Recently, a view has sparked heated discussions on social media: "Real estate must be saved, it must continue to rise, and zero house prices are equal to zero assets". This remark reflects the current society's anxiety and expectation for the future direction of the real estate market. However, we need to think calmly: does the real estate market really have to go up? Does zeroing in house prices really mean zeroing in assets?
Looking back at the development of China's real estate market, real estate has always been an important engine of China's economy, from the welfare housing in the early days of reform and opening up, to the commercial housing reform in the 90s, and then to the rapid growth period in the early 21st century. However, in recent years, with the decline of the demographic dividend and the slowdown of urbanization, the real estate market is facing unprecedented challenges.
The impact of real estate on the economy cannot be ignored. It is not only directly related to upstream and downstream industries such as the construction industry and the materials industry, but also affects consumer demand through the wealth effect. But we cannot see it as the only pillar of economic development. Over-reliance on real estate can lead to resource misallocation and inhibit innovation in other industries.
Housing price stability is indeed a matter of social stability. But "stable" is not the same as "sustained growth". Reasonable housing prices should match the income level of residents, and not become a heavy burden on the shoulders of young people. What we should be pursuing is a healthy, sustainable real estate market, not a never-ending "rising machine".
The factors that affect the real estate market are manifold. In addition to the economic environment and demographic structure, policy orientation also plays a key role. In recent years, the policy tone of "housing for living, not speculation" has shown the government's determination to regulate the real estate market. We should realize that houses are for living, not for speculation.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is a cautionary tale of caution. In 2007, the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble triggered the global financial crisis, which was a wake-up call that an over-reliance on real estate growth model was unsustainable. On the other hand, in China, in recent years, the real estate market has been regulated through measures such as purchase restrictions and loan restrictions, which have curbed speculation to a certain extent and promoted the rational return of the market.
We should not equate "house price zeroing" with "asset zeroing". A country's assets include not only real estate, but also human capital, scientific and technological innovation, cultural soft power and other aspects. Overemphasizing the importance of real estate can overshadow other, more promising development directions.
We need to look at the development of the real estate market rationally. It is true that it is an important part of the economy, but it should not be the only dependency. The government should continue to improve the housing system, balance the supply of affordable housing and commercial housing, and encourage the development of other industries to achieve economic diversification. Only then can we build a healthier and more resilient economy that lays the foundation for a sustainable future.