Focus on the daily blockbuster news of the A-share market! Before reading the text, you must know one thing: there are not a few main funds that will be stupid enough to pull the stock price straight up to the limit as soon as the good news comes out, so please be patient and let the good fly for a while, maybe you will find different investment opportunities!
【Domestic and foreign financial news/A-share market】
Surprise 1: Restart! All three major exchanges have resumed IPO listing committee meetings!
Event: According to the official website of the Beijing Stock Exchange, the Listing Committee is scheduled to hold a review meeting on the morning of June 17 to consider the application for the initial offering of Chengdian Guangxin. This is the first time that the meeting of the Listing Committee of the Beijing Stock Exchange has been restarted after a four-month pause. At the same time, it also means that the listing committee meetings of the three major exchanges have resumed.
Comments: During the IPO suspension, the regulator has improved and adjusted the listing systems and plans of the three major exchanges. It is foreseeable that although the three major exchanges have fully restarted IPOs, the previous IPO chaos should not appear again. After strengthening IPO supervision, companies that have newly entered the A-share market are undoubtedly more interesting in terms of fundamentals. Although the resumption of IPO is bearish news for the entire market, in Jingyang's view, companies that log in to A-shares after the IPO system is perfected and standardized will have a smaller chance of financial risk, on the contrary, it is safer!
Surprise 2: This Wednesday, the US CPI and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will land at the same time!
Events: On Wednesday, the global market will see two important economic events: the US consumer price index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Comments: These two things will have an important impact on when the Fed will cut interest rates this year and how many times it will cut interest rates! While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the release of inflation data from Powell will provide the market with more clues about the likely magnitude of interest rate cuts this year. In this regard, Citi, an international investment bank, said that these two major events may trigger a 1.25% movement in the S&P 500 index on the day, which will be the largest fluctuation in market expectations before the Fed's decision since March 2023.
Market forecast: During the long holiday and the first week after the long holiday, the global capital market news is mixed, and the impact on the trend of the A-share market after the holiday will be integrated. Therefore, most of the A-shares after the holiday still run at their own pace. From a technical point of view, the market will bottom out before the 3,000-point integer mark. The starting point of the rebound is to stand firmly on the 5-day line on the market!
【Industry/Sector/Theme Concept Positive Comments】
Surprise three: the National Standing Committee will study new measures for real estate destocking, and the industry is about to hit the bottom!
Event: This weekend, the National Standing Committee just held pointed out that it is necessary to fully understand the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, comply with the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, focus on promoting the implementation of the policies and measures that have been introduced, and continue to study and reserve new policy measures to destock and stabilize the market.
Comment: The news is good for the real estate sector. Some institutions believe that after the fundamentals of the real estate industry have undergone a deep adjustment, the current mortgage burden ratio has improved significantly, and it is expected that the natural demand of the real estate industry is expected to come. In the A-share market, the real estate sector was bought by institutional funds in a short period of time two weeks ago, but there has been no obvious action since then. Judging from the trend, the main force that entered the market in the early stage may still be trapped in the plate, so the plate also needs to rebound to help the main force save itself. On the technical form, the real estate sector has fallen below the moving average harness in a continuous pullback, into the downward channel, last Friday's rebound when the sector index has not yet stood on the 5-day line to stop falling, if this week in the positive stimulus on the 5-day line to stop falling, then the short-term will continue to rebound to test the upper 20-day line pressure level, and then weaken again.
Hype cycle: short-term
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: Although the real estate sector has the main intervention in the early stage, the retracement is large when it rises and falls, and the trend has been destroyed. At present, although there is a demand for reverse pumping in the entire sector, the space will not be too large. If there is a first hand quilt in the early stage, you can consider reducing your position in the short term. However, if there is no pioneer quilt before, if you want to buy the bottom in the near future, you must be prepared to go in and out quickly.
Related companies: Binjiang Group (002244), China Merchants Shekou (001979), Gemdale Group (600383), Vanke A (000002), etc.
Surprise 4: Apple will hold the annual WWDC Worldwide Developers Conference!
Event: Last night, Apple held its annual WWDC Worldwide Developers Conference with the slogan "Big Moves". The biggest highlight of the conference was the release of the latest operating system, iOS 18. The new version of the operating system brings a host of innovative features, including the potential integration of generative AI technology, marking Apple's official incorporation of AI capabilities.
Comments: Apple has announced a partnership agreement with OpenAI that will bring users an intelligent chat experience comparable to ChatGPT. It will also allow OpenAI to reach hundreds of millions of Apple users, including those who might otherwise be reluctant to try ChatGPT. The news is good for the AI mobile phone sector, if Apple goes into the water, it will undoubtedly accelerate the popularity of AI mobile phones in a shorter period of time! On the side of the A-share market, institutional funds have recently entered the AIPC sector in advance, but the participation of institutions in the same type of AI mobile phone sector is not too high. Now AI mobile phones are ushering in landmark events, or they may become an important fuse for the main force to increase the position of AI mobile phone plates! In terms of plate trends, the short-term performance of AI mobile phones is weaker than the broader market, and it is currently in the downward channel, and there has not yet been a stop signal.
Hype cycle: short-term
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: After the blockbuster is landed, if the sector index is strong on the first day, the sector index rises by more than 5%, and there are many shares in the plate, it indicates that large funds have begun to enter the market. If the plate does not rise much on the first day, it will be mainly wait-and-see, and it will be considered in the next few days until the plate index stands firm on the 5-day line.
Related companies: Siquan New Materials (301489), Thundersoft (300496), Daoming Optics (002632), etc.
Fierce material five: strong production and sales! The prosperity of the tire industry continues to rebound!
Event: Recently, the authoritative organization released the list of the top 25 tires in the world. In the context of the challenges faced by global tire giants, China has the largest number of tire companies on the list, including Sen Kirin, Triangle Tire, Linglong Tire, etc. According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, in the first four months of this year, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires in mainland China increased by 11% year-on-year, and the export value increased by 20% year-on-year!
Comment: The news is good for the tire sector. In addition to the above news, the previous budget notice of car trade-in subsidies issued by the Ministry of Finance is also a big positive for the tire market. In this regard, some institutional research reports believe that tires have ushered in a stage where short-term, medium-term and long-term logic are all upward, and the future is expected to usher in a cycle of valuation and earnings recovery and upward adjustment. On the side of the A-share market, the depth of the tire sector is not large, and there are not many listed companies covered, so it is difficult to stimulate the deep involvement of large funds. However, in the context of the industry's high prosperity, the performance of relevant listed companies will still support the stock price out of the medium-term trend!
Hype cycle: midline
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: The industry's prosperity is a substantial positive, although there is no big capital intervention in the sector, and the short-term explosiveness is not strong, but the margin of safety is higher in the medium term under the support of performance. Therefore, the tire sector is more suitable for patient investors to take medium-term positions.
Related companies: Mori Kirin (002984), Triangle Tire (601163), Linglong Tire (601966), Sailun Tire (601058), etc.
Surprise 6: The largest photovoltaic event in history is about to be held!
Event: The 17th (2024) International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy (Shanghai) Conference and Exhibition will be held soon. According to the official introduction of the conference, the SNEC exhibition is the largest in the past years. The exhibition includes photovoltaic production equipment, materials, photovoltaic cells, photovoltaic application products and components, as well as photovoltaic engineering and systems, energy storage, mobile energy, etc., covering all links of the photovoltaic industry chain.
Comments: The news is good for the photovoltaic sector. There are two key contents of this conference: one is whether the N-type battery will take the TOPCON route or the BC battery route; The second is the integration of AI and the photovoltaic sector. In the A-share market, between May 8 and May 22, institutional funds concentrated on increasing their positions in the photovoltaic sector, but after May 22, institutional intervention slowed down significantly. At present, the entire sector is dragged down by the market and weakened the downward channel, but the plate index also deviates downward from the 5-day line and is oversold, indicating that the retracement before the holiday is too large, and the possibility of a reversal after the holiday is not ruled out.
Hype cycle: short-term
Explosive strength: ★★★
Trading strategy: The photovoltaic sector has been involved in the early stage, and if the photovoltaic industry event releases a heavyweight benefit, it is not excluded that the main force will pull up a wave of homeopathy. Therefore, if the sector continues to fall sharply in the short term, you can consider taking a light position and buying the bottom in the short term. However, the high boom cycle of the industry has passed, so the sector is only suitable for short-term speculation, and it is difficult to get out of the trend market in the medium term.
Related companies: Lushan New Materials (603051), Aiko (600732), Junda (002865), Jinchen (603396), etc.
【Northbound Funds/Tourist Capital Trends/Institutional Seats】
Northbound capital trends: Northbound funds sold a net of 705 million yuan on May 7. Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Midea Group were net sold 1.319 billion yuan, 658 million yuan, and 537 million yuan respectively. NAURA received the largest net purchase, with 327 million yuan.
Key snipers of tour capital bosses: Shangtang Road: net purchase of Ningbo Fuda 24.2146 million, Ningbo Sangtian Road: net purchase of Ningbo Fuda 18.4084 million, Fang Xinxia: net purchase of Zongshen Power 75.3001 million, Shanghai Liyang Road: net purchase of Zhongjing Technology 17.4523 million.
Institutional funds bought in a single day (10 million +): New Taizheng 002968, real estate, 3 institutions bought and 1 institution sold, and the institutional net purchase was 34.34 million, accounting for 34.23%, which was the largest number of stocks that institutions bought the most last Friday.
Institutional funds continue to buy within 10 days (10 million+): none.
Overall position adjustment of institutional funds: On June 7, institutions bought 4 stocks with a net purchase of more than 10 million and sold 9 stocks with a net sale of more than 10 million. Last Friday, the A-share market fluctuated in a narrow range, still in the weak area below the 5-day line, and it is difficult to stop falling and stabilize if the market is not on the 5-day line. On the same day, the buying of institutional seats shrank significantly, the selling orders were released sharply, and institutional funds turned from a small net inflow on Thursday to a moderate net outflow.
Institutional capital sector rebalancing: From the perspective of the sector's capital flow, in terms of the main line hot spot (the main direction of recent institutions), the photoresist that rose on Thursday was increased by institutional funds in a small amount, and it is also the only main line hot spot that has been increased; When energy equipment rebounded slightly, a small amount of institutional funds were sold. There are no anchor institutions involved in other directions.
In terms of non-main line hot spots (a small number of institutions have recently participated in the direction), after a continuous pullback, the real estate sector, which rebounded sharply on Friday, was bought back by a small amount of institutional funds, in addition, cross-border e-commerce was increased by a small amount of institutions; Consumer electronics were sold by institutions, and PCB, CPO, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, auto parts, papermaking, semiconductors, etc. were reduced by institutions.
Overall, after a slight return of main funds on Thursday, the broader market did not fall on Friday, and when small-cap stocks rebounded in a large area, institutional funds chose to sell high and leave the market. In the direction of a small number of positions on the day, semiconductors are still the key target. It can be seen from this that the willingness of institutions to go long is not very strong.
This article is from Jingyang's financial self-media matrix, released before 6 o'clock in the morning every trading day, I hope you can keep abreast of the latest news of the A-share market industry, sectors and listed companies through this article, as well as the latest position adjustment trends of various main funds. In the choice of direction, try to achieve the resonance of news and funds, so as to greatly improve the winning rate!
It's not easy to code words, if you think the above content is helpful to you, please don't hesitate to like and follow! If it's convenient, you can also help me share or retweet! All Jingyang fans and friends, if you have any questions, you can ask them in the comment area, and I will reply one by one after seeing them! (Only answer questions from fans!) ）