Moutai fell every day, and scalpers panicked

City Boundary

2024-06-15 16:13 Posted on the official account of Beijing Municipality

Moutai fell every day, and scalpers panicked

Kweichow Moutai, the "king of wine", ushered in a difficult moment, and the stock price fell for many days, approaching 1,500 yuan per share. The price of Feitian Moutai has also fallen below several marks one after another, and now a bottle is approaching 2,200 yuan. All the people who have interests in Moutai are now panicking. The time has come to test Moutai's new handsome Zhang Deqin, who has only been in office for more than a month, and Moutai's stock price and wine price are both under pressure.

01. Fell below several major thresholds one after another

On June 10, the day of the Dragon Boat Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival ceremony of Moutai Jiachen Year (2024) was held in Moutai Town. Wheat is one of the important raw materials of Moutai. The Dragon Boat Festival salute wheat means that a new round of koji production of Moutai will be opened.

At the Dragon Boat Festival ceremony two years ago, Ding Xiongjun, then chairman of Moutai, attended the event and delivered a speech. At this year's Dragon Boat Festival ceremony, only two vice presidents came to the top leadership of Moutai Group, the new chairman Zhang Deqin and Wang Li, who will be the general manager of Moutai Group in August 2023, did not appear.

Originally, the Dragon Boat Festival coincided with 618 e-commerce activities, which should be a small peak season, but I didn't expect this year to be lighter than the off-season, and there was "unpleasantness" between scalpers and e-commerce because of interest issues. The batch price of Moutai has been declining for a long time.

Most of the people related to the Moutai industry are more concerned about how Moutai will respond and what route will it take next? Each chairman has an interpretation and positioning of Moutai, and Zhang Deqin encountered a continuous decline in prices as soon as he took office, and everyone wanted to hear his voice or introduce some policies at this time. Even if it is like Li Baofang, the then chairman of Moutai, who once controlled the price, he is now going to raise the price.

However, Zhang Deqin has not spoken out about this at present, and some activities of Moutai, such as the Dragon Boat Festival, have not been attended.

In the so-called "Maotai" group and "Maotai" group, wine merchants, scalpers and those who grab Moutai to make the difference are all worried. "It's not the cost that determines the price, it's the expectations of the market that determine it. If the expectations are very unsatisfactory, you must cut the meat and get off. ”

▲ (Screenshot from the "Mao" group)

During the Dragon Boat Festival, Moutai did not heat up, but the price continued to fall before the festival and continued to decline after the holiday.

Huang Yu, a wine merchant, said that many of the goods that were sold after the festival were received before the festival, but there was no sales during the Dragon Boat Festival. "Scalpers have a large number of goods in their hands, and they are all received at higher prices before."

In April, the reference batch price of Feitian Moutai fell below 2,600 yuan, on the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival, it fell below 2,500 yuan, and after the Dragon Boat Festival, it fell to around 2,400 yuan. According to today's wine price, Feitian Moutai fell off a cliff, and on June 14, the reference price of the batch price fell from 2420 yuan the previous day to 2230 yuan.

Wine merchants regard 2,500 yuan as a safety line, a break-even line between cost and profit. Wine merchants are different from Kweichow Moutai's official distributors, whose profits are related to the ex-factory price, while wine merchants, who are unofficial distributors, are equivalent to being in the "second-hand market". Different from the second-hand market of other goods, Moutai is worth more in the "second-hand market".

These wine merchants make the difference in the price of reselling, so their break-even line is not directly related to the ex-factory price of Moutai, but is closely related to the market price and the "second-hand market" market where the scalpers are located.

Now, in the "second-hand market", the safety line of 2,500 yuan has been broken. Moutai's belief in "always bullish" seems to have been shaken. On June 14, the topic of "no one collects Moutai 2,300 yuan" rushed to the hot search on Weibo.

In e-commerce activities, the price of Feitian Moutai is falling rapidly.

On the morning of June 13, the price of Feitian Moutai's 10 billion subsidy in Pinduoduo fell to 2,340 yuan; Double bottles are even cheaper, down to 4,590 yuan, and one bottle is 2,295 yuan. In Taobao's 10 billion subsidy channel, the price of Feitian has also fallen to 2346 yuan, 4577 yuan for double bottles, 2288.5 yuan per bottle, and random gifts are also given.

And on the afternoon of June 13, the same Pinduoduo subsidy of 10 billion yuan, the price of Feitian Moutai dropped to 2,280 yuan. On the same platform, in one day, just from morning to afternoon, the price of a bottle of Feitian dropped by 60 yuan.

On the morning of June 14, in Taobao and Pinduoduo's tens of billions of subsidies, Feitian Moutai became 2,277 yuan for a single bottle and 4,527 yuan for two bottles. Compared to the previous day, the price has dropped again. The customer service said that due to the large changes in the wine market, it is not supported to make up the difference.

Similar to the price of liquor, Moutai's share price is also declining.

On May 6, the total market value of Kweichow Moutai surpassed China Mobile and became the "king of shares" in A-shares again. As of the close of trading on May 6, the total market value of Kweichow Moutai was 2.21 trillion yuan, and the total market value of China Mobile was 2.16 trillion yuan. At the close of trading on May 7, Kweichow Moutai also ushered in a phased high since 2024, with a total market value of more than 2.22 trillion yuan.

However, as of the close of trading on June 13, the total market value of Kweichow Moutai has fallen below 2 trillion yuan, shrinking to 1.95 trillion yuan, while the total market value of China Mobile is still more than 2.17 trillion yuan. Kweichow Moutai has lost the position of "stock king" again.

From the close of May 7 to the close of June 13, but more than a month, counting carefully, in just 26 trading days, Kweichow Moutai's wine price and stock price both continued to decline, the stock price fell by more than 11%, and the total market value has lost 270 billion yuan. In this regard, the staff of Kweichow Moutai Securities Department responded that the company has been paying attention to changes in stock prices and wine prices, and the current production and operation are normal.

02. Worries continue to spread

"I have more than 500 bottles to fly around, and the cost is around 2,500, and now I am panicking." In the wine group, everyone is discussing the price every day, and it has fallen to about 2,200 yuan on June 14, and many people have similar concerns.

"Now everyone just doesn't have confidence, and the price is unstable. If the price falls below 2200, the price system established by Moutai will have to be reshaped, and there are too many interest chains involved. Once the price moves sideways around 2200, the scalpers lose a lot. Huang Yu said.

In mid-January, the end of the year is approaching, and the market is okay. Zhang Qing, a "scalper" who has been selling and reselling Moutai for a long time, told "City Boundary" that the price of his Feitian is about 2,650 yuan, and the price of selling is about 2,720 yuan.

After the Dragon Boat Festival, all kinds of voices arose, "scalpers ran away" and "wine merchants stopped collecting"...... The batch price in the market also continued to fall, and the reference price almost fell to 2,400 yuan. In fact, scalpers resell at a lower price.

On June 12, Zhang Qing told City Boundary that the recycle price was about 2,300 yuan, and the selling price was about 2,400 yuan. "This market can't be reversed, it's going to collapse, so I can only sell it while collecting it, and I close it at a low price, and it is estimated that it will soon fall to 2,200 yuan."

Zhang Qing said that the reference prices of various batch prices in the market are only references, and the actual prices are lower than the reference prices.

The "Mao Mao Party" also called it back. "The 4 bottles of the gourd baby platform were reversed, and the cost of getting it is not low, the cost of a single bottle is 2200+"; "6 bottles of 2600 were smashed in my hands, and they were subsidized by 10 billion yuan in March"; "I also have 6 bottles. Cost per bottle 2290"......

The so-called "gourd baby" is a platform launched by Guizhou and local enterprises, and the e-commerce platforms of these enterprises are similar, all of which bundle Guizhou specialties with Moutai, and there are seven mainstream platforms, such as Hanglu Qiangou, Guilv Youpin, Guiyan Qianpin, Zunhang Mountain, etc., which are nicknamed "gourd babies" by everyone.

On the Huluwa platform, consumers can get points for buying special products, 1 point for one yuan for consumption, and 1400 points can be qualified to buy two bottles of 1499 yuan Feitian.

On the Huluwa platform, the cost of a bottle of Feitian Moutai is about 2,234 yuan, of which Feitian Moutai is 1,499 yuan, the specialty is 700 yuan, and the shipping fee is 35 yuan.

Huluwa, together with Xunfeng and other platforms, will build 2,200 yuan as the bottom line for scalpers. And now, 2,200 yuan is also crumbling.

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, scalpers and e-commerce wine merchants also had an "unpleasant" occurrence - "merchants smashed scalpers' bowls, scalpers smashed merchants' pots".

During the promotion activities of 618 e-commerce platforms, wine merchants on e-commerce engaged in Feitian Moutai pre-sale for 15-20 days, but at the same time, Feitian continued to fall, one price a day, resulting in a relatively high price when scalpers who made the difference placed orders, but after the arrival of the goods, it has fallen to another market. Scalpers are unprofitable, and even incur losses as soon as the goods arrive.

The logic is that some merchants take advantage of the falling market to make money through pre-sale shorting, the platform's subsidies are set, the money is earned, and the sales volume and orders are also available, but in the end, the ones who pay the bill have become scalpers who want to make the difference. Moreover, many wine merchants did not dare to accept it, and many of the goods that flowed into the market flowed back to e-commerce merchants, resulting in a continuous decline in the market and smashing the jobs of scalpers.

As a result, scalpers began to fight back, demanding that e-commerce merchants return goods, or issue invoices or subsidies.

The downward trend of the market has not stopped. A wine merchant said, "Since I entered the industry in 2019, Moutai has almost fallen below the lowest price, except for the special period in the first half of 2020."

Some practitioners also said that in fact, everyone has lost confidence in the market. "Baijiu is regarded as an economic lubricant and a barometer of economic development. Even if e-commerce does not engage in this wave, Moutai will fall, and e-commerce only plays a role in fueling the flames and accelerating the decline. ”

03, the days of making money by turning hands are over

In the past few years when Moutai has been hot, in addition to Moutai Distillery and official distributors, a complete industrial chain has been formed in the market, and Moutai grabbers, scalpers, wine merchants, hoarders, and investment speculation ...... For a while, it was unclear who was the real "Mao Fan".

Moutai's channel reform, whether it is making appointments for sales on JD.com and Tmall, or the launch of the direct sales channel i Moutai, has allowed the "Maotai" group to continue to expand.

From the post-90s to the post-00s, many young people who don't drink and don't like the wine table culture have gradually become "Mao fans", snapping up, reselling, and hoarding. Moutai is no longer wine, drumming and passing flowers, and leaving money in hand.

To put it bluntly, many so-called "Mao fans" are actually "scalpers", but there are big and small.

Of course, the hotter Moutai is, the more people will participate in the drumming and flower passing game. I don't know if you still remember that at the beginning of January 2021, the number of people who made an appointment for 1499 yuan Feitian Moutai on JD.com exceeded 2 million.

At that time, people knew that Moutai was a "consumer product, luxury goods, collectibles, and investment goods", and it was earned when it was handed over.

No one knows exactly how much Moutai's social stock is. However, in recent years, under the financial attributes, everyone is grabbing Moutai, and the social inventory is getting higher and higher. It has been said that social inventories are like a ticking time bomb.

And now, when the belief in price increases is shaken, those related to it are more worried. Moreover, as soon as the "wine king" Moutai moves, the wine industry will move. As Huang Yu said, Feitian Moutai can't be stabilized, and other liquors have to be implicated.

Also on June 13, the official guide price of Moutai 1935 was 1188 yuan, which had fallen below this guide price, and the price of the 10 billion subsidy in Pinduoduo had dropped to 1679 yuan for two bottles, which was 839.5 yuan for a single bottle. At the beginning of the year, the official guide price was 2499 yuan, and it was once fried to about 4000 yuan in January, however, on June 13, the price of Taobao's 10 billion subsidy channel was 2799 yuan, even if it was not 10 billion subsidies, most of them were between 2800-2900 yuan.

Under Feitian Moutai, another high-end single product, the eighth-generation Wuliangye (52 degrees), the core product of the former "King of Wine" Wuliangye, is subsidized at a price of 1,672 yuan for two bottles and 836 yuan for a single bottle. The official retail price is 1499 yuan.

"From the real sales volume of Puwu, it can probably be seen that high-end liquor is like Maowu, and the consumer group is actually fixed. Look at the sales of Puwu, and then look at the sales of Moutai, you will know how much Moutai is in the hands of large and small scalpers. The high price of Moutai is inseparable from financial attributes. Huang Yu analyzed.

As Huang Yu said, "If the real demand in the market does not come up, there is still room for decline, look at the changes in the real estate and consumer markets." If you think about it, the price of 2000+ is not something that ordinary people can consume. ”

The game of drumming and passing flowers can only be played by enough people.

Now, scalpers, wine merchants, and panic buyers are worried, and the number of people who make appointments on e-commerce platforms is also declining. On June 14, 2024, on JD.com, the number of reservations for 1,499 yuan Feitian Moutai was only more than 100,000. Once upon a time, this was a "daily activity" where millions of people participated in the pre-order rush to buy.

"As long as the price stabilizes, the game will continue to be played. The problem is that the market that continues to fall does not know when it will be a head. A wine merchant said.

(Zhang Qing and Huang Yu are pseudonyms in the article)

(Author |.) Lei Yanpeng, editor | Chen Fang)

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