the growing national antagonism, in 1969, the Ninth National Congress of the Communist Party of Yugoslavia implemented the reform of decentralization and made three major changes to the organizational construction:
Above_ Yugoslavia in 1966
The first is the abolition of the Central Committee of the SACP and its replacement by the Standing Committee of the SACP Congress, which represents the relinquishment of the dominant position of the SACP in the country.
Second, the leading members of the SACP are no longer elected by the SACP Congress, but are instead elected by the CLD organizations of the republics and autonomous provinces on the basis of the principle of equality, and the representatives selected by various localities have in essence become the spokesmen of regional interests.
Third, the local Communist League congresses are convened before the SACP congresses, and all localities formulate their principles and policies in advance and then go to the national congresses to bargain.
In 1974, the 10th Congress of the Communist Party of Yugoslavia was aware of the signs of disintegration of the country, but did not take fundamental measures to eliminate them. During his lifetime, Tito's great personal prestige and talents were able to suppress various social problems. In 1980, after Tito's death, Yugoslavia lost its "last man" and the country fell into a "power vacuum". The negative impact of political reform has made organizational building useless.
Above_ Industrial construction in Yugoslavia in the 70s
- The third arrow is the economic crisis
The poor economy has led to a loss of confidence in the Yugoslav government. In the 60s of the last century, the party organizations of the Yugoslav republics were in a state of autonomy, and nationalism began to rise. In 1971, Tito planned to "realize the economic sovereignty of the nation" in exchange for a sense of belonging to the members of the federation. "Economic sovereignty" includes the fact that the republics are responsible for the economic affairs of the region, such as financial management, foreign exchange receipts and expenditures, and public utility receipts and expenditures, and the federal government exercises the "common responsibilities" expressly assigned by the republics.
Economic decentralization overdrew the lives of Yugoslavia:
On the one hand, the central government's ability to draw financial resources has been declining. According to statistics, in 1972, the central fiscal revenue accounted for 20.7% of GDP and the central fiscal expenditure accounted for 21.1% of GDP, but by 1989, these two indicators had dropped to 5.6% and 5.3%.
On the other hand, regional economic development is extremely unbalanced, and the overall relative difference coefficient of per capita GDP in the whole country has risen from 45% in 1965 to 53% in 1988. In 1988, Slovenia's GDP per capita was 7.5 times that of Kosovo, making it one of the countries with the largest regional disparities in the world.
Above_ Yugoslav banknotes of 500 dinars in 1981
Beginning in 1981, Yugoslavia's social output value was sluggish for four consecutive years, with a growth rate of only 0.6 percent, the inflation rate increased from 30 percent in 1982 to 1,256 percent in 1989, and its external debt in 1985 was as high as $24 billion, with an annual interest payment of more than $5 billion, making it one of the countries with the largest per capita external debt in the world.
At the same time, the unemployment rate has gradually risen, reaching 20 per cent in 1990 and leaving 1.36 million people without work. The decline in the quality of life has widened the gap between regions and ethnic groups, deepened the differences, and eventually converged into a torrent of division.
Above_ Josep Broz Tito (May 25, 1892-May 4, 1980)
- The Fourth Arrow External intervention
After Tito liberated Yugoslavia, the United States regarded it as "the most powerful force in the East against the West other than the Soviet Union" and quietly carried out peaceful evolution in the political, economic, and military aspects by rallying other Western countries. In 1988, the "Slovenian League" was founded, marking the emergence of the first opposition party in Yugoslavia.
In order to restore their traditional influence in parts of Yugoslavia, Germany, Italy, Hungary and other countries openly supported the separatist forces in Slovenia and Croatia in terms of politics, law, and public opinion. According to the Yugoslav Ministry of Defence, after 1990, local armed forces in Slovenia and Croatia received tens of thousands of guns, millions of ammunition and other munitions from Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and other countries.
Above_ Vatican map
According to media reports, the Vatican has provided Croatia with a special loan of $4 billion for arms. German officers conducted training for local Slovenian troops. As Yugoslavia's biggest supporter, the Soviet Union was also in a serious internal crisis and had no time to meddle in Yugoslav affairs. On June 25, 1991, Slovenia and Croatia took the lead in independence, and Yugoslavia entered the countdown to disintegration.
On 27 June, in order to maintain the unity of the country, the Yugoslav People's Army engaged in fierce battles with local Slovenian armed forces, staging the largest regional war in Europe since the end of World War II. Far from curing the cancer of division, the war hastened the pace of the disintegration of Yugoslavia. Catalyzed by multiple factors, this "most combative and offensive regime" has quenched its thirst, fallen apart, and is heading for its end.
Resources:
[1] Hu Angang, "Lessons and Enlightenment of the Former Yugoslavia"
[2] Sun Keqin, "International Factors in the Crisis and Disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia"
[3] Xu Wanming, "The Economic Roots of the Disintegration of the Former Yugoslavia"
[4] Li Ming, "Analysis of the Reasons for the Disintegration of Yugoslavia"
[5] Ma Xipu, "The Disintegration of Yugoslavia and the National Question"
(Source: History School Jun WeChat public account.) Thanks to the original author, just for knowledge sharing. ）