The European Championship has reached the semi-finals. In the past, when we guessed the championship, it was all a rambling blind guess, after all, there were too many teams. But as the stage progresses, there are fewer and fewer teams, and guessing now may be more targeted. And the top four teams have played so far, and we have a general understanding of their general appearance and state. Even if you guess, it won't be a blind guess.
In terms of strength, Spain, France, England, and the Netherlands are definitely high and low, but the gap is minimal. And so far in the game, many unexpected details can determine the overall situation, so it is of little sense to discuss who is stronger from the perspective of winning the championship. Generally speaking, at this juncture, everyone likes to sort out the previous historical data and try to find some metaphysical evidence from the laws of history. In fact, these so-called laws are nothing more than coincidences. But I have to say that sometimes these coincidences are really lethal, and you don't know when they will fail, maybe they will continue when they come to you.
The coincidence, or pattern, that we are talking about today is related to Spain and is very beneficial to them. If this rule continues, then Spain will be the champions of Euro 2024.
It all starts with Germany.
As a football powerhouse, Germany has hosted many world competitions, and so far, they have hosted a total of five major tournaments, namely the 1974 World Cup, the 1988 European Championship, the 2005 Confederations Cup, the 2006 World Cup, and this time, Euro 2024.
As for the results, it should be said that there is a bit of a gap between our expectations and our expectations. After all, Germany is a strong team, fighting on home soil, and deserve to win the championship. But in fact, except for the 1974 World Cup, when they were crowned at home, they were eliminated on the other four occasions. It's just that the nodes eliminated are different, three are semi-finals and one is a quarter-finals.
The question is, who has the ability to take away the championship on the doorstep of Germany? The answer is to eliminate the German team.
In the semi-finals of the 1988 European Championship, Germany lost 2-1 to the Netherlands, and the Netherlands reached the final and defeated the Soviet Union 2-0 to win the only major championship to date.
In the semi-finals of the 2005 Confederations Cup, Germany lost 2:3 to Brazil. Brazil, on the other hand, reached the final and staged an epic victory, defeating Argentina 4-1.
In the semi-finals of the 2006 World Cup, Germany lost 0:2 to Italy. Then there was Zinedine Zidane's iron head affair and the great left-back Grosso scoring the final penalty to help Italy win their fourth World Cup title.
Note that this is talking about the elimination of Germany, not just the defeat of Germany. In fact, in the 1974 World Cup, Germany lost 0:1 to East Germany in the group stage, but it did not involve elimination. And Germany is also suspected of deliberately losing and picking the rematch group. The stage involving elimination can only be the knockout stage after the group is promoted.
Well, since Germany is the host of the tournament, and the team that eliminated Germany will win the championship, is it the turn of Spain to eliminate Germany in the quarterfinals of Euro 2024?
Judging from the current situation, Spain is indeed the smoothest team in this tournament, in contrast, France and England have no individual ability, and the overall is still very screwed. Therefore, if Spain wins the championship, it is also reasonable.
However, there will always be a moment when the so-called law fails. Wasn't the curse of the defending World Cup champions out of the group that we are familiar with overcome by France themselves? Moreover, this so-called curse has only started since the new century, and it does not apply to Brazil.
In fact, in this European Cup, there is a rule, with Spain eliminating Germany, it has become invalid. As we gave in the previous example, Germany can at least make it to the last four if they are the hosts. But this time, they actually stopped in the quarterfinals and fell below the historical lower limit. I don't know what the results of these two laws will be when they are hedged.