Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos
Straight News: What do you think about the recent frequent calls by the Philippine side for China and the Philippines to start diplomatic talks on the sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Indeed, from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, who was the initiator of the China-Philippines sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea in recent years, to Philippine Foreign Secretary Manalo and Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romualdez, who have recently made frequent harsh remarks on the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea, to the 32 Philippine associations headed by the Philippine-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, have all held high the banner of pacifism and called on China and the Philippines to resolve the sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea through diplomatic negotiations. This situation even gives people the illusion that the rounds of conflicts that broke out between China and the Philippines over the sovereignty issue in the South China Sea some time ago did not occur at all, let alone were unilaterally provoked by the Philippines.
It is no wonder that the outside world, especially the Chinese side, has a question, that is, which one is the Philippine side singing, and is it playing real or fake?
In this regard, my opinion is that these tricks played by the Philippines are neither complicated nor clever, and we can see through them at a glance:
First of all, I believe that in recent years, with the support and connivance of the United States, especially the military commitment of the United States, the Philippines has launched a series of attacks on China's sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Because they sincerely believe that as long as there is a conflict between China and the Philippines over sovereignty in the South China Sea, the United States will definitely protect the Philippines in accordance with the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty." At the same time, they also sincerely believe that the Chinese side will certainly make concessions under the "coercion" of the United States. This is determined by the political intelligence and political judgment of the Philippine decision-makers.
Second, the Philippines' current proposal for peace talks is not entirely fake, but is the inevitable result of the poor donkey's skills and being cornered. Because in recent times, after all the forces, including the so-called civilian, administrative, that is, the coast guard, and the military, have been mobilized, and all the tricks have been exhausted, they have not taken any advantage in these conflicts. And what made them especially desperate was that the US troops, who kept promising to protect them, hid on the side to blow the sea breeze, bask in the sun, and watch the excitement. In other words, it was when all the martial arts tricks were exhausted that they had to turn to Wen's tricks.
Moreover, whether it is military or civil, whether it is hard or soft, there is one thing that the Philippine side will not change, that is, it will continue to encroach on China's sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and in particular, continue to supply and repair the broken warship beached on Ren'ai Jiao. In other words, the Philippines' thieving of China's sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea will not die. We must have a clear understanding of this.
Straight News: Some people also believe that the Philippines has taken the initiative to propose peace talks just to accumulate strength and buy time for the next step in challenging China's sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea. What do you think about this?
Liu Heping, Special Commentator: As I said earlier, the Philippine side's tricks are neither complicated nor sophisticated, so there is no need for the Chinese side to guess or worry. Because in the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, there are several major situations that are unfavorable to the Philippine side, which will not change.
First, there is a saying in the West: "If you can't get something on the battlefield, don't think about it at the negotiating table." Although China and the Philippines have not yet reached the point of fighting each other on the battlefield, China and the Philippines have fought each other in various ways for several rounds over the past few years, and the result has been that the Philippines has not taken any advantage, but has no way to take advantage of China's maritime law enforcement forces. After all the tricks of the Philippines have been exhausted and all the hole cards have been exhausted, they will have no bargaining chips in their hands when they come to the negotiating table at this time.
Second, if the Philippines continues to rely on the support of the United States to continue to stir up trouble at this critical juncture, then the current period of strategic opportunity to resolve the dispute between China and the Philippines over sovereignty in the South China Sea is not in the hands of the Philippines, but in the hands of China. Because the Biden administration, which is currently in a state of anxiety, has to deal not only with the burning Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East, but also with the presidential election in the United States. At this time, if the Philippines is further unreasonably provoked and hit hard by China, I think the Biden administration will just sit idly by.
Third, China is not afraid of procrastination in the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, because time is on China's side. The reason why time is on China's side is that the power gap between China and the Philippines is too big, and it will get wider and wider in the future.
Fourth, China has a lot of tools in its toolbox to resolve the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea, and none of them have yet to be used. For example, in the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, China can turn its passivity into initiative, and since you are unwilling to withdraw the broken warship on Ren'ai Jiao, and at the same time take a new "beaching" behavior on China's Xianbin Jiao, then we can also "treat others in the same way", that is, "draw a scoop on the gourd", and also send a few ships to "beach" on those Chinese islands and reefs occupied by the Philippines, and formulate China's next action plan according to the Philippine countermeasures. If the Philippines wants to come and forcibly tow away the beached ships of the Chinese side, then we can also concoct the same method and tow away the Philippine "beached" warships on Ren'ai Jiao.
Straight News: In the face of the call for peace talks from the Philippines, how do you think China should respond?
Liu Heping, Special Commentator: I noticed that after the Philippine side issued an appeal for intensive peace talks, only the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines made a simple and principled response, and only responded to the appeal of 33 Philippine civil society organizations, and did not ignore the appeal of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos and the Philippine Foreign Minister. Other than that, at least so far, there has been no official response from China's foreign ministry.
In my opinion, there are three reasons behind this: first, the recent intensive provocations and attacks launched by the Philippine side on China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea with the support and connivance of the United States have undermined the good atmosphere for peace talks between China and the Philippines; Second, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos' refusal to recognize and abide by the gentlemen's agreement reached between China and the Philippines during the Duterte administration has seriously undermined the foundation of political mutual trust between China and the Philippines. Third, in the current dispute between China and the Philippines over sovereignty in the South China Sea, China is on China's side, both in terms of time and situation, as well as in terms of the relevant moral foundation. In this case, whether the Philippines is coming from the text or from the military, soft or hard, China does not have to be afraid, and can "come to cover the water and the earth" and calmly deal with your various performances.
Therefore, I believe that if the Philippine side is really sincere in negotiating, it should first take the initiative to stop colluding with foreign forces to intervene in the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea. Second, we will completely stop provocative acts launched against China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea, especially the replenishment and reinforcement of beached warships on Ren'ai Jiao, and withdraw new beached warships from Xianbin Jiao; Third, recognize and abide by the gentlemen's agreement reached between China and the Philippines a few years ago on the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea. These three points should be taken as prerequisites for the resumption of diplomatic talks between China and the Philippines.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".