Is TSMC "moving out" of Taiwan? Overseas production capacity accounts for only 15%!

Xinzhixun

2024-07-06 21:56Posted on the official account of Shanghai Xinzhixun

On July 5, it was reported that TSMC is about to complete the first phase of the construction of its wafer factory (Fab 21) in Phoenix, Arizona, USA, and will soon begin large-scale production of its 4nm and 5nm process technology, and will complete more phases of construction before 2030, which will greatly improve its overall production capacity and global footprint.

Although TSMC has begun to build factories in the United States, Japan, and Germany in recent years, it has caused concerns about TSMC's capacity transfer in Taiwan, China. Recently, experts such as Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund pointed out that even if TSMC's overseas factories are fully operational, they will only account for about 10% of TSMC's total global production capacity. After calculation, it is also expected that this proportion will only be about 15%.

According to TSMC's financial report, by the end of 2023, TSMC's global annual production capacity will be about 15.3 million pieces of 12-inch equivalent wafers, and the monthly production capacity will be 1.275 million pieces of 12-inch equivalent wafers.

At present, TSMC has built a planned monthly production capacity of 55,000 12-inch wafers in Kumamoto Wafer Fab 1 in Japan, based on 22/28nm to 12/16nm process technology. The Kumamoto Plant 2 will be upgraded to 6nm and 7nm processes, and will also provide 40nm process technology to meet the needs of Japanese customers, with a planned monthly production capacity of about 48,000 12-inch wafers (63,000 wafers per month if all 40nm are produced). Overall, the combined monthly production capacity of the two fabs exceeds 103,000 12-inch wafers. The rumored Kumamoto No. 3 plant has not yet been announced.

In Phoenix, Arizona, TSMC has announced an investment of more than $65 billion to build three phases of its Fab 21 factory. Fab 1, including the 4nm process, has postponed mass production from 2024 to 2025. Fab 2, which was originally scheduled to start mass production of 3nm in 2026, may not be mass-produced until 2028. The construction site of TSMC's fab in Phoenix is currently busy, with about 8,000 workers working on the site every day, and even reaching 12,000 at its peak. After the completion of the two fabs, the total annual production capacity of the two fabs will exceed 600,000 pieces of 12-inch wafers, and the monthly production capacity will be about 50,000 pieces of 12-inch wafers. As for the third wafer fab, TSMC did not announce the details, but it is expected to be mass-produced in the late 20s of the 21st century (2029~2030), and may use 2nm or more advanced process technology, with a monthly production capacity of about 20,000 12-inch wafers.

In Dresden, Germany, TSMC has previously announced that it will jointly invest about 10 billion euros with Bosch, Infineon, NXP and other three European semiconductor companies to establish a European semiconductor manufacturing company (ESMC), which plans to start construction of a 12-inch wafer factory in Dresden, Germany in the second half of 2024, with a monthly production capacity of 40,000 12-inch wafers, based on TSMC's 28/22nm and 16/12nm process technology, and aims to be put into production by the end of 2027.

In Chinese mainland, TSMC's Shanghai Songjiang plant has a monthly production capacity of about 60,000 8-inch wafers, which is equivalent to a monthly production capacity of about 27,000 12-inch wafers. Nanjing TSMC has been mass-producing the 16/12nm process many years ago, with a monthly production capacity of 20,000 12-inch wafers. In 2021, TSMC expanded the 28nm process at its Nanjing plant, adding 20,000 pieces/month of 12-inch wafer production capacity. In other words, TSMC's total production capacity in Chinese mainland is about 67,000 12-inch wafers per month.

From a comprehensive calculation, even if TSMC's wafer fabs in the United States, Japan and Germany have announced full mass production, the total monthly production capacity is only about 280,000 pieces of 12-inch wafers, compared with TSMC's total production capacity of 1.275 million pieces of 12-inch wafers at the end of 2023, accounting for about 22%. Of course, this part of the new production capacity in the future should be counted into the total global production capacity, in this case, TSMC's overseas production capacity accounts for about 18%.

However, at present, TSMC's wafers in the United States, Japan and Germany have not yet been mass-produced, even after all of them are mass-produced and fully produced by 2030, and TSMC's production capacity in Taiwan will also achieve significant growth during this period.

According to the data disclosed by TSMC, TSMC's 3nm production capacity will be increased to 3 times this year, and it will inevitably be further expanded in the future. In addition, it is expected that TSMC will mass-produce the 2nm cutting-edge process in 2025, and TSMC is building Fab 20 and Kaohsiung Fab 22 wafer fabs in Taiwan, China. In addition, the latest Taiwanese media broke the news that due to the strong demand from customers for the 2nm process, TSMC's 2nm production capacity is estimated to be further expanded, and Zhuke Baoshan can cover the fourth phase and the second phase of Kaohsiung. In addition, TSMC also plans to mass-produce the more advanced A16 process around 2027.

If these planned new factories can be mass-produced in 2030, then according to the monthly production capacity of a new factory of 20,000 12-inch wafers, and the island's planned 3nm and 2nm planned production capacity, TSMC's new monthly production capacity in Taiwan may exceed 300,000 pieces of 12-inch wafers by 2030.

According to the above data, by 2030, after TSMC's production capacity outside Taiwan Island of China is fully operational, the monthly production capacity will only be about 280,000 pieces of 12-inch wafers, but its total global monthly production capacity may reach about 1.855 million pieces of 12-inch wafers by then, which also means that its overseas production capacity may only account for 15%.

Editor: Xinzhixun-Rogue Sword

View original image 47K

•