In recent days, the geopolitical repercussions of Putin's visits to North Korea and Vietnam have begun to be felt. For the United States in particular, both Vietnam's closer ties with Russia and the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and North Korea seem to be aimed at counterbalancing American influence. In response, the United States urgently dispatched Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink to visit Vietnam to reaffirm the United States' firm commitment to the US-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership. However, the United States does not seem to have a good response to the near-unlimited cooperation between North Korea and Russia, especially the treaty's provision for mutual assistance in the event of an invasion.
Even if the United States, Japan, and South Korea launch military exercises in the next phase, North Korea is not afraid, but on the contrary, it may increase the risk of military conflict on the peninsula. South Korea threatens Russia that if it provides military technology to North Korea, South Korea will increase its arms support for Ukraine, but this will hardly prevent the proximity of Russian-North Korean relations.
Faced with a sense of powerlessness over North Korea, the United States has turned its attention to China. Adm. Mark Milley, the top U.S. military general and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a seemingly strange point: Putin's signing of the Treaty with North Korea could create friction with China, which has long been North Korea's main ally. "Now there are other people pushing for an alliance between Russia and North Korea, which could exacerbate the contradictions between China and Russia, so the United States can observe how relations between these three countries develop," he stressed. ”
Is it reasonable for Americans to think that the proximity of Russia and North Korea will upset China? Actually, it depends on the direction of events. If Russia's strategic trust with North Korea involves military alliances and the transfer of sensitive technologies, and could trigger the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula, this is certainly opposed by China. We must realize that China's greatest interest on the Korean Peninsula is to maintain the status quo, or to refrain from chaos and war, because China's development requires a relatively stable surrounding environment.
The reason why the US generals say that China is "unhappy" is because they have taken a fancy to China's fundamental interests and believe that China will be anxious about losing control of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. In particular, if Putin may use the transfer of advanced weapons technology to North Korea to counter the West's supply of weapons to Ukraine, thereby triggering military tensions on the peninsula, it will also be detrimental to China.
While the war on the Korean Peninsula may greatly distract the United States from the battlefield in Ukraine, it may not be a bad thing for Russia, which makes America's conspiracy theories and divisive tactics seem plausible on the surface. However, we must also realize that the strategic mutual trust between China and Russia, the deep relationship between China and North Korea, and the economic ties between China and South Korea all determine that China will definitely reach a tacit understanding with Russia. In other words, Russia can use Russian-DPRK relations to contain US strategic resources, but it will never push the situation to the point of triggering war on the peninsula.
Judging from the content of the agreement signed by Russia and the DPRK, to a large extent, it only shows the desire of the two sides to cooperate, and there are not many binding clauses. Russia has expressed its support for North Korea, but at the same time has avoided emphasizing that it will send troops in the event of war on the peninsula, and has not even explicitly proposed "military assistance", and the technical cooperation between the two sides is unlikely to involve sensitive areas such as nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
The United States hopes that China will be unhappy with Putin's development of relations with North Korea, but in reality China may be happy to see it. In particular, North Korea's arms production capacity to help Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the opportunity for the North Korean people to improve their lives as a result, will only add to the anxiety of the United States. China pursues a peaceful and stable Korean Peninsula, and Putin understands China's demands, so judging from the content of the treaty, the possibility of crossing the line is almost non-existent.