Six public investment researchers interpret the blockbuster document: consumption contains abundant nugget opportunities, and new scenarios bring new growth points

China Fund News reporter Fang Li Cao Wenjing

On June 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and other five departments issued the "Measures on Creating New Consumption Scenarios and Cultivating New Consumption Growth Points" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), requiring that around traditional consumption and service consumption such as food, clothing, housing and transportation, cultivate six new consumption scenarios such as catering, cultural tourism and sports, shopping, bulk commodities, health and elderly care, and communities, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points.

What is the guiding significance of the Measures? What are the implications for capital markets? What investment opportunities are worth watching? In this regard, a reporter from China Fund News interviewed six investment researchers from fund companies, including Wang Shiyao, fund manager of Bosera Fund Equity Investment Department IV, Huang Yun, fund manager of Yongying Consumption Xinxuan, Yang Kun, fund manager of Nuoan Fund, Guan Shan, manager of Rongtong blue-chip growth fund, Zhu Biying, fund manager assistant of Guotai Fund Quantitative Investment Department, and Wang Yiqin, fund manager assistant of Pengyang Fund Equity Investment Department.

Interviewees believe that the "Measures" aim to expand domestic demand, promote consumption upgrading, meet people's demand for a high-quality life, and also bring many opportunities to the capital market. The government has designated 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion" to promote the continuous expansion of consumption through a two-wheel drive of policies and activities. This provides a good environment for the development of the consumer market, and is optimistic about tourism, livestock and poultry meat products, consumption and other fields.

Promote consumption upgrading

Indicate the direction of policy support

China Fund News: What is the guiding significance of the Measures? What are the implications for capital markets?

Huang Yun: The "Measures" have important guiding significance, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: promoting consumption upgrading, promoting the improvement of consumption quality through innovative consumption scenarios, so as to meet people's pursuit of a higher quality of life; Promote economic transformation, encourage scientific and technological innovation and the development of new business forms, promote the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, and enhance the endogenous growth momentum of the economy; stimulate market vitality, cultivate new consumption growth points, and promote the prosperity and development of the consumer market; Optimize and improve the consumption environment, enhance the convenience of consumption, and improve consumer satisfaction and experience; Promote balanced regional development, promote balanced consumption between urban and rural areas, narrow the gap between regional development, and achieve common prosperity; Enhance international competitiveness, cultivate internationally competitive consumer brands and products, and enhance the country's soft power and international influence.

The impact of the Measures on the capital market mainly lies in providing new investment opportunities for capital, especially in the fields of new consumption scenarios, new business formats and new models. The "Measures" encourage technological innovation and product innovation, and the investment direction of industrial upgrading is worth paying attention to.

Yang Kun: The policy is more about encouraging digital empowerment, improving the quality of supply and revitalizing idle assets according to local characteristics. From the perspective of competition, capital may be more likely to consider how to differentiate itself. For example, from the perspective of product features, convenience and timeliness of services, and from the perspective of creating new demand, rather than homogeneously increasing production capacity.

Guan Shan: The new consumption scenario is the system integration of new formats, new models and new products. The "Measures" aim to expand domestic demand, promote consumption upgrading, and meet people's needs for a high-quality life. The Measures cover a number of fields, such as catering, cultural tourism, shopping, automobiles, home improvement, electronic products, etc., providing investors with new investment directions. Driven by policies, consolidation within the industry is likely to accelerate, and dominant companies may expand their market share through mergers and acquisitions.

A new scene of food and beverage consumption

Chaining, health, convenience, and digital intelligence have become trends

China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of catering consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that it is necessary to develop catering consumption segments and support the intelligent upgrading of catering consumption.

Huang Yun: First of all, the development of chain catering brands, continue to encourage the development of large-scale chain restaurants, and encourage large-scale chain catering enterprises to expand to the county market.

The second is the intelligent upgrading of catering, promoting the digital transformation of catering business entities, and improving market analysis and customer acquisition capabilities, involving intelligent ordering systems, data analysis tools, customer relationship management systems, etc.

The third is food safety and healthy catering, and encourage the acceleration of the formulation and improvement of relevant standards for the prefabricated food and dairy industries; Encourage the transparency of the catering process, and promote the independent disclosure system of the ingredients and production methods of the catering process. This provides an opportunity for the development of the prepared food industry as well as emerging catering brands.

Yang Kun: Among the measures to develop the subdivision of catering consumption, the first is the in-depth exploration of local specialties. China has a vast territory and many ethnic groups, each of which has its own unique food culture and characteristics, and many ingredients are only produced locally, with unique taste and nutritional value. In some places, the promotion of food needs to be strengthened, so as to drive local tourism and specialty sales.

Guan Shan: On the brand side, we pay attention to the growth of local traditional cuisine in the country, green and organic catering and other characteristic tracks, as well as the current investment opportunities in the direction of large-scale chain restaurants sinking to the county level.

On the supply chain side, we will focus on suppliers and outsourcers that support the digital and intelligent transformation of catering. Catering enterprises are expected to achieve efficient food supply and improve marketing and operational efficiency through the construction of supply-side CNC platforms and intelligent analysis of user order data.

In terms of multi-format integration, the catering industry is encouraged to combine with other industries such as cultural tourism, convention and exhibition, and research and learning to develop new consumption scenarios and experiences.

Wang Shiyao: In terms of catering consumption, chaining, health, convenience and digital intelligence are the trends of industrial development, and with policy support, we will continue to deepen the implementation of industrial investment in these directions and create leading supply conditions for consumption trends.

A new scene of cultural tourism and sports consumption

Pay attention to overseas and peripheral travel opportunities

China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of cultural tourism and sports consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that deepening the integration and innovation of tourism formats, promoting the quality and efficiency of urban and rural cultural tourism, improving the convenience level of inbound tourism, and expanding the consumption space of cultural and sports are worth paying attention to?

Huang Yun: Areas worth paying attention to include the integration and innovation of tourism formats, theme tourism boutique routes, digitally empowered cultural tourism scenes, urban and rural cultural tourism quality and efficiency improvement, inbound tourism facilitation, cultural and sports consumption space expansion, sports park and fitness venue construction, rural event activities, sports event brand activities, and cultural big data platform construction. In terms of investment, you can actively focus on companies that can provide high-quality services and products.

Wang Shiyao: Focus on the scenic spot through the upgrading of software and hardware facilities to further enhance the popularity and tourist reception capacity, such as typical ice and snow tourism destinations, by improving the transportation, accommodation and other supporting capabilities, as well as the enrichment and development of off-season tourism and other playability, to better tap the brand reputation of famous mountains and rivers and the sense of experience of tourists, on the basis of sustainable development to create a greater degree of economic benefits.

In addition, the relevant departments have also done a lot of work in terms of inbound tourism, including visa-free access for tourists from many countries and the scope is still increasing, as well as preparations for ground access, etc., and the number of inbound tourists has increased significantly recently.

Yang Kun: To deepen the integration and innovation of the tourism industry, we can start from the promotion of high-quality theme tourism routes with distinctive characteristics. The tourism content includes humanities, geography and other aspects, which can be shaped according to local culture, location advantages and other factors, and the market prospect is broad. For example, in view of the abundant horse resources in the Mongolian grassland, a series of tourism products can be designed around the "horse culture" as the core, combining local cultural exploration and natural adventure experience, and attracting tourists with characteristic content.

To promote the quality and efficiency of urban and rural cultural tourism, it is necessary to pay special attention to the potential demand for leisure agriculture around large cities, increase investment in agricultural leisure tourism infrastructure, improve service facilities, and improve service quality.

In addition, to improve the convenience of inbound tourism, the convenience of foreigners should be improved.

New scenarios for shopping and consumption

Pay attention to new technologies to expand consumption, "national tide" consumption, etc

China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of shopping consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that the diversified and integrated development of shopping consumption will be promoted; Leverage new technologies to expand the shopping experience; Cultivating the consumption of domestic "trendy products". Among the many new shopping and consumption scenarios, which areas have high growth potential?

Huang Yun: In terms of cultivating new shopping and consumption scenarios, the Measures also put forward a variety of policy measures, combined with the huge domestic consumer market and consumer groups, we believe that there are the following areas with high growth potential: new retail formats, such as affordable snack stores, discount stores and other new formats; Domestic brands continue to shine, by cultivating and promoting a number of leading consumer brands, encouraging the development of domestic brands, providing investors with opportunities to support the growth of local brands; Tapping into the consumption potential of time-honored Chinese brands and intangible cultural heritage provides investors with the opportunity to protect and inherit traditional culture while exploring the market. In addition, the development of rural e-commerce provides development opportunities for rural e-commerce and logistics services, and also provides new opportunities for the development of brands in the sinking consumer market.

Wang Shiyao: There is still a lot of room for improvement in the expansion of consumer experience with new technologies, such as the application of virtual reality technology in the production and sales of the consumer field, and there is still great growth potential; In terms of domestic "trendy products", there are already a number of enterprises with certain advantages in brands, products and sales capabilities, but there is still a relatively large room for improvement in market share.

Yang Kun: In promoting the diversified and integrated development of shopping consumption, the comprehensive utilization of old factories, parks, and traditional department stores is mentioned. With the penetration rate of online shopping and the improvement of the efficiency of logistics and distribution, online shopping has become a very common consumer behavior, which poses a serious challenge to traditional department store complexes that need to bear high land rent costs. Given the intrinsic value of large-scale properties in the city, it is important to explore their innovative uses, and Beijing's 798 Art District is one of the examples of successful transformations, demonstrating the great potential and socio-economic benefits of renovation.

Cultivating the consumption of domestic "trendy products" is a major consumption strategy. After years of technological iteration, China's manufacturing industry has reached the top level in the world, laying a solid foundation for local brand building. The development of the brand is a gradual process, and cultivating domestic products is conducive to the self-circulation of domestic consumption, and it is also a preliminary preparation for the future of domestic products to the world.

Guan Shan: For young consumers, you can combine IP and amusement facilities to shape theme stores, focus on the closed loop of experience consumption, and provide emotional value, which may be IP trendy toy stores, game halls, dance studios, VR experience halls, etc.

A new scenario for commodity consumption

Focus on robots, smart home devices, and smart driving

China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios for commodity consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that expanding new scenarios for automobile consumption, enriching home improvement and home consumption scenarios, and creating new scenarios for electronic product consumption have investment value.

Yang Kun: Expanding new scenarios for automobile consumption is an important starting point for cultivating commodity consumption. The mainland consumes about 26 million passenger cars annually, accounting for about 40% of global consumption, and has a huge market and industrial chain. At present, the annual consumption of new energy vehicles in mainland China is expected to be 10 million, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. The promotion of new energy vehicles not only promotes the development of the automobile consumer market, but also has a positive effect on reducing oil import dependence and reducing exhaust emissions. "Vehicle-road-cloud integration" is the general direction of urban transportation development in the future, which can effectively solve the problem of urban congestion and improve traffic efficiency.

The highlight of creating a new consumption scenario for electronic products is robots. Robots based on large AI models are more intelligent than before, improving their ability to understand and execute human instructions, and showing the advantages of all-weather, programmable, and repeatable. The development of artificial intelligence-enabled robots is still on the way, and in the future, if robots can enter thousands of households, it will give birth to huge industries and give birth to many large companies and investment opportunities.

Wang Yiqin: First of all, look at the new scenario of automobile consumption, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the continuous application of intelligent technology, related industrial chains such as batteries, intelligent driving systems and other consumer industries are worth paying attention to. At the same time, the number of passenger cars in China continues to increase, and automotive aftermarket services such as maintenance and repair service chains, second-hand car trading platforms, auto finance, and charging piles also deserve active attention.

Looking at home decoration and home consumption, the market prospect of smart home products is broad, such as the increasing demand for smart home appliances, smart lighting, smart security and other products, and the research and development and production of personalized customized home furnishings and environmentally friendly materials are also hot spots for investment.

Finally, looking at the new consumption scenarios of electronic products, wearable devices such as smart watches and health monitoring bracelets have huge market potential. In addition, the service industry related to the recycling and reuse of high-end electronic products is also worth paying attention to.

Guan Shan: New Scenarios of Automobile Consumption: Young people's enthusiasm for travel is increasing, and it is convenient for consumers to travel, and the new energy vehicle industry that focuses on cost-effectiveness or the car rental industry that is convenient and cost-effective is worth paying attention to.

Enriching home improvement and home furnishing scenes: With the increase in the proportion of young people renting houses, the attention to the rental experience will also increase significantly, and companies that provide cost-effective, detachable, environmentally friendly and healthy light home furnishing products are worth paying attention to.

With the advent of a new generation of electronic devices such as VR, the consumer experience has been upgraded to a new dimension, and consumers will be motivated to gradually upgrade their products and improve their experience, and pay attention to investment opportunities in new technologies, new devices and content application product companies.

A new scenario of elderly care and childcare consumption

Pay attention to physical examinations, medical equipment, elderly care, etc

China Fund News: In terms of cultivating new scenarios of healthy elderly care and childcare consumption, the "Measures" mentioned that promoting the development of healthy consumption, expanding new scenarios of silver consumption, and actively developing childcare consumption, among them, what investment opportunities are worth paying attention to?

Huang Yun: In the field of health consumption, we focus on institutions that provide special medical services, as well as companies that develop and produce medical equipment and health products. In the silver consumption scenario, there are structural opportunities in the fields of medical services, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices. In medical services, home-based elderly care services are a good entry point. In terms of the pharmaceutical industry, we will make efforts to innovate and develop R&D, grasp the general direction of drug development in the future, and grasp the changing trend of local disease spectrum. In terms of devices, referring to Japan's experience, the increase in the prevalence of tumors and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases will have a pulling effect on diagnostic and therapeutic devices, while diabetes and orthopedic-related diseases will also promote the growth of related chronic disease management and rehabilitation devices.

In terms of childcare, we should pay attention to the new model of community and family mutual childcare services, including community childcare services that are centrally managed and operated; Pay attention to infant related products, such as infant skin care products, medicines, etc.

Zhu Biying: The big health industry is entering the fast lane of rapid development. With the improvement of people's health awareness, the demand for healthy consumption market will continue to grow. Investors can focus on companies in related fields such as health food, fitness equipment, health monitoring products, etc. At the same time, with the deepening of the aging of the population, the silver consumer market is gradually rising, and you can pay attention to products and services related to the life of the elderly, such as enterprises in the fields of elderly tourism, elderly fitness, and elderly health food, as well as medical ETFs involving listed companies such as physical examinations, medical devices, and eye hospitals.

Wang Yiqin: In the field of health consumption, judging from the consumption needs of the old and young age groups, health and health food and nursing service institutions have development potential.

First of all, with the increase in health awareness, consumer demand for foods rich in vitamins, minerals and antioxidants, such as dairy products and whole grain products, is rising, and companies investing in R&D and production of such products, especially those focusing on natural ingredients and functional foods, are worth paying attention to.

Looking at service-oriented consumption, under the silver economy, institutions that provide high-quality nursing services, such as nursing homes, nursing homes, home care services, and other fields, have broad prospects; In the field of childcare consumption, the chaining and branding of childcare service institutions is an industry trend.

Wang Shiyao: We can focus on exploring growth points around the silver consumption scene, such as the health care industry, household medical equipment, etc.

Pay attention to economic cycles and policy changes

and the international trade environment

China Fund News: How do you view the current opportunities in the field of large consumption? In addition to the above-mentioned new consumption areas, what other sub-sectors are you optimistic about? Where are the risk points?

Huang Yun: The opportunities in the field of large consumption are mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, the consumption structure has changed, on the one hand, consumers pay more attention to products that can provide emotional value in addition to the product itself, and the proportion of self-pleasing weight has increased; On the other hand, consumers pay attention to cost-effective products, and as channels and supply chains continue to improve, companies that can provide cost-effective products will stand out. The second is the opportunity for household appliances, light industry and other industries in the consumer export chain. Finally, there is the trend of automotive intelligence, electrification, localization and going overseas in the technology industry, as well as the new applications and products brought by AI technology.

The main risks include the following aspects: First, the competition in the consumer sector is becoming increasingly fierce, and companies need to continuously innovate and improve their competitiveness to maintain market share. Second, factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, economic cycles, policy changes, and the international trade environment may affect consumers' purchasing power and consumer confidence. Finally, uncertainties in global supply chains, such as raw material price fluctuations, logistics disruptions, etc., can affect business operations.

Yang Kun: The consumer sector has always had abundant opportunities. As a large and diversified market, the mainland consumer market has many sub-sectors, and there is often a situation where "the east is not bright and the west is bright". At present, there is no shortage of bright spots in the domestic consumer market, such as ice and snow tourism, barbecue, etc., and some fast-moving consumer goods with high cost performance, reduced channel levels, and consumer benefits can still achieve market growth beyond expectations. In essence, consumer demand is persistent, and the key is to provide more cost-effective goods and services to stimulate consumers' motivation to continue to buy.

Zhu Biying: The government has designated 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion" to promote the continuous expansion of consumption through the two-wheel drive of policies and activities. This provides a good environment for the development of the consumer market, especially in the fields of tourism, livestock and poultry meat products, etc., which has great development potential and market opportunities.

The globalization of consumption is also a direction worth paying attention to. The recovery of summer travel demand has led to the recovery of the profitability of airlines, airports and high-speed rail. At the same time, driven by the high prosperity of domestic brands going overseas, the "Belt and Road" initiative, and cross-border e-commerce, the prosperity of going overseas can still be maintained, and the current cross-border logistics industry is booming.

Guan Shan: At present, the large consumption environment is weak, and consumer companies that conform to consumers' pursuit of the ultimate cost-effective consumption psychology, provide high-quality and low-cost products, and have the advantage of improving the supply chain are more valuable for investment.

Wang Shiyao: At present, many industries in China have established a globally competitive industrial chain foundation, and there are also a number of companies in the consumer sector that have the ability to "go global", and can focus on enterprises that can "take a piece of the pie" in overseas markets, including consumer goods companies in the manufacturing industry.