The situation in the South China Sea has become increasingly tense, and the United States, as the driving force behind it, has never given up on winning over ASEAN. However, instead of doing what the US envisioned, ASEAN is ready to speed up the process of negotiating a "code of conduct in the South China Sea" with China.
A few days ago, ASEAN Secretary-General Gao Jinhong paid a visit to the United States. At the Shangri-La summit some time ago, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin planned to talk about "alliance cooperation" with ASEAN. Earlier, the United States also announced that it would invest $8 billion in confrontation with China in the Indo-Pacific region, which is undoubtedly another "bait" for ASEAN.
Therefore, the United States also attaches great importance to the ASEAN Secretary-General's visit, and the US State Department has actively facilitated the ASEAN Secretary-General's visit.
In addition to seeking to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN in various fields and deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership, what the United States wants most is to mobilize ASEAN on the South China Sea issue and let ASEAN join the camp of confrontation with China. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell urged ASEAN to make a clear statement on the Philippines' concerns in the South China Sea.
[ASEAN Secretary-General Gao Jinhong visits the United States]
So, whether ASEAN will issue a statement to strongly support the Philippines, Gao Jinhong did not give a positive answer, he said, ASEAN member states have their own foreign policies, and the specific way to do it is up to each member state to decide.
But for ASEAN, Mr. Gao said the group called on all parties in the South China Sea to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation of regional tensions. This statement can be said to be diametrically opposed to what the United States expected.
More importantly, the ASEAN side not only did not say what the US side wanted to hear, but was also prepared to speed up negotiations with China.
On the South China Sea issue, ASEAN's position is consistent, peacefully resolving contradictions and avoiding escalation of regional tensions. Therefore, ASEAN has not chosen to take sides, and has reached an agreement with China in this regard, and the two sides are now committed to promoting the development and implementation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
Now, as the situation in the South China Sea continues to escalate, the Philippine side's provocations against China are becoming more serious every time, which is not only reflected in the South China Sea, but also the Philippine side has to set up more obstacles for Chinese to enter the Philippines. The United States, Japan, and other foreign forces are meddling in the South China Sea issue more frequently and more deeply.
In this context, ASEAN has a growing sense of urgency and is prepared to expedite negotiations with China on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, preferably by 2026.
[ASEAN plans to strengthen negotiations with China on the South China Sea issue]
As for how to resolve the South China Sea issue, China and ASEAN have been discussing since the 90s of the last century. In 2002, the two sides reached a Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. However, the signing of the document did not completely ease tensions in the South China Sea, so the two sides put a more specific and binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea on the agenda. Over the past few years, China and ASEAN have held a number of negotiations, but have not been able to achieve concrete results, such as the scope of application of the norms and how to resolve conflicts with other international treaties such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
But now, rising tensions in the South China Sea have clearly served as a catalyst for more urgent negotiations between China and ASEAN to ensure that the regional situation does not spiral out of control. It can also be said that the more the United States hopes that ASEAN will take sides on the South China Sea issue and force ASEAN to support the Philippines, the stronger the counterproductive effect will be, and the more it will be able to speed up the formulation and implementation of the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea."
China and ASEAN are each other's largest trading partners, and ASEAN knows very well how to choose what is beneficial to itself.
However, while ASEAN seeks to speed up the negotiation process with China, there are still many difficulties. As the ASEAN Secretary-General said, ASEAN member states have their own foreign policies, which makes it easy for different voices to emerge within ASEAN during the negotiation process. That is, there are divisions within ASEAN.
[Philippine ship forcibly entered the South China Sea and was driven away by the Chinese coast guard]
Recently, in addition to the Philippines, Vietnam has also had conflicts with China in the South China Sea. According to a report by a US think tank, in the past six months, while China and the Philippines are engaged in a confrontation in the South China Sea, Vietnam has secretly done a lot of things to speed up the pace of island reclamation in the South China Sea. Some time ago, a Chinese hospital ship was conducting a tour of the Paracel Islands, and the Vietnamese side also strongly expressed its opposition.
As a result, when China and ASEAN are negotiating, countries such as the Philippines are likely to make different voices, or directly establish a presence and strengthen control over some islands and reefs in the South China Sea, hoping to influence the content of the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" negotiations, which will make the negotiations more difficult and prolong.
In short, the resolution of the South China Sea issue is destined to take a lot of time and overcome many difficulties. However, for China, the last thing is time. At present, China has exercised restraint on the South China Sea issue and has not taken any action against the Philippines, in addition to maintaining stability in the region, it also intends to exchange time for more initiative.
In the final analysis, these countries have chosen to confront China on the South China Sea issue because the United States and other external forces have instigated and instigated it. However, the support of the United States is limited, and when China is not fooled, the United States' support and attention to the Philippines and other countries will also decrease, and at that time, it will be a good time for China to resolve the South China Sea issue.