- Analysis of today's non-ferrous metals market
Data released overnight showed that the Federal Reserve's labor market is cooling, and the dollar index has retreated from its highs, which is good for the strength of external metals. Driven by the weakening of the domestic stock market during the day, it gave up gains in the afternoon. As of the end of the afternoon, Shanghai copper led the rise of 0.99%; Shanghai zinc rose 0.65%; Shanghai tin rose 0.28%; Shanghai nickel rose 0.22%; Shanghai lead rose 0.1%; Only Shanghai Aluminum fell slightly by 0.05%.
- futures market
- spot market
- Tomorrow's non-ferrous metals market trend forecast
- Copper/copper scrap
As of the close of the afternoon, the main Shanghai copper 2408 contract closed at 79870 (+780, +0.99%). On the macro front, the United States successively released the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June, the number of weekly jobless claims and the number of ADP employment in June. On the fundamentals, Chile's national copper company expects copper production to rebound in the second half of the year, and the tight supply at the mine end is expected to be eased to a certain extent. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly in the night, or drop to near the 79,500 support level, and the short-term main range will refer to 7.9-80,500.
In the morning, Foshan Dali Freight Yard reported 73,500-73,700 yuan/ton, Linyi Metal City pure strip 73,600 yuan/ton, and Baoding joint stock 73,500 yuan/ton. On the upward side, the price of copper rose by nearly 1,000 yuan, and the holders shipped one after another, taking profits and making acceptable transactions. The raw material inventory of some copper mills is about to bottom out, and in order to maintain production, the demand for stocking has increased, and the willingness to raise prices is obvious.
- Aluminum/scrap aluminum
The pressure at the 20-day moving average is greater, the day Shanghai aluminum failed to effectively stand above 20,500, with the pullback of the stock market, the disk is rising and falling, as of three o'clock in the afternoon closing, the main 2408 contract fell 10 at the end of the day, a decline of 0.05%, closed at 20420, the short-term continued to fluctuate around 20,300-20,500, the current fundamentals are weak pattern has not changed, the spot continues to be discounted, the social treasury to the library is not smooth, there is still a lot of accumulation, tomorrow aluminum prices or a slight pullback.
Today's spot aluminum rose 90, the price of scrap aluminum rose by about 100, the price of spray paint in East China was mostly 15750-15950, the bright aluminum wire was 17800-18000, and the cans were 14400; Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose, and scrap aluminum holders rebounded in their enthusiasm for shipments, but due to the advent of the off-season of consumption, orders from downstream recycled aluminum plants declined, and the willingness to chase up was weak.
Suggested actions:
The number of U.S. jobless claims has increased for nine consecutive weeks, hitting the peak since November 2021, the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September have increased again, the dollar has weakened, and London aluminum has rebounded overnight, but the pressure on the 20-day moving average above the main force of Shanghai aluminum is obvious, and it has fallen back after the night market. Failed to effectively stand above 20,500, still hovering around here in the near future, the current macro news is improving, aluminum prices have rebounded, but the current fundamentals are still weak, and high inventories also make aluminum prices continue to have insufficient upward momentum.
It is expected that the price of scrap aluminum is more stable, the fundamentals are weak and dragged down, beware of the price falling after the shock, it is recommended that the holder of the goods in and out quickly, not too much inventory, manufacturers depending on the order and raw material inventory, buy on demand.
- Lead/waste batteries
This afternoon, Shanghai lead fluctuated in a narrow range, Shanghai lead 2408 contract closed at 19570, up 20, up 0.1%, fundamentally, imported lead ingots are expected to flow into the domestic market, the supply side is only to alleviate part of the worries, the substantial supply balance has not yet been reached, it is difficult to reverse the tight pattern of supply and demand in the short term, maintain bullish thinking in the medium term, reference to the operating range of 19000-20500, it is recommended to buy dips in operation.
On July 4, the spot lead was flat, the price of waste batteries remained stable, Shanghai lead adjusted sideways in the morning, the peak season of the waste battery market, the contradiction between supply and demand continued, and it is expected that there will be no substantial changes in the supply pattern of waste batteries in the short term, and the tax-included prices of electric vehicle batteries in Hubei, Ningxia and other regions are flat today, around 11,500 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries is expected to remain stable in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips.
Suggested actions:
It is expected that today's lead price is flat, the price of waste batteries remains stable, the market price of waste batteries remains high, the tax-included price of electric vehicle batteries in Anhui, Shandong and other regions is around 11,500 yuan/ton, and the market price of waste batteries is high, resulting in low refinery profits, the operating rate is lowered, and the shock of Shanghai lead in early trading continues.
- zinc
As of three o'clock closing, the main 2408 contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24670, up 160, an increase of 0.65%, and the 2407 contract closed at 24630, up 180, an increase of 0.74%, the upstream and downstream of the market continued to see-saw during the day, and the status quo of tight mines at home and abroad is difficult to change, while weak demand led to the expansion of refinery production reduction, and supply is expected to continue to contract, but the terminal demand recovery is slow, spot trading continues to be cold, and supply and demand are weak in the background. The market speculation is aggravated, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the possibility of capital entry, and it is recommended to wait and see or take profits in batches.
- tin
Shanghai tin narrowed its gains in the afternoon, and as of 3 p.m., the main Shanghai tin contract closed at 274260, up 760, or 0.28%. The main contract 2408 traded 106589 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1044 lots to 34913 lots. The Shanghai tin futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 14,738 tons, a decrease of 62 tons or about 0.42% from the previous trading day. Expectations of a Fed rate cut have risen, and the US dollar has retreated to boost non-ferrous metals. However, from the perspective of consumption, the downstream of tin just needs to replenish the warehouse, the overall off-season continues, the tin price is weak, and the tin price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, focusing on the breakthrough of 275,000 pressure.
- nickel
As of 3 p.m., the main Shanghai nickel 2409 contract closed at 137,590 yuan, up 0.22%. The intraday trading of the main contract weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The trading volume was 171697 lots, the open interest was 113204 lots, the trading volume decreased by 16,584 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6,747 lots.
On the macro front, the number of initial jobless claims hit a new high since January last week, and the number of continuing jobless claims was the highest since November 2021. In terms of spot, the spot premium and downward trend remained unchanged, although the number of some downstream orders remained stable, but the industry is currently in the off-season. The majority of users do not have a high demand for inventory replenishment, and overall acceptance is not expected to be too high as prices rise. From a fundamental point of view, in July, the basic price of Indonesia's domestic trade has rebounded, the demand side of mine prices has weakened, stainless steel consumption has gradually entered the off-season, and the output of July has declined significantly, and the new energy terminal production data has declined, dragging down the demand for nickel sulfate.
It is expected that the short-term nickel price will run in the range of 13.4-142,000.