本文由半导体产业纵横（ID：ICVIEWS）编译自jbpress
What is the difference with Nikon, which fell from the "King of Equipment"?
In 1995, when the Japanese semiconductor industry was still highly competitive, Nikon had a 48.9% share of lithography equipment shipments, and Canon had a 28.7% share, giving Japan a total of 77.6% share. At that time, Nikon had the largest market share of lithography equipment and was known as the "king of equipment" (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Lithography Equipment Shipments and Share by Company (as of 2023) Source: Created based on Morgan Stanley data
However, ASML in the Netherlands, which had a market share of 15.9% in 1995, has since increased its market share rapidly, surpassing Nikon and Canon in 2002, with a market share of more than 80% in 2010 and 90% in 2021. In 2023, ASML will dominate with a market share of 94.2%, while Nikon's market share will drop to 3.1% and Canon's market share will drop to 2.8%.
ASML has overwhelmed its Japanese competitors in terms of throughput and availability of ArF immersive devices, which have been its flagship product since 2008. ASML has become a leading company in the field of EUV for cutting-edge lithography equipment. As a result, the Japanese presence in the field of lithography equipment seems to have disappeared.
However, if we calculate the "share of shipments by type of lithography equipment" for lithography equipment instead of the "share of shipments of EUV lithography equipment", a completely different picture arises. The author would like to discuss the following details.
Shipments and proportion of lithography equipment by companies
Figure 2 shows the number of lithography equipment shipped by each company. Between 2011 and 2014, ASML shipments decreased from 222 to 136 units. In addition, Nikon's sales were reduced from 85 to 34 units. Canon, on the other hand, saw little change in shipments, from 52 to 54 units.
Figure 2 Lithography Equipment Shipments by Company (as of 2023) Source: Created based on Morgan Stanley Securities data
However, from 2015 to 2023, ASML and Canon have seen significant growth in shipments. ASML increased from 169 to 449 units, and Canon from 80 to 187 units. Nikon's sales, on the other hand, increased from 42 to 45 units, which did not increase significantly.
Let's take a look at global lithography equipment shipments and the share of shipments by each company (Figure 3).
Figure 3 Share of Lithography Equipment Shipments by Company (as of 2023) Source: Created based on Morgan Stanley Securities data
ASML's share of shipments has stabilized at around 65%. On the other hand, Canon's market share has gradually increased from 11.4% in 2011 to less than 30% since 2015. On the other hand, Nikon's market share has gradually declined, from 23.7% in 2011 to 6.6% in 2023.
As a result, Canon simply cannot match ASML in terms of sales share, but it has nearly half of ASML's share in terms of shipments.
So, which lithography equipment does Canon ship in large quantities?
Shipments of lithography equipment by company
Figure 4 shows the shipments of various lithography equipment by each company. Only ASML can ship the most advanced lithography equipment, EUV, at a cost of 24 billion yen per unit.
As for the ArF immersion, which costs 9.8 billion yen each, ASML has 125 units and Nikon has 9 units, with ASML leading Nikon by an overwhelming margin. In the ArF dry goods market, which costs 3.1 billion yen each, ASML has 32 units and Nikon has 10 units, so Nikon is doing a little better.
Figure 4 Prices and shipments by company by lithography equipment (2023)Source: Created based on Morgan Stanley data
Among them, the largest number of KrF is 1.6 billion yen, ASML has 184 units, Nikon has only 2 units, and Canon has 56 units. Canon first appeared here, with Canon's 56 machines accounting for 30% of ASML's 184 machines. In addition, the i-line, which has a unit price of 700 million yen, shipped 55 units from ASML, 24 units from Nikon, and shipped 131 units from Canon, which is about 2.4 times that of ASML.
Note that the prices of various lithography equipment are calculated with reference to ASML's financial reports. At that time, it was converted to 1 euro = 160 yen in Japanese yen.
佳能专注于KrF和i-line
In this way, Canon's strategy is clear. Canon's strategy is to focus on KrF and i-line without touching on advanced technologies such as EUV and ArF. And this strategy really works.
This is because when it comes to making semiconductors, no matter how sophisticated, it is impossible to use only EUV; Instead, ArF immersion, ArF dry, KrF, and i-line will be used. In other words, no matter how the miniaturization of semiconductors progresses in the future, there will always be a business for KrF and i-line. Moreover, due to the maturity of the equipment, the development cost is almost negligible. Therefore, Canon's emphasis on KrF and i-line can be said to be excellent.
Nikon, on the other hand, has a less well-defined strategy than Canon. When it comes to ArF immersion and ArF drying, Nikon can't match ASML. With KrF and i-line, Canon can't be beaten. In other words, Nikon seems to be making up for ASML's shortcomings in cutting-edge devices and in making up for Canon's shortcomings in mature devices.
As mentioned at the beginning, Nikon was known as the "king of equipment" in the 90s of the 20th century. However, it has now survived thanks to ASML and Canon. You can really feel the rise and fall of things, the impermanence.
Looking ahead, ASML has begun shipping its next-generation EUV machine, High NA, in terms of cutting-edge lithography equipment. In addition, the next-generation "Hyper NA" will be developed around 2030.
In this way, it seems that Canon is focusing its business on KrF and i-line, while ASML is investing huge R&D costs to advance cutting-edge technology. I think it's "smart" for Canon to abandon the cutting-edge strategy.
*Disclaimer: This article was created by the original author. The content of the article is his personal point of view, and our reprint is only for sharing and discussion, and does not mean that we agree or agree, if you have any objections, please contact the background.