The United States and the Philippines have released rumors that the United States, the Philippines, Japan, and Australia will form a coalition to hold exercises in the "disputed waters" between China and the Philippines, thus demonstrating the "solidarity and support" of the United States and its allies for the Philippines. The front line of the struggle for rights protection in the South China Sea can be said to be a resurgence of waves.
The victory of the Chinese Coast Guard at Ren'ai Jiao has smashed the Philippines' delusion of trying to "single-hand" China in the South China Sea, and made the Philippines realize that without the support or even intervention of the United States, it cannot take advantage of China on its own. In recent days, the Philippines has held a number of public and secret consultations with the United States, and now the United States is finally going to end up in the South China Sea.
(Satellite photos show that the Shandong ship has appeared in the sea area about 360 kilometers west of Luzon)
According to the Washington Post, the United States and the Philippines sought to de-escalate the situation after a maritime conflict with China. This is a typical American propaganda ploy. What does it mean to "seek de-escalation"? The practice of long-term struggle tells us that we need to see what the US Government does instead of listening to what it says about its true attitude, because the US Government has always said one thing and done another.
According to the US media, the United States will hold joint maritime exercises with the Philippines in the coming weeks to show the "support" of the United States for this important ally. An official from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the exercise was planned in advance and that "the United States has no intention of escalating tensions with China." He said the exercise would take place in the South China Sea and would also involve Australia, Japan or other U.S. allies.
(Satellite photo of the Shandong and its escort vessels)
In addition, in addition to holding joint exercises with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other countries, the Philippine side will continue to resupply the wrecked ships beached at Ren'ai Jiao. Last week, the US media said that the supply could be carried out as early as this week, but "this week" has passed, and there is still no movement from the Philippine side. The Philippine Department of Defense has claimed that they will not announce the timetable for the replenishment and will not inform the Chinese side of the content of the replenishment, which means that they will continue to follow the route of previous violations. The Chinese coast guard is fully prepared for this, and "6.17" can make them suffer a big loss, and the Philippine side will only be met with stronger counterattacks if they dare to escalate their provocations.
(Satellite photo of the Shandong and its escort vessels)
Judging from the specific situation of the current maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, the four-nation coalition led by the United States may target hot waters such as Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has already begun to respond: Foreign media have discovered through satellite photos that the PLA Navy's Shandong aircraft carrier battle group, whose home port is at the Yulin base in Sanya, has gone to sea and has appeared about 360 kilometers west of Luzon Island a few days ago, and it is possible that it will continue to advance through the Bass Strait into the western Pacific Ocean. At present, in the sea area where the Shandong ship is patrolling, carrier-based fighters have been able to bring the entire Philippine island of Luzon into the strike radius, especially the medium-range missile system deployed by the US military at Laoag International Airport.
(Recent activities of Chinese and US military aircraft near the Bass Strait)
The future actions of the Shandong depend on the future actions of the US military. At present, the US military is "overwhelmed": The USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group has already begun the "Freedom Blade" joint exercise with Japan and South Korea in the Sea of Japan, and the PLA has already dispatched an electronic reconnaissance ship and several destroyers to "watch"; After this exercise, the Roosevelt will go to the Middle East to replace the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, which has been "humiliated" by the Houthis for several months, to deal with the situation in the Middle East.
The USS Ronald Reagan, which has been deployed for nine years in the Japanese port of Yokosuka, is currently located on Guam and will soon return to its U.S. home port for mid-term overhauls; The sooner to replace the USS Reagan is the USS Washington, which is still sailing off the west coast of Central America.
Meanwhile, the U.S. rally 2024 military exercise around Hawaii has opened in the waters around Hawaii and will continue until early August. Therefore, there is a high probability that there will be no aircraft carriers participating in the joint military exercises that the United States may hold with the Philippines in the South China Sea "in the coming weeks", and if there is, it will only be the USS Washington, so we need to keep a close eye on the movements of the USS Washington for some time to come.
(The situation map of PLA ships and military aircraft in the South China Sea drawn by foreign military websites is for reference only)
Recently, the Philippine and American media have intensively exposed the news, claiming that the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has proposed an action plan to support the Philippines in sending supplies to the "beached" warship. But both U.S. and Filipino officials have said that U.S. involvement in any resupply mission for beached ships must be at the request of the Philippine government.
A senior Philippine defense official said Manila deliberately did not ask the United States to participate in previous resupply missions, despite the fact that the United States had provided "technical and logistical" support for those missions. The Philippine official said this remains Philippine policy in the wake of the recent conflict at Second Thomas Shoal. It can be seen that the Philippines is reluctant to bring in US troops to directly confront the Chinese Coast Guard at Ren'ai Jiao, because this is likely to trigger a conflict between China and the United States, the consequences of which the Philippines cannot afford, and the US military will not necessarily accept the Philippine demand.
Our response to the chaotic messages from the Philippines and the latest developments from the United States and its allies is to hold on to the initiative and strengthen our maritime capabilities. The action of the Shandong aircraft carrier group blocking the door of the Philippines sends a very clear signal to the Philippine-US alliance: That is, no matter who supports the Philippines, our determination to defend the sovereignty of territorial waters will not waver and we will fight to the end.