Friends: July finally ushered in a good start, a good start is half the success, and once again strengthened investors' expectations for "five poor, six absolute seven turnovers". In the morning, only the Shanghai Composite Index was still struggling to support, and in the afternoon, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Shuangchuang plate, which fell sharply in early trading, pulled up directly on dry land. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices both closed in the red, but unfortunately both fell slightly. Although individual stocks continued the pattern of rising more and falling less last Friday, only about 210 stocks rose by more than 5%, and at the same time, the amount of energy also shrank greatly, which greatly reduced the success of the market.
Today's rebound is also the result of the joint efforts of many parties. There are several main reasons:
First of all, some good news that was blown up over the weekend,
The second is that in the afternoon, the national team funds began to exert force.
Finally, there was good news from the central bank at midday.
Multiple benefits to achieve such a rebound result, to be honest, unsatisfactory, the rebound always has to rely on external forces to solve, the market lacks the momentum to do long, but for the current market, there is no choice, only to rely on external forces to restore confidence, play a role in activating the market, if there is no continuous intervention of external forces, the rebound is difficult to promote.
Since it is dependent on external forces, what are the important changes in the specific news surface?
1. What kind of signal does the central bank send by deciding to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in the open market in the near future?
What does it mean for the central bank to carry out the borrowing operation of treasury bonds, to be honest, it feels like a good thing, I can only understand it, not words, I checked the information, and translated it into the vernacular, that is, the central bank buys government bonds or bonds of financial institutions, which is the operation of borrowing bonds.
What is the central bank's purpose in doing this?
First, it affects the balance between supply and demand of bonds in the secondary market, and these treasury bonds can be sold in the secondary market, thereby lowering the market price of relevant treasury bonds and pushing up the yield of relevant treasury bonds.
Second, to avoid a large deviation of medium and long-term treasury bond yields from the center of the corresponding policy interest rate, it will have a stronger risk warning effect than the previous one.
The news was sent at noon, and the bond market rose in early trading, but after the news was announced, the 30-year Treasury bond futures dived rapidly, and finally the Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 1.06%, the 10-year main contract down 0.37%, the 5-year main contract down 0.24%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.08%.
Why did Treasury bond futures fall sharply after the news was released, and it is necessary to understand what impact this move will have on the bond market and the stock market?
First of all, we can clearly see that this news is negative for the bond market in the short term, the central bank borrows treasury bonds from investors who hold treasury bonds through reverse repurchase of treasury bonds, and agrees to return the treasury bonds to the original holders at an agreed price at a certain date in the future, and at the same time pay a certain amount of interest as the cost of using treasury bonds. Because liquidity is siphoned off. Therefore, the bond market has fallen sharply, especially the price of long-term bonds, but it has helped to stabilize the interest rate of long-term bonds;
Secondly, we know that the stock market and the bond market are mostly a seesaw effect, which is bad for the bond market, which is naturally good for the stock market.
As we all know, with the issuance of ultra-long treasury bonds in recent times, some places queue up all night to buy treasury bonds, which is enough to see the popularity of the bond market, which shows that investors are seeking for risk-free returns. The stock market is inherently illiquid. The central bank buys back bonds from the primary market through monetary tools, which plays the role of killing two birds with one stone, preventing bond prices from speculation and curbing overheating. Some of the money from the bond market can be driven to the stock market.
Of course, from my understanding, this effect comes more from the psychological level, I am afraid it is difficult to stimulate the flow of funds in the bond market to the stock market, unless the stock market is hot, it will have a continuous crowding out effect on the bond market, otherwise, this impact is very small. If it really works, at least today's volume won't shrink significantly.
In fact, judging from the actions of the central bank, stability is greater than everything, and once there is a big fluctuation in any market, the central bank will intervene through monetary tools. In fact, this point is also very clear from the stock market, once the stock market plummets, the central bank and other departments will also intervene, and once the market is overheated, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments will also intervene. Of course, the market is in a long-term downturn, and it is nonsense to talk about overheating, but we must be clear that if there is a surge in the short term, we must know how to close it when it is good.
2. 3,000 points and soldiers are coming to the city, will it break through in one fell swoop tomorrow?
Recently, the market has been very sluggish, and in the short term, I have been emphasizing that only a sharp fall can enter the market. But for the market below 3000 points, I only talk about opportunities, not about risks, although there is a lot of risk in the short term, but if you always buy low, naturally there will not be much risk. But if you look at it in combination with the laws of history, there have been nearly 60 3,000-point defense battles, and that one didn't finally stand at 3,000 points.
Of course, standing above 3000 points does not mean that there will be a big rise in the future, and it does not mean that you will make money, the real money is the initiative to reduce positions above 3000 points, and investors who dare to attack heavily below 3000 points. You are always operating with a full position, and no matter how good the opportunity is, it just allows you to unbundle repeatedly.
Back to today's market, today continues last Friday's trend of rising and falling, mainly because the weight is pulling the index, and there is no capital relay in the end, so it seems that it is going to regain 3000 points, but it failed to do so, hitting 2996.41 points and closing at 2994.73 points.
With today's energy level, if it really breaks through 3,000 points, it will definitely usher in a lot of selling pressure, which can only be in vain.
Due to the lack of energy, restricting the rebound space of the market, if it is still a large-cap stock, it will divert funds from small and medium-sized themes, even if it stands on 3000 points, it will fall back again, the top priority must be the Shenzhen Component Index and the double innovation and innovation, not only to bring about the improvement of the money-making effect, but also to increase the rebound of individual stocks.
How will the market go tomorrow?
First, there is a high probability that it will break through 3,000 points in one fell swoop in early trading, but it may soon fall, because the market must break through the key level with weight, and the rise in weight will inevitably divert funds from small and medium-sized themes, so that it will not be able to attract retail investors to enter the market.
Second, banks, coal, electricity, oil, etc. are high, and real estate is also rising sharply today, once it falls, the market will be more risky. Tomorrow will focus on whether securities and winemaking can strengthen.
Third, the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market have not strengthened, and it is impossible for the Shanghai Index to strengthen independently.
From my understanding, judging from the performance of the disk alone, the short-term still does not dare to have extravagant hopes, and it is easy to rush up and fall. But the market can not always be so weak, there will always be a turnaround, rescue funds in active action, although retail investors still do not believe, but two consecutive days of individual stocks up and down less, means that the funds slowly a few small and medium-sized diffusion. Once there is a trend of individual stocks rising more and falling less, retail investors will naturally enter the market.
Prudent investors can only wait for a large amount of money before entering the market, and aggressive investors can enter the market in a hurry. Retail investors who are covered by the quilt wait patiently.