Since the beginning of this year, the United States has once again asked the Netherlands and Japan to strengthen the control of chip equipment such as lithography machines, stop supplying 7nm 2000i and other lithography machines to China, and even ask ASML to stop repairing lithography machines that have been sold to China, and now the consequences are beginning to appear.
According to the photos posted by netizens, there are many lithography machines placed in the open space outside a factory, and these lithography machines seem to have become scrap metal, and netizens speculate that some lithography machines have been abandoned because ASML has stopped providing maintenance services.
ASML's maintenance service is very important for chip manufacturing enterprises, it is reported that some lithography machine accessories are wear parts, and ASML must provide special accessories and activate them every once in a while, otherwise the lithography machine cannot be used, and it is even said that the lithography machine needs to be activated by ASML every once in a while before it can be used.
ASML's approach has had a huge impact on it, the first quarter of this year's performance shows that ASML's new orders have decreased by 60%, and net profit has also fallen sharply by more than 40%.
Analysts also pointed out that not only ASML was countered, many lithography machine suppliers in the United States have experienced a decline in performance, ASML's lithography machine needs a long industrial chain, the latest 2nm EUV lithography machine weighs 180 tons, and more than 5,000 companies around the world need to supply related accessories, and American suppliers are one of the important industrial chain enterprises, in fact, EUV lithography technology is provided by the United States, ASML's lithography machine sales have declined sharply, and naturally American suppliers have also received orders that have dropped sharply.
Chinese mainland is already the most important market for ASML, especially with the development of chip technology to 7 nanometers, TSMC, Intel, Samsung's 5 nanometers, 3 nanometers process mass production, they have no need to buy the first generation of EUV lithography machine, other overseas chip companies have long stopped the research and development of 7 nanometers and below process, the first generation of EUV lithography machine is now facing the embarrassing situation of no customer procurement.
ASML is now pinning its hopes on 2nm EUV lithography machines, but 2nm EUV lithography machines are too expensive, up to 380 million US dollars each, the expensive price has discouraged Samsung and TSMC, only Intel has purchased 6 2nm EUV lithography machines, TSMC is trying to use the existing first-generation EUV lithography machine to produce 2nm process, in order to reduce costs as much as possible and extend the life of the first-generation EUV lithography machine.
The Chinese mainland market shows great potential, last September ASML suddenly obtained permission to sell advanced DUV lithography machines such as 2000i for 7nm to China, China purchased a large number of lithography machines, from September to the end of the year China purchased lithography machines are doubled, and finally in 2023 China purchased 450 DUV lithography machines, contributing 46% of ASML's revenue, which shows how important the Chinese market is.
After the United States insisted that ASML not sell advanced DUV lithography machines to China, ASML's performance plummeted rapidly, and ASML was unwilling to be defeated, and now it has changed its CEO, and the new CEO is French, and ASML also intends to move to France, hoping to rely on French influence to open up the situation in the Chinese market and avoid continuing to be subject to the United States.
ASML also deeply understands that the business of lithography machine has not been long, it believes that the 2nm EUV lithography machine may be the limit of the lithography machine, the existing market only Chinese mainland market has not been fully developed, and advanced quantum chips, photonic chips and other technologies have made major breakthroughs, when these advanced chip technologies are commercialized, the current lithography machine will be reduced to scrap iron.