Source: China Economic Net
The China Automobile Dealers Association expects that the terminal sales of new passenger cars in June will increase slightly from the previous month to about 1.75 million units. It is worth noting that although the sales volume of the auto market will increase slightly in June, the business situation of dealers is still not ideal. In order to hit the semi-annual task target, dealers' inventory increased in June, transaction prices continued to fall, and the phenomenon of "price for volume" was more, and the price reduction of new cars led to an increase in consumer wait-and-see sentiment.
In terms of used cars, the auto market entered the traditional off-season in June, and the used car market continued its downward trend in May. From June 1 to June 23, a total of 1.16 million used cars were traded, down 4.5% compared to the same period in May, but narrowed compared to the previous week, indicating that the market is gradually coming out of the trough.
Yesterday (July 1), the China Automobile Dealers Association said at the monthly situation analysis meeting that in June, many places entered the busy agricultural season, and seasonal factors such as hot weather and rainy weather in the south had an adverse impact on dealers' collection and transactions; However, with the help of the "trade-in" policy, the Dragon Boat Festival, the "618" promotion and the dealers' half-year impulse strategy, the terminal sales of new passenger cars in June will increase slightly compared with the previous month, about 1.75 million units.
It is worth noting that although the sales volume of the auto market will increase slightly in June, the business situation of dealers is still not ideal. According to the Circulation Association, in order to impact the semi-annual task target, dealer inventory increased in June, transaction prices continued to fall, and the phenomenon of "price for volume" was more, and the price reduction of new cars led to an increase in consumer wait-and-see sentiment.
According to the data, the inventory warning index of China's auto dealers in June 2024 was 62.3%, up 8.3% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month.
In terms of policy, the effect of the "trade-in" policy is gradually released, and the country has submitted more than 110,000 applications for scrap subsidies, but the circulation association said that in the short term, the policy has not yet been obvious to promote the car market, only less than 20% of consumers have consulted the relevant policies in the store, and the proportion of actual transactions is less than 10%, and most dealers believe that the policy is still mainly publicized.
As for the expectations for July, the Circulation Association said that the overall performance of the market in July will be the same as that in June, and dealers are more cautious about the expectations of the automobile market in the second half of the year, believing that the overall automobile market will remain at the level of last year.
In terms of second-hand cars, according to the Circulation Association, the automobile market entered the traditional off-season in June, and the second-hand car market continued its downward trend in May. From June 1 to June 23, a total of 1.16 million used cars were traded, down 4.5% compared to the same period in May, but narrowed compared to the previous week, indicating that the market is gradually coming out of the trough.
The decline in used car transactions is not unrelated to the decline in new car prices. According to dealer feedback, the decline in the price of new cars has attracted some potential customers of used cars to buy new cars instead, and the recent fluctuations in the price of used car transactions have led to the aggravation of consumers' wait-and-see sentiment.
Talking about the expectation for July, the Circulation Association believes that the situation in the used car market in July is basically the same as that in June or slightly improved. After the fierce price war in the second quarter, the transaction price of new cars is expected to stabilize in July, and the used car transaction will tend to be active, which is expected to reverse the trend of continuous decline.
The Circulation Association said that in the long run, the fundamentals of the mainland's second-hand car market, policy environment, market structure and other fundamentals have not changed fundamentally, and the long-term trend is still good.
In terms of sales volume, the Dealers Association released detailed data on the used car market for the first five months of this year. In May 2024, the transaction volume of the national second-hand car market was 1.5846 million, a decrease of 5.62% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 5.87%; The transaction amount was 102.331 billion yuan. Among them, a total of 85,700 new energy used vehicles were traded, a decrease of 3.8% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 51.7%.
From January to May 2024, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars in the country was 7.8639 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.69%; The cumulative transaction amount was 527.392 billion yuan. Among them, a total of 420,400 new energy used cars were traded, a year-on-year increase of 68.5%.
In terms of models, the cumulative transaction of basic passenger cars from January to May was 4.5881 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%; A total of 1,049,100 SUVs were traded, a year-on-year increase of 13.55%; A total of 496,900 MPVs were traded, a year-on-year increase of 13.13%; A total of 184,700 minivans were traded, a year-on-year increase of 30.99%. In terms of commercial vehicles, a total of 620,100 trucks were traded, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%; 444,800 buses were traded, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%.
In terms of service life, the proportion of second-hand cars with low age continues to increase. From January to May, the transaction volume of used cars with a service life of 3-6 years was the largest, accounting for 46.9%, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, while the proportion of vehicles within 3 years and more than 7 years of age declined.
At the same time, the average price of second-hand car transactions has also increased, and the average price of second-hand car transactions in May was 64,600 yuan, an increase of 2,300 yuan over the same period last year.
In May, the second-hand car transfer rate was 28.67%, down 0.3% month-on-month and 1.9% year-on-year. The total number of second-hand car transfers was 454,400, a decrease of 6.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. (China Economic Net reporter Chen Mengyu Image source: China Automobile Dealers Association)