Stock selection logic (all must be met when selecting stocks, strictly implemented):
(1) Fry the new not the old, and fry the low but not the high; (2) only do the core, not stray hair; (3) Buy tickets and choose the trend to buy, try to buy as low as possible and not chase high; (4) There is no bottom in the fall, and the fool Bo rebounds;
Sell Logic:
If it falls below a certain stop-loss moving average for two consecutive days, it must be sold; (Note: The moving average is generally the 5, 10, and 20-day lines, and the stop loss level needs to move up with the rise of the stock, but not down; ）
Index Sentiment Analysis:
Feng Shui turns the market, following the small ticket fully killed the fall for 14 days, the big ticket began to make up for the fall. On the disk, following the wave of liquor, new energy, nonferrous metals and other leaders, today it is the turn of the shipping leaders to fall at a high level.
Judging from the laws of history, the big ticket is often in the late stage of adjustment, and the darkness before the dawn is almost the end of the darkness.
The problem now is that the amount of energy of 700 billion yuan is the most undesirable state, and it is simply unable to attract over-the-counter funds to enter the market. In a market that does not have a sustained money-making effect, it is still unclear when the index will reverse.
The height of the recent board
The good thing is that the recent short-term sentiment has continued to repair, and after nearly a month, the height of the board has come to 6 boards again. The most likely direction to break the situation in the future is the chip concept corresponding to the highest standard in the market, Concord Electronics.
As mentioned earlier, the observation window given by the bottoming rally here is three days, and on the last day of tomorrow, if the chip can still remain active and the faucet continues to connect the board, then it is very likely to reverse with the index.
Of course, the above is also the biggest problem of the chip at present, there is no resonance. And if the sector is really strong, it needs to have an opportunity to resonate with the index in the near future. And that timing is tomorrow!
But to be reasonable, in terms of the current market volume and heat, it is still quite difficult. There is also a high probability that the market will continue to rotate, then go down for the last time, and finally reverse completely.
Theme Analysis:
The only direction in the market that has a continuous money-making effect is chips, which is also the core of recent continuous observation.
Chip concept: This position is mainly in the layout of institutions, so you can see that under the weak market, many big tickets are moving against the trend. The logic of plate speculation is two: (1) the third phase of the big fund is 300 billion + 1.5 trillion yuan of long-term investment, and the neck is tackled + independent substitution, which drives the prosperity of the market; (2) The industry cycle bottomed out, and the export data of integrated circuits exceeded expectations. Since the end of last year, all branches represented by memory chips have begun to recover, and institutions have begun to increase their positions here, and the game cycle has reversed.
Here are the main stocks in the sector:
At present, the active targets of chips are: 6B high-standard Concord Electronics; 4B Zhongjing Technology; GEM Lianban Shuangle shares; Trend core: Shanghai Belling, Taiji shares; Other Yihao New Materials, Tongyi Shares, Wanrun Technology, Yachuang Electronics, etc.
Among them, the feedback of individual stocks such as Concord Electronics, Shuangle Shares, and Shanghai Belling is particularly critical, especially Concord, whether it continues to open up space upwards directly determines the height of the plate. To be reasonable, if the chip wants to become the main line, it can't fall down until it is completely strong.
The strength and weakness of tomorrow's plate are as follows: (1) the aggressiveness of high-standard Concord Electronics and Zhongjing Technology (the former is 11,000 and +7% or more is strong; The latter 9400 hands, flat is strong); (2) Trend and popularity core Shanghai Belling bidding intensity (50,000, +4% or more is strong); (3) The bidding intensity of Shuangle shares of the GEM Pioneer Board (8,000 lots, +12% or more is strong).
Tomorrow's Strategy:
The core is to look at the market volume and the sustainability of the chip, the market is large, the chip continues to attack, and the index can be reversed.