What prompted her death was neither a pay cut in the financial industry nor a real estate correction

Pay attention to the official account, the compass in the world, in order to read the text "Watching people, how to see if a person is a potential stock"

A lot of readers asked me to talk about this.

According to online rumors, there are female employees in the financial industry who bought a house with a down payment because of their savings for many years, but the down payment has fallen, and the salary has been reduced, which makes them unable to think about it, and feels that they have worked in vain for so many years.

There are also rumors that it is not a real estate problem, but a chaotic investment that leads to heavy debts and salary cuts.

There is nothing to talk about in itself, and if you have to give me an opinion, it is just two words: mourning.

This is someone else's private matter, and we should respect every life and every person's personal choice.

So I'm done talking about it.

However, looking beyond the deep thinking behind the case, I can talk about the fact that let's say that a planet is called Alpha, and there is a female employee in the financial industry on Alpha.......

I can talk about this fictional alpha star, but I am talking about general laws.

First, let's look at the financial sector.

Is the financial industry a good industry?

Always.

If you look at money as water, what are the various industries? It's a field. So what is the financial industry? It's a canal.

If there is no water in the canals, do you think there can be water in the fields?

If the water in the canal is very shallow, I am afraid that the fields will be dry and smoky.

Therefore, in horizontal comparison, the financial industry has always been a good industry.

But in longitudinal comparison, if you are a bank, for example, the difference between deposits and loans in the past was 4 points, and the loan interest rate was so high that we couldn't let it out.

But what are the international standards? It is more than one point.

It's like when someone grows crops and they grow crops once a year, and you plant crops that grow four crops a year.

When you are accustomed to four crops a year, and suddenly the general environment changes, allowing you to connect with international standards and let you experience the next year's first harvest, do you feel that life is very difficult?

Naturally.

But it is difficult to suffer, the difference between deposits and loans is more than one point is an international practice, you used to be able to four or five points, and the enterprise still begged you to borrow money, which can only show that the life of the enterprise is too good, and the money is too easy to make.

When the difficulty of business operation is in line with international standards, how can you be alone in the financial industry?

This is a longitudinal perspective, of course you think it is difficult, but this is difficult, foreign financial counterparts have been like this for hundreds of years.

People live like this, and it makes no sense that you can't live it.

This process, when you get used to it in the future, looking back on the history of the industry, it may be just four words: reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

No matter how many family joys and sorrows are under these four words.

Then let's look at the real estate industry.

Who says that a house can only go up, not down?

Any breed, up and down is normal.

So now the question is, when you are in the best period of your industry, you put the easiest money to earn, all the brains into real estate, because of a pullback, you lose all the accumulation, whose problem is this?

Your own problem, of course.

If we look back at how the vast majority of the rich have become poor, we will find that the path is very consistent.

A person, starting from the poor, keeps making money and accumulating, let's assume that he has earned a billion billion after more than ten years.

In this process, there must be many correct decisions, and there is even no shortage of milestones.

So when he has a billion, he uses the billions as collateral, borrows another billion, and invests in a certain project, or variety.

That's not a lot of leverage, is it?

When you go to buy a house, you often have 5 times leverage, and he only has 2 times.

So if there is a drawdown, the project he invested in will lose 50%.

At this moment, is he still rich?

No, he has become poor, insolvent, and cleared overnight.

Because the billion you borrowed has to be repaid, and 50% of the loss can only be taken out of your personal assets.

You see, it takes every night to go from a poor person to a rich person, but from a rich person back to a poor person, one night is enough.

So what is the topic that we often talk about when evaluating a professional investor? is the maximum drawdown.

What is the maximum drawdown you have experienced in your entire investment career, which is a very important indicator.

If you don't study this, you can't be a rich person in the true sense of the word, strictly speaking.

Because you're just playing with luck, or rather, you're just being played with by luck.

When I was young, I admired the kind of young talent who had an annual return on investment of more than 1,000 times, and I felt that I was very different from others.

You heard it right, not dozens of times, but a thousand times.

But after so many years, it has long been disenchanted.

Because when you see that biggest drawdown of him is a loss, you know that he is just fluttering on the spot.

It's like when he was 25 years old, he was very good at the age of 30, and he returned to the starting point of 20 years old at the age of 30, and when you went to see him at the age of 40, he was still fluttering in that novice village.

So I said, for this kind of person, I have long been disenchanted.

Some people don't understand this.

One of the questions they often ask me is, why can't investors stop it? For example, how much money you make, you will wash your hands from now on, and you will be isolated from risks.

This answer is very mathematical, and you need to draw a wealth curve.

The wealth of a person's life is a curve, twisting and turning.

There are only two indicators that are important in this curve, one is the slope, how fast you are rising, and the other is the maximum drawdown, which is to zoom in and see, those glitch points in the middle of your curve.

There is no way to avoid the maximum drawdown on the life curve, if you can, then you don't need to predict the life curve, you just go to the financial market to find a random variety to predict its curve inflection point.

Even if it only fluctuates by 2% per day, you add 100 times leverage, it's not difficult to double, right? Double every day, or in two months, Buffett will have to call you brother.

Does Warren Buffett call you brother? Didn't you? If your uncle is still your uncle after so many years, it means that your entire assumption is wrong.

In fact, as long as your math teacher teaches you, you should be aware that:

Your maximum drawdown actually determines your leverage.

For example, if your maximum drawdown is 50%, then the leverage you can use must not exceed 2 times, otherwise when that historical node comes, you will hang up, you will be cleared, and you will return to the pre-liberation period overnight.

Then if your maximum drawdown is only 5%, it means that even if you use more than a dozen times the leverage, it is safe.

Let's think about it, think about it for a long time, and think about it from the perspective of the entire life wealth curve, who is the final winner?

The latter, of course.

Based on the principle of risk management, your maximum drawdown actually determines the maximum leverage you can use, which indirectly determines the slope of your life wealth curve.

Because the game itself is about who can use a larger lever under the premise of absolute safety.

The essence of the wealth game of life is my two sentences above, if you have to describe it mathematically.

Of course, you can not listen, you say you don't listen to it, Wang Ba chanted the scriptures, I don't want to listen to you use mathematics to express it, I just want to follow the feeling.

Whatever you want.

You can make your leverage greater than your maximum drawdown, which is actually from a mathematical point of view, you are just tossing around.

How you earn it, you have to lose it, there are too many such life cases.

I just casually describe the wealth curve here, and throwing it out is the joys and sorrows of thousands of families.

Do you really think that if you learn to consume like a rich man, and if someone lives in a mansion and you live in a mansion, you will become him?

You are still following the example of Dongshi, and you have not changed your life.

The ups and downs are not called wealth, they are called a game and a dream, and the old rich is really rich.

So when I've seen the ups and downs of too many people, I'm going to describe this mathematical curve in the simplest way possible.

How?

Appearance.

I said that Zhang San was poor, you don't care if he was rich or bad when he was young, he was old and poor in the end.

I said that Li Si is a blessed minister, you don't care if he had no money when he was young, or he walked slowly, he was always a rich and noble man.

This is the description of philosophy.

What is the nature of the phase? It's that life wealth curve.

What is the essence of Fu? It's how you can reduce the maximum drawdown of your life and thus increase the use of safe leverage.

Looking at the appearance is to see that the wealth curve of your life is so bumpy, no matter how hard you try, it will be in vain, and sooner or later you will be beaten back to the prototype.

To see the blessing is to see if you can safely pass the hurdles of the historical nodes of the largest drawdown in your life.

Why are some people so blessed and others so declining?

You can see the way he does things.

So yesterday I talked about the art of knowing people, that is, how to look at yourself and the wealth curve of other people's lives.

In the final analysis, the curvature of his curve, the biggest retracement, once drawn, his fate is transparent in your eyes.

There are some people, unless they live short enough, bad luck is inevitable; Some people, as long as they live long enough, success is also inevitable.

There is nothing magical, the wealth curve of life is clearly indicated.

The fate is born from nature, but this wealth and destiny curve is drawn by you the day after tomorrow.

Pay attention to the official account, the compass in the world, in order to read the text "Watching people, how to see if a person is a potential stock"