On Monday (July 2) in the European market, spot gold fluctuated and is currently trading near $2,330 per ounce, although the market's expectations that Trump will win the election have risen, providing support to the dollar and putting pressure on gold prices; However, the ISM manufacturing PMI data in the United States for June was weaker than market expectations and contracted for three consecutive months, biased to support the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September. The geopolitical situation and uncertainty over the French election also provided safe-haven support for gold prices.
The hot market is ready to fly! Powell's speech with the heavyweight data of the United States
During the session, investors will focus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and US job vacancy data, which are expected to trigger major market movements.
At 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Central Bank Forum held by the European Central Bank.
At 22:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, the U.S. JOLTs job vacancy data for May will be released, which is expected to be 7.9 million.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released in early June showed that the number of job openings fell more than expected in April, with the number of job openings falling to 8.059 million, down 296,000 from the end of March and the lowest level since February 2021.
The JOLTS Job Openings Report is one of the most important labor indicators for US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as Fed chair. This indicator is also the labor market data that the Fed is closely watching.
At the post-meeting press conference in June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: "Inflation risks remain highly focused. So far this year, we have not had any greater confidence in inflation in order to cut interest rates. If the economy remains stable and inflation persists, we are prepared to keep interest rates unchanged where appropriate. ”
Powell reiterated at the time that while inflation had fallen sharply from its highs, it was still too high, and stressed that this year's inflation data had not yet given the Fed "more confidence" to approach its 2% target, and that the Fed maintained its tight monetary policy stance.
Beware of Powell's hawkishness, triggering a bigger sell-off in gold
Economies.com, a well-known financial information website, wrote a new article on Tuesday to analyze the technical outlook for intraday gold.
According to Economies.com, as long as gold stays below $2340.10 an ounce, the outlook remains bearish.
At 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Central Bank Forum held by the European Central Bank.
Analysts pointed out that if Powell makes hawkish remarks, the dollar is expected to strengthen further, which will hit gold prices.
At the June post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that while inflation has fallen sharply from its highs, it is still too high. This year's inflation data has not yet given the Fed "more confidence" to approach its 2% target, and the Fed remains in its tight monetary policy stance.
Economies.com writes in the article that the price of gold remains below $2340.10 an ounce, which makes the bearish trend scenario still valid. The stochastic indicator is gradually losing positive momentum, which supports bearish expectations. For now, we are waiting for gold prices to resume bearish trend, and the next target is at $2272.06 per ounce.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart source: Economies.com)
Economies.com On the other hand, we should note that if gold breaks above $2340.10 and stays above this level, this will push gold to turn bullish and rise to $2370.00 first, with a higher bullish target at $2400.00.
Economies.com expects gold to trade between support at $2,310.00 and resistance at $2,345.00 today.
Economies.com said that the expected trend for gold prices today is bearish.
Analyst Perspective
Director Wang: Gold is not up or down, it is difficult to figure out. I can't reach 2336 on the top, I can't reach 2318 on the bottom, and I just fluctuate slightly in the middle, which is completely inconsistent with our style of making orders, so we missed and couldn't get into the list.
Wang Yang: Gold 1 hour continues to consume the momentum of the bulls, the gold rebound high is getting lower and lower, the gold high point of 2339 last week completely formed a suppressive effect, the gold rebound was suppressed down, the upper resistance is too strong, the gold bulls are powerless, powerless, gold rebounded in the afternoon near 2332 near the line fell directly, gold rebounded in the afternoon near 2332 to continue to empty, rebound 2330 can be empty first.
Nuo Hao on gold: From the current point of view, if the basis of bearishness, the second obstruction must be a manifestation of adjustment in place, but from the perspective of market rhythm, only winning 2318 can indicate the establishment of short-term bears. Therefore, the current two keys, the first price can no longer break 2338, and second, the European market continues to weaken, and breaks down to 2318, and then the US market will go short.
After continuous shocks, wait-and-see is a better strategy, relying on a small retracement of 2334 in the morning, hitting 2325 to open a weak rebound, so the short-term focus on 2334-2325, the position of the US market before the run determines the subsequent direction!
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