China Meteorological Administration Releases Blue Book on Climate Change in China (2024)

CCTV Beijing, July 4 (Reporter Huang Yuling) On the 4th, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference, at which the "Blue Book of China's Climate Change (2024)" was released.

According to reports, comprehensive observations of the climate system and a number of key indicators show that the warming trend of the climate system continues. In 2023, global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and sea level height all reached new highs, and Antarctic sea ice extent reached new lows.

The global warming trend continues. The global average surface temperature in 2023 is the highest since meteorological observations began in 1850, and the global average temperature in the last 10 years (2014~2023) is about 1.2°C higher than the pre-industrial level (1850~1900 average). In 2023, the average land surface temperature in Asia was 0.92°C higher than the average value (the 1991~2020 climate reference period is used in this report), which is the second warmest year since 1901.

The concentration of major greenhouse gases in the world is increasing year by year. In 2022, the global average atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide were 417.9 ppm, 1,923 ppb, and 335.8 ppb, respectively, all reaching the highest levels since records began.

Global ocean warming has accelerated significantly, sea surface temperature and ocean heat content have reached new highs, and global average sea level has continued to rise. In 1870~2023, the global average sea surface temperature showed a significant upward trend. In 2023, the global average sea surface temperature was 0.35°C above the average value, the highest since 1870. During 1958~2023, the heat content of the global ocean (upper 2000 meters) showed a significant increasing trend, and ocean warming accelerated significantly since the 90s of the 20th century. In 2023, the global ocean heat content reached a new high. Global mean sea level continues to rise, reaching its highest level since satellite observations began in 2023.

The global glacier retreat is accelerating, and it is in a state of high material loss; The extent of Arctic sea ice is decreasing significantly, and the extent of Antarctic sea ice is at a new low. In 1960~2023, the world's glaciers as a whole are in a state of melting and retreating, and the glacier melting has accelerated since 1985. In 2023, the global reference glacier is in a state of high mass deficit, with an average mass balance of –1229 mm water equivalent, the lowest since 1960. In 1979~2023, the Arctic sea ice extent showed a downward trend, and the sea ice extent decreased by 2.6% and 14.1% on average every 10 years in March and September, respectively. The periodic change characteristics of Antarctic sea ice extent are obvious: in 1979~2015, the fluctuation of Antarctic sea ice extent increased, and since 2016, the sea ice extent has been mainly small. In February and September 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was 38.1% and 15.1% below the average value, respectively, which was the lowest value for the same period since satellite observations began.

China is a sensitive and significant area of global climate change. In 2023, China's annual average temperature, the retreat distance at the end of the No. 1 glacier at the source of the Urumqi River, and the thickness of the active layer in the permafrost area along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway all hit new highs.

China's regional warming rate is higher than the global level over the same period, and 2023 is the warmest year since the beginning of the 20th century. During 1961~2023, the annual average surface temperature in China showed a significant upward trend, with an average increase of 0.30°C every 10 years, which was higher than the global average warming level in the same period. The average surface temperature in China in 2023 is 0.84°C higher than the average value, the warmest year since 1901.

The average annual precipitation in China is on an increasing trend, and the number of extremely heavy precipitation events is increasing. From 1961~2023, the average annual precipitation in China showed an increasing trend, with an average increase of 5.2 mm every 10 years. The average annual precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet showed a significant increase trend, with an average increase of 6.9 mm per 10 years, while the average annual precipitation in southwest China showed a decreasing trend of 10.7 mm per 10 years. During 1961~2023, the frequency of extreme daily precipitation events in China showed an increasing trend. The number of days of annual cumulative rainstorm (daily precipitation ≥50 mm) in China showed an increasing trend, with an average increase of 4.1% every 10 years.

The number of sand and dust days in northern China showed a decreasing trend, and the intensity of typhoons making landfall in China fluctuated more intensively. In 1961~2023, the average number of dust days in northern China showed a decreasing trend, reaching the lowest value in recent years and rebounding slightly. In 1949~2023, the number of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea showed a decreasing trend. Since the late 90s of the 20th century, the average intensity fluctuation of typhoons that have landed in China has increased. In July 2023, Typhoon Doksuri made landfall with great intensity and continued to move northward after landfall, causing historically rare extremely heavy rainfall in many places in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and basin-wide flooding in the Haihe River Basin.

The inter-annual variation of surface water resources in China is obvious, and the water level of Qinghai Lake has continued to rise in the past 20 years. In 2023, China's surface water resources will be 5.7% lower than the average value. The basins of the northwest and southeast rivers were 13.3% and 10.8% lower than the normal values, respectively. In 1961~2004, the water level of Qinghai Lake showed a downward trend, and since 2005, the water level of Qinghai Lake has risen for 19 consecutive years, and the water level of Qinghai Lake will reach 3196.6 meters in 2023, which has exceeded the early 60s of the 20th century.

China's coastal sea level is generally on an accelerating upward trend. During 1980~2023, the sea level change along the coast of China showed an accelerated upward trend, with an increase rate of 3.5 mm/year. In 1993~2023, the sea level rise rate along China's coast was 4.0 mm/year, higher than the global average (3.4 mm/year) during the same period. In 2023, the sea level along China's coast will be 72 mm higher than the average of 1993~2011.

The melting trend of mountain glaciers in western China is accelerating, and the permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway is degraded significantly. The No. 1 glacier at the source of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains, the Musidao glacier in the Altai Mountains, the No. 12 glacier in the Laohugou Mountains in the Qilian Mountains, the Xiaodongkemadi glacier in the source area of the Yangtze River, and the No. 1 glacier in the Hengduan Mountains all showed an accelerated melting trend. In 2023, the mass balance of the No. 1 glacier in Urumqi Heyuan No. 1 is the second lowest value since the beginning of continuous observation records, and the retreat distance at the end of the east and west branches of No. 1 glacier in Urumqi Heyuan No. 1 is the highest since the observation records began. During 1981~2023, the thickness of the active layer in the permafrost area along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway showed a significant increasing trend, with an average thickness of 20.2 cm per 10 years, and the average thickness of the active layer in the permafrost area in 2023 was 260.0 cm, which was the highest value since the continuous observation record.

The overall vegetation cover in China has increased steadily, showing a continuous trend of greening. In 2000~2023, China's annual average normalized vegetation index (NDVI) showed a significant upward trend, and the average NDVI in China in 2023 was 0.371, an increase of 10.6% compared with the average value of 2001~2020, and the third highest value since 2000.

The spring phenological period of representative plants in China showed an early trend. In 1963~2023, the beginning of the leaf development period of Acer chinensis at Beijing Station, Robinia pseudoacacia at Shenyang Station, Weeping willow at Hefei Station, Sweetgum Tree at Guilin Station and Acer colorifolia at Xi'an Station were on average 3.4 days, 1.4 days, 2.3 days, 2.7 days and 3.0 days earlier every 10 years, respectively, and the beginning of the leaf development period of Acer colorifolia at Xi'an Station in 2023 was the earliest since the observation records began.

The regional ecological and climatic conditions are improving. In 2005~2023, the desert area in the Shiyang River Basin showed a decreasing trend. In 2000~2023, the autumn vegetation index in the karst area of Southwest China showed a significant increasing trend, and the regional ecological status was steadily improving. During 1973~2023, the area of coastal mangrove forests in China decreased first and then increased. In 2023, it has largely recovered to 1990 levels.

The greenhouse gas concentration at the Waliguan atmospheric background station in Qinghai showed an upward trend, and the optical thickness of aerosols in China showed a downward trend. From 1990~2022, the carbon dioxide concentration at the Waliguan atmospheric background station in Qinghai, China increased year by year. In 2022, the annual average concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide at Wariguan Station reached 419.3 ppm, 1979 ppb and 336.5 ppb, respectively, which were roughly comparable to the average concentrations in the northern hemisphere and slightly higher than the global average in 2022. During 2004~2014, the annual average fluctuation of aerosol optical thickness at atmospheric background stations in Shangdianzi in Beijing, Lin'an in Zhejiang and Longfengshan in Heilongjiang increased. After that, the volatility trend decreased. In 2023, the aerosol optical thickness of Shangdianzi, Lin'an, and Longfengshan stations decreased slightly compared with 2022, and the Shangdianzi and Lin'an stations were the lowest values since the observation records began.

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