The impact of refinancing policy optimization on the issuance rhythm is a process of transmission from far to near, which will have a greater impact on the far end, that is, the early stage of the private placement project, and may have a smaller impact at the end of the issuance stage and the stage close to the market end.
In addition to the conventional standard of fundamental research and market judgment, this year will spend some energy to study the possibility of the return of the value of small and medium-sized enterprises that may be wrongly killed, as well as some long-term opportunities at the bottom of the industry cycle and the possibility of cycle reversal.
In terms of the reserve of follow-up private placement projects, it is considered that some listed companies may stop the implementation of refinancing or reduce the scale, but new discount assets, including small amount of rapid and inquiry transfer, will further provide investment opportunities for discount assets. After the market stabilizes significantly, the pace of issuance of private placement projects is also expected to further pick up.
The past year has been full of ups and downs in the market, with a lot of new discussions around the capital markets. As the most important equity financing tool for listed companies, private placement has also attracted market attention. What is the impact of policy-oriented optimization and changes in the market environment on a given increase market?
First, review the refinancing policy that has been gradually optimized.
On August 27, 2023, the Ministry of Finance, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Stock Exchange proposed a "dynamic balance of the primary and secondary markets"; On November 8, 2023, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges successively issued Q&A questions on optimizing the regulatory arrangements for refinancing, setting "five red lines" for the review of refinancing projects. In April 2024, the new "National Nine Measures" will be released, which will promote the high-quality development of the capital market and have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the overall capital market.
Among them, in particular, look at the "five red lines" reviewed by the exchange for refinancing projects in November 2023. We understand that the "five red lines" are not a one-size-fits-all approach to prohibit the refinancing of listed companies, but to help high-quality listed companies raise funds smoothly by setting a higher standard, but it is necessary to put an end to malicious money accumulation and excessive financing. For refinancing projects that serve the national strategic direction and are related to the national economy and people's livelihood, certain support will actually be given.
数据来源：Wind，2021.06.01-2024.05.31，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。大陆基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市、债市发展的所有阶段。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成基金业绩表现的保证。 The above figure shows the number and amount of monthly fixed increase project plans from 2021 to the present.
Why should I look at the private placement project plan? The early stage of the private placement project is mainly divided into four stages: the plan, the general meeting of shareholders, the issuance and examination meeting, and the approval. The plan is often the first step for a listed company to refinance from 0 to 1, which is actually the best reflection of the issuer's attitude, especially the regulator's attitude towards the entire refinancing market.
It can be seen that since the promulgation of the refinancing optimization policy in August, the number of overall refinancing issuance plans in a single month in September is 0. After adapting to the new requirements, some listed companies that meet the conditions and do have financing needs have launched project plans after reasonable communication. In the following period, the overall rhythm of the issuance plan gradually recovered.
According to Wind data, from January to May 2024, compared with the same period in previous years, the number of plans has recovered to the level of about 35%, and the amount of plans has been relatively limited, and it is currently back to about 15%. It can be seen that after the optimization of the refinancing policy, the private placement market is gradually recovering, but it is also affected by the market environment and index points.
数据来源：Wind，2021.06.01-2024.05.31，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。大陆基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市、债市发展的所有阶段。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成基金业绩表现的保证。 The above figure shows the number and amount of new private placement approvals every month, which reflects the attitude of the regulator towards the final release of projects that have started the issuance work and are in transit. It can be seen that since the optimization of the refinancing policy in August 2023, the impact in September is relatively obvious, but its overall delivery has been in a relatively stable state subsequently. Wind data shows that from January to May 2024, it will basically return to the previous level of 30%-40%.
数据来源：WInd，2020.02.14-2024.05.31，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。大陆基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市、债市发展的所有阶段。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成基金业绩表现的保证。
The above figure shows the number and amount of private placement projects issued each month, which more reflects the acceptance of market investors by the private placement market, because after the project gets the approval, the launch of the issuance is actually determined by the listed company and the market environment. We can intuitively feel that the impact of this change is getting smaller and smaller, and according to Wind data, by January-May 2024, compared with the same period in previous years, it will basically recover to the level of 50%. That is to say, the impact of the overall refinancing policy optimization on the issuance rhythm is a process from far to near, and the impact on the far end, that is, the early stage of the private placement project, will be greater, and the impact will be smaller at the end of the issuance stage and the stage close to the market end, so the impact from the policy to the market is a process of transmission from far and near.
In the tracking, we found that the discount of private placement issuance is mainly affected by the market environment. January-May 2024. The average issuance discount of the fixed increase is close to the level of 86%, which is also a relatively stable level from a historical point of view.
数据来源：Wind，2020.02.14-2024.6.14，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。大陆基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市、债市发展的所有阶段。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成基金业绩表现的保证。 The above figure shows the reserve of subsequent fixed increase projects. Wind data shows that as of June 2024, there are 274 bidding and fixed increase reserve projects, with a scale of about 500 billion. In 2023, more than 230 private placement projects will be issued in the whole market, with an actual financing scale of about 400 billion. We believe that a certain number of listed companies will choose to give up due to the environment and their own reasons, and we also believe that the amount of financing will be reduced after being guided by policies. Of course, we also note that new discounted assets, including small and quick and inquiry-based transfers, are complementing the overall market investment opportunities in discounted assets. After the market stabilizes significantly, the pace of issuance of private placement projects is also expected to further pick up.
Based on the analysis of the performance of the private placement bid since the new refinancing policy, we find that the style and return characteristics of the private placement market show certain differences in investment performance under different market environments and stages.
数据来源：财通基金，Wind， 2020.02.14-2023.12.31，按发行日市值统计，解禁日收益率=解禁日股价/发行日股价-1。材料中提及的定增折扣，会随着市场和个股的不同而变化，折扣率有可能为0。定增折扣不对个股情况、产品最终收益及未来情况构成任何保证。历史数据仅供参考，不对未来表现构成任何保证，不构成对基金业绩表现的任何承诺和保证，市场判断不对未来市场表现构成任何保证。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 The above chart is an analysis of the lifting performance of listed companies according to different market capitalizations since the new refinancing policy. It can be seen that in the first half of 2020, more large-scale white horse leading private placement projects were issued, and when the white horse market started in the second half of 2020, they finally got a relatively good performance in lifting the ban; In the third quarter of 2020, some small-cap private placement projects performed relatively generally in the market environment at that time; In 2021, if you continue to have a similar allocation idea, pay too much attention to the large-capitalization white horse leaders and give up the research on small-cap stocks, you will basically miss the fixed increase market in the next three years. In our statistical analysis, we found that from 2021 onwards, small-capitalization companies have significantly outperformed larger-capitalization companies.
The difference between private placement and secondary investment is that there is a lock-in period. In many cases, when we make investment decisions now, we also have to continue to look at the style changes that may occur in the market in the future.
数据来源：Wind，2020.03.01-2024.05.31，定增新政以来至2024年5月底所有已解禁项目，解禁日收益率=解禁日股价/发行日股价-1。材料中提及的定增折扣，会随着市场和个股的不同而变化，折扣率有可能为0。定增折扣不对个股情况、产品最终收益及未来情况构成任何保证。历史数据仅供参考，不对未来表现构成任何保证，不构成对基金业绩表现的任何承诺和保证。提及板块及行业不构成投资建议或承诺，不代表基金真实持仓情况，市场判断不对未来市场表现构成任何保证。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 Wind data shows that in the past four years, the better performers are basic chemicals, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, while real estate and other industries will perform relatively poorly. In the comparison of industries with large samples, basic chemicals, building decoration and other industries have better performance in lifting the ban, which is closely related to the large market environment and economic background.
Combined with the above analysis, looking forward to the second half of this year to next year, we look at the following aspects.
First of all, look at the inquiry transfer market.
While the fixed increase market has shrunk due to the impact of policies, we have seen that since last year, the inquiry transfer market has gradually emerged.
The inquiry transfer is conducive to the introduction of incremental funds, the optimization of investor structure, and the alleviation of liquidity risks that may be caused by traditional reductions, and the impact on stock price fluctuations in the secondary market. Since the second half of 2023, the regulator has successively issued a series of relevant opinions on improving the rules for reducing shareholdings, and put forward clearer constraints on bidding and block trading. At the same time, for shareholders who reduce their holdings, transaction inquiry and compliance are better than traditional block and auction reductions.
On the whole, we compare the private placement with the inquiry transfer: the private placement is the new shares, and the inquiry transfer is the transaction transfer of the existing shares; In the case of the issuance reserve price, the fixed increase is 80% of the average price of the first 20 trading days before the first day of the issuance period, and the inquiry transfer is 70% of the average price of the previous 20 trading days.
By 2023, the entire inquiry transfer market will reach about 18.2 billion yuan, but with the expansion of inquiry transfer from the Science and Technology Innovation Board to the Growth Enterprise Market in May this year, the project reserve will increase significantly. We estimate that there is a high probability that it will exceed 20 billion in 2024, and by 2025, the scale may continue to grow.
数据来源：Wind，2020.07.01-2024.05.31，2020年7月询价转让制度推出以来至2024年5月底所有已解禁项目，折扣率按成交价占簿记前一交易日收盘价比例，收益数据按解禁日收盘价计算。解禁日收益率=解禁日股价/发行日股价-1。材料中提及的定增折扣及询价转让折扣，会随着市场和个股的不同而变化，折扣率有可能为0。定增折扣及询价转让折扣不对个股情况、产品最终收益及未来情况构成任何保证。历史数据仅供参考，不对未来表现构成任何保证，不构成对基金业绩表现的任何承诺和保证。提及板块及行业不构成投资建议或承诺，不代表基金真实持仓情况，市场判断不对未来市场表现构成任何保证。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 On the whole, the average issuance discount of the current inquiry transfer is 89 discounts, which is slightly higher than the average issuance discount of 85 percent for private placements. Judging from the performance of the income from the lifting of the ban, it is similar to the fixed increase.
Secondly, from the perspective of market fluctuations, the value mining of the project.
Although the sharp fluctuations in micro-cap stocks at the beginning of this year do not mean that we have to lose confidence in the small-capitalization companies in the private placement market, on the contrary, we will think that under such market expectations or market fluctuations, some small-capitalization projects that have been wrongly killed and covered up may create greater mining value for us. In the actual tracking, we also found that the actual lifting results of some micro-cap stocks and small-cap stocks so far in 2024 are actually higher than the overall market expectations. Because when its value returns, it is expected to create more α for us, which we can explore.
Finally, let's talk about the dividends that everyone has been paying more attention to recently.
There are few constituent stocks of the dividend index involved in the private placement, so the weighting industry of the dividend index is split for reference. We can give priority to companies with high dividend yields and relatively low PB in the financial and energy sectors. However, because the number of targets in this part is limited, it is just that it may be a direction that everyone can learn from in the industry.
In addition to conventional fundamental research and market judgments, this year we will also spend energy to study the possibility of the return of the value of some small and medium-sized companies that may be wrongly killed, as well as some long-term opportunities at the bottom of the industry cycle, but there are possible reversal opportunities in the next six months and a year. At the same time, with the transfer of assets at the inquiry into our vision, we can also enrich the fixed increase strategy system of Caitong Fund through more investment targets.
风险提示：材料中提及的定增折扣，会随着市场和个股的不同而变化，折扣率有可能为0。定增折扣不对个股情况、产品最终收益及未来情况构成任何保证。定向增发的投资情况并非投资组合的投资情况，定向增发的盈利情况并非投资组合的实际盈利情况。定向增发的盈利情况仅为公司根据历史数据，假设限定条件统计和计算出来的结果，但投资组合的实际投资业绩受证券市场走势、定向增发项目的参与、获配和变现情况，其他投资标的损益、运营成本等因素影响，与定向增发的投资情况存在明显差异，亦存在定向增发投资盈利，但投资组合发生亏损的可能性。定增过程存在一系列特有风险，如股价波动风险（锁定期内及锁定期届满后）、锁定期风险、展期风险、投资顾问或财务顾问风险、集中度风险以及不能灵活调整组合的风险。历史平均折扣不对个股情况、最终收益及未来情况构成任何保证。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎；文中提及行业、板块不构成任何投资推介，文中市场判断不对未来市场表现构成任何保证，历史情况仅供参考；文中基础信息均来源于公开可获得的资料，基金管理人力求可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，获得报告的人士据此做出投资决策，应自行承担投资风险。大陆基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市、债市发展的所有阶段。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成基金业绩表现的保证。基金投资需谨慎，请投资者充分阅读《基金合同》《基金招募说明书》《基金产品资料概要》等法律文件。
定向增发的投资情况并非投资组合的投资情况，定向增发的盈利情况并非投资组合的实际盈利情况。定向增发的盈利情况仅为公司根据历史数据，假设限定条件统计和计算出来的结果，但投资组合的实际投资业绩受证券市场走势、定向增发项目的参与、获配和变现情况，其他投资标的损益、运营成本等因素影响，与定向增发的投资情况存在明显差异，亦存在定向增发投资盈利，但投资组合发生亏损的可能性。定增过程存在一系列特有风险，如股价波动风险（锁定期内及锁定期届满后）、锁定期风险、展期风险、投资顾问或财务顾问风险、集中度风险以及不能灵活调整组合的风险。历史平均折扣不对个股情况、最终收益及未来情况构成任何保证。询价转让有一定锁定期。在遇到市场或所投证券出现不利波动时，资产管理人难以根据市场判断对投资组合进行调整，从而可能导致受托资产的损失。