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Text: Broken Boat Cold
Edited by Broken Boat Cold
Preface
After 15 days of stalemate, the two sides finally reached a consensus, but is this really the end of this diplomatic game? The broken ship must be towed away, what kind of mystery is hidden behind this decision? And why is Duterte warning of war at this time?
The South China Sea: From Confrontation to Dialogue
On June 17, a sudden clash broke out in the waters near Second Thomas Shoal, and the Philippine special forces' adventurous operation was resolutely blocked by the Chinese coast guard, resulting in eight Filipino personnel being injured to varying degrees.
This incident is like a bombshell, pushing China-Philippines relations to the forefront, and the Philippine side first called it a "misunderstanding" and then changed its face to accuse China of "making the first move".
Was this just a deliberate provocation? Or is there something else going on? Surprisingly, however, after 15 days of stalemate, the two sides reached a consensus.
On July 2, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong and Philippine Vice Foreign Minister Lazaro held talks in Manila in a surprisingly harmonious atmosphere, with the two sides agreeing to continue dialogue and manage differences through bilateral consultation mechanisms.
This dramatic shift has led one to ponder: what prompted the Philippines to soften its attitude? How did China skillfully defuse the crisis while safeguarding its sovereignty? In fact, behind this diplomatic game is a perfect display of China's strength and wisdom.
In the face of the Philippines' provocations, China has not only demonstrated its determination to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, but also maintained diplomatic flexibility, and this strategy of "combining rigidity and softness" is a vivid embodiment of major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.
However, the South China Sea issue is far from over, and the broken ship must be towed away, although this decision is a reflection of the consensus between the two sides, it is likely that there will be many challenges in its implementation, after all, the broken ship has been beached at Ren'ai Jiao for 25 years.
In this complex geopolitical game, China needs to continue to maintain strategic focus, adhere to its principled position, and respond flexibly, so that it can contribute to regional peace and stability while safeguarding its national interests.
America's Shadow: The Philippines' Driver
In this game in the South China Sea, the United States looms, as the "strong backing" of the Philippines, the United States has been behind the scenes, but when the real crisis comes, the performance of the United States has disappointed the Philippines.
After the June 17 conflict, the Philippines had been expecting U.S. support, but surprisingly, the two U.S. aircraft carriers that had been cruising in nearby waters quietly moved away, retreating until they were 1,500 nautical miles away from the South China Sea.
This move has undoubtedly dealt a blow to the Philippines, and the United States' "desertion" behavior has exposed its true intentions on the South China Sea issue, and it wants to use the Philippines to contain China, but it is unwilling to take real risks for the Philippines.
This self-serving attitude has caused the Philippine government to rethink its policy toward the United States, and at the same time, China's hardline attitude has also made the Philippines feel great pressure, and the China Coast Guard Order No. 3 has been issued.
As well as the live-fire training of several Type 055 destroyers in the South China Sea, they have sent a clear signal to the Philippines: China's determination to defend its territorial sovereignty is as firm as a rock, and the Philippine government is in a dilemma in the face of China's display of strength and the unreliability of the United States.
Continue to provoke China? Or is it a search for reconciliation? It was in this complex situation that led former President Rodrigo Duterte to warn of war, sharply criticizing the Marcos administration for being used by the United States.
Duterte's warning of the risk of war caused by the deployment of missiles at Philippine military bases is undoubtedly a wake-up call to the Philippine government, and in fact, Duterte's warning reflects domestic concerns about the country's current foreign policy.
A growing number of Filipinos are realizing that over-reliance on the United States could put the Philippines in a dangerous position, and they want the government to adopt a more balanced foreign policy and seek a balance between China and the United States.
This change in domestic public opinion is also one of the important factors that has softened the Philippine government's attitude, after all, no government can ignore the trend of public opinion, and the Philippines is facing a difficult choice in this complex geopolitical game.
Will it continue to follow the United States, or will it seek rapprochement with China? This choice is not only in the interests of the Philippines itself, but will also affect the peace and stability of the entire region, and for China, it is an opportunity to show the wisdom of a great power.
While adhering to the principled position, it is also necessary to give the Philippines sufficient respect and understanding and create conditions for the improvement of bilateral relations, so as to truly achieve mutual benefit and win-win results and promote regional peace and development.
Domestic pressures: the cause of the turning point in the Philippines
With the deterioration of Sino-Philippine relations, the Philippine domestic economy and public opinion pressure are increasing, and it has become an important force in promoting the adjustment of government policies.
Since March this year, China-Philippines relations have continued to deteriorate, which has directly affected the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries, and the import of fertilizers and other production materials urgently needed by the Philippines has been blocked, which has seriously affected agricultural production.
At the same time, the share of Philippine fruits and other agricultural products in the Chinese market is also at risk of being carved up by other ASEAN countries, and this economic pressure has made the Filipino people feel the cost of confronting China, and what worries the Filipino people even more is the looming of the clouds of war.
On June 28, Lambino, chairman of the Philippine Association for Chinese Understanding, shed tears at the venue during his visit to China, expressing his strong desire not to want the Philippines to become a battlefield.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte seized the opportunity to issue a "war warning" to the Marcos administration in a public speech in the face of this situation, which led to the growing anti-war voices in the Philippines
Duterte's rhetoric has been widely echoed, effectively hedging US influence on the Marcos government, and it is worth noting that the political game between the Duterte family and the Marcos family also played a role in it.
Since Duterte's daughter, Sarah Zimmerman Duterte-Kaphu, parted ways with Marcos, the two families have been pitted against each other, and as representatives of the "pro-China" faction, the Duterte family's support among the public has been rising.
In the midst of strong pressure on the Marcos administration, which has been forced to re-examine its China policy in the face of internal and external difficulties, it has realized that it will not only fail to gain substantial benefits by continuing to confront China.
Instead, it could push the Philippines into a dangerous position. This shift in perception culminated in the July 2 China-Philippines dialogue, but we should also note that the Philippine government's change in attitude did not happen overnight.
After reaching a consensus with China, the Philippine foreign minister still stressed that "it will spare no effort to safeguard its interests in the South China Sea", indicating that the Philippine government is still seeking a balance between the United States and China, and its policy adjustment still has certain limitations.
This is a rare diplomatic opportunity for China, and we should seize the opportunity of the Philippines' softening to enhance mutual trust through economic cooperation and other means, while maintaining the necessary strategic focus and military deterrence.
Only in this way can we bring China-Philippines relations back on the right track while safeguarding national interests, and the change in attitude of the Philippines reflects the complexity of the regional situation and reminds us that we must have a firm stance when dealing with our neighboring relations.
It is also necessary to have a flexible strategy and, more importantly, a long-term vision, so that we can safeguard national interests and promote regional peace in a complex and ever-changing international environment.
The battle for shipbreaking: a microcosm of the game in the South China Sea
The issue of the "broken ship" on Ren'ai Jiao has become the focus of this Sino-Philippine game, and the warship, named "Sierra Madre", has been deliberately stranded on Ren'ai Jiao by the Philippines since 1999, becoming a symbol of the Philippine side's "actual control".
However, in the latest consensus, the wrecked ship must be towed, which is undoubtedly a major victory for Chinese diplomacy, but we cannot underestimate the difficulty of implementing this decision.
Over the past 25 years, the wrecked ship has become an important bargaining chip for the Philippines in the South China Sea, and the Philippines has been delaying its dismantling under various pretexts, and has even sent ships to "repair" it on several occasions
In June this year, the Philippines sent three ships to try to break through the Chinese coast guard blockade and repair the "Sierra Madre", triggering a serious maritime standoff, and China's attitude on this has been clear: the broken ship must be towed.
This is not only necessary to preserve sovereignty, but also necessary to eliminate the potential potential for conflict, but how to achieve this goal without exacerbating the contradictions is a test of the wisdom of China's diplomacy, notably in the latest dialogue.
China's reiteration of its undisputed position on the sovereignty issue of Nanhai Zhudao not only strengthens China's sovereignty claims, but also leaves room for dialogue between the two sides, and shows that China is willing to resolve disputes through peaceful means while adhering to principles.
At the same time, we have also seen China's progress in crisis management, with the issuance of Coast Guard Order No. 3 being a good example of China's determination to safeguard its sovereignty while giving the other side a one-month buffer period to avoid a sharp deterioration of the situation.
We should also be soberly aware that the South China Sea issue is far more complex than the "shipbreaking" issue, and the United States, as a major power outside the region, has been fueling the troubles.
The complex geopolitical game of using the Philippines and other countries to contain China, but not willing to take real risks for its allies, will continue to test China's diplomatic wisdom, and China needs to maintain its strategic focus in the face of this situation.
On the one hand, it is necessary to adhere to the basic policy of "sovereignty belongs to us, shelving disputes, and joint development", and on the other hand, it is also necessary to actively promote the "Belt and Road" initiative and enhance mutual trust with neighboring countries through economic cooperation.
epilogue
From confrontation to dialogue, from stalemate to consensus, the 15-day diplomatic game has not only demonstrated China's determination to safeguard national sovereignty, but also demonstrated the mainland's flexible and pragmatic diplomatic wisdom.
Although there are still challenges ahead, as long as we adhere to peaceful development and mutual benefit, we will be able to resolve contradictions and promote regional peace and stability.
Reference: China News Network 2024-07-04 "After 15 days of stalemate, China and the Philippines reached a consensus that the broken ship must be towed away, and Duterte issued a war warning"
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