Contest & Time:
Euro 2024, 1/8 Finals (Match 7)
2024.07.03 00:00, Romania vs Netherlands
Score prediction: Romania 0:1,0:2,1:1 Netherlands (lose,draw,draw)
Can the group-third seed, the Orange, make it to the next round of the knockout round?
ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILITY OF PROMOTION BETWEEN ROMANIA AND THE NETHERLANDS PUBLISHED BY FOOTBALL MEDIA "SCORE 90" AND "LIVE SCORE", THE ADVANTAGE OF THE ORANGE IS STILL VERY OBVIOUS. However, judging from the first six quarter-finals of this Cup, it seems that the group ranking has a natural advantage. After all, as of now, the three third-place teams in the group have been eliminated!
Therefore, as the recognized strongest team in the third place of the four groups, and as the recognized weakest group leader among the six groups, whether the match between Romania and the Netherlands can be reversed is undoubtedly the biggest attraction.
The three matches that have ended in the first and third matches have gathered all the elements of the so-called unequal strengths and weaknesses:
Slovakia was only about one and a half minutes away from a miracle and eventually fell to extra time due to a drawless draw by England;
Georgia seemed to be in full swing, but the huge gap made them still defeat against Spain and went home;
Slovenia had done everything they could, with a single save and a penalty three in a row, but at least they managed to get it all the time.
Therefore, the third place in the group may be one step away from qualifying. Is it okay to leave this difficult task to the Netherlands?
Romanian
He is good at long-range shots and local sieges, but the corresponding shortcomings lie in the defense of the middle of the midfield. So, who is more beneficial to such obvious advantages and disadvantages?
The technical characteristics of Romania's long-range shots were impressive from the start of the European qualifiers to the group stage, and almost became their winning weapon. After all, 43 per cent of goals scored in the European qualifiers came from outside the box, making them the team with the highest percentage of goals scored outside the box.
Therefore, the combination of rapid advance and long-range shooting must be the best tactic to bring out the Romanian attacking threat. Of course, if Romania can press high in the period and give the Netherlands enough pressure at the back, perhaps their own characteristics can be better reflected in combination with this grafting technique.
Of course, as a team with limited strength, in fact, their shortcomings are also more obvious - in the second game of the group stage 0:2 defeat to Belgium, the penetration of the middle and successive penetrations were an important reason for their final loss.
Although Romania's defense at this European Championship is actually doing a good job, if the midfield is completely penetrated and the pressure is directly connected to the back, in fact, their tolerance will gradually collapse.
Therefore, Romania's promotion or not depends on their protection and conversion in the middle.
Netherlands
The team's struggle is actually related to the contradiction of coach Koeman - they want to attack and defend, although they are not mutually exclusive, but the tactical arrangement is not clear enough
Austria, who were expected to score just 0.98, ended up scoring three goals and the Dutch defence on the right side must have been terrible in that game, so whether Hetleylda will still be used and whether De Ligt has a chance to return to the starting line-up may be a decision that the Dutch will need to make in the knockout stages.
And why did the Netherlands, which was known as the strongest defensive group before the game, concede as many as 4 goals in 3 games? This may have something to do with the team's inability to press effectively high post. Because whether it is the overall forward pressure of the three attackers or the promotion of the seconded attacking midfielder, they are actually directly broken by the opponent.
As a result, the Dutch backline, which was always unsuccessful in surrounding or pressing, and in turn attacked by their opponents, caused them to be passive and ultimately behind in the game.
So, the big structural problems for the Dutch team are the changes Koeman has to make when dealing with the knockout rounds. Perhaps, they found a way to change the score through their individual ability in the front court and were lucky enough to advance to the quarter-finals.
However, judging from the current situation of the European Championships, it seems that the "traditional weak teams" will not give the traditional strong teams more space to attack, and the Dutch team is still a team that lacks the ability to organize and penetrate in the middle. At least relying on the in-cutting of the wide players may not be enough to reflect the strength and victory of the Dutch team in the game.
In the last 9 meetings between the two sides, the Netherlands has an absolute advantage with 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, and has taken an average lead of 2.43 goals per game in the winning games.
However, such statistics do not seem to apply to this game, after all, the Netherlands do not have such a perfect system to deal with this game easily.
Therefore, the Netherlands in this game needs to grab a start, and it also needs a sudden acceleration in the game. As for whether to be prepared for extra time or penalties? For now, it's better to be prepared!