The Chinese word fell sharply, "Kete Valuation" seamlessly took over the baton, and the fund manager judged: Is the dividend track crowded?

Finance Associated Press

2024-06-11 20:44Published on the official account of Cailianpress, a subsidiary of Shanghai Poster Industry Group

Finance Associated Press, June 11 (Reporter Yan Jun) dividends have become a "conspicuous package" after the Dragon Boat Festival, on June 11, the whole market was volatile and differentiated, the Chinese word fell generally, and the dividend index and CSI dividends fell first, with a single-day decline of 1.86% and 1.66% respectively.

The elephant dance is not moving, the Chinese prefix is collectively adjusted, the shipping leader COSCO Shipping Holdings fell to the limit, China Heavy Industries, CICC Gold, CITIC Bank, China CRRC, China Shipbuilding, Kweichow Moutai and other big blue chips fell by more than 3%; On the other hand, chip and semiconductor ETFs rose by more than 5%, and the call for "science and technology valuation" in the market was high.

Every year in June, it is the time window for capital switching, and the market with the dominant dividend style in the first half of the year will usher in an adjustment?

Interestingly, Cao Liulong, chief strategy officer of Founder Securities, released a research report on June 10 entitled "Kete Valuation: Vision and Reality", which became the pioneer of Kete Valuation, which is, simply put, the packaging word of new quality productivity.

However, it is interesting to note that, judging by the reaction of the market, it seems that the conclusions of this research report have not been read. Cao Liulong said at the end of the research report, saying that the Kete valuation is a long-term trend, but the short-term transaction still needs to be cautious and wait for the signal, and while holding the "medium valuation" (safe asset), keep an eye on the Kete valuation, which is a better solution for the next stage of trading. For the current industry allocation, it is recommended to continue to adhere to the "82 rule": that is, 80% of the positions are allocated "safe assets" in the medium and long term, including some resources such as coal, nonferrous metals, and oil; 20% of the positions are staged to "develop assets", including real estate, banks, etc.

Caught off guard, this research report with the topic of special estimation and the conclusion of the configuration was "patted" on the beach.

What is different this time with a big adjustment in high dividends?

The high dividend adjustment sentiment is already brewing during the Dragon Boat Festival.

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, there were two pieces of news that disturbed the peripheral commodity market, one was that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payrolls in May were significantly stronger than market expectations; Second, the People's Bank of China suspended gold purchases in May.

In the eyes of the industry, the much-better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data has dashed hopes that the Fed is about to cut interest rates, and traders have lowered their bets on three Fed rate cuts this year. Commodities such as gold, silver, and copper plummeted.

It was originally a high-level commodity, taking this opportunity to take profits for bulls, and on the first day of trading after the holiday, the pullback of resource stocks became the first factor in the decline of high dividends. This is also reflected in the returns of ETFs on June 11, with gold stock ETFs leading the decline, falling by more than 4% at most, and energy sources such as mining ETFs and non-ferrous ETFs also retraced by more than 2%.

Among the typical high-dividend indexes, cyclical sectors account for the largest proportion; In the Dividend Value Index and CSI Dividend Index, the financial sector accounts for the second largest proportion. At the other end of the high-dividend sector, the banking sector was also disturbed by the small composition today, as of the close, none of the 42 listed banks closed up, and the bank index fell 1.77%.

Today's small essay circulating in the market shows that the four major banks have decreased their loans year-on-year, and the joint-stock banks have experienced negative loan growth in May for the first time. Fears of another decline in the May narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) data triggered a sell-off in bank stocks.

From the perspective of the industry, the decline in bank loans may need to wait for the release of credit data in May before making a judgment, and the concern about the further decline of M1 and M2 data is also a "reason" for the market after the fact. In April this year, the M1 stock was 66.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, and the M2 stock was 301.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year.

In the view of the above-mentioned people, the turnover of the whole market is only 702.9 billion, and in the shrinking market, the stock of funds is a game, and the Kote estimate has attracted some active funds, and the high dividend pullback is expected.

Is the bonus track crowded?

From 2021 to the present, the dividend index has been ranked high for three consecutive years, and it has also been favored by many funds. Since the beginning of the year, the dividend strategy has attracted more attention from investors because of its strong performance, and the trading congestion index once pointed to a high level. Whether the market style will change is a topic that investors are more concerned about.

To answer whether the market style is switched, we need to look at an important indicator, whether the public offering has been in the dividend and whether the track has become crowded?

Let's take a look at the public offering position first, there is no doubt that in the first quarter of this year, the public offering increased rapidly in the dividend position. Brokerage research report pointed out that the core asset position stabilized, compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the dividend position in the first quarter of this year increased rapidly, including electricity, oil and gas exploitation, etc., the proportion of insurance allocation declined, non-ferrous metals, communications, home appliances, public utilities, power equipment, transportation and other sub-industries are increased allocation, the proportion of increased holdings were 1.65%, 1.04%, 0.85%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.47%.

In terms of the issuance of new products, dividends are also the main direction of public offerings, and the recommendations of dividends and high-dividend products on various WeChat public accounts continue to increase.

According to incomplete statistics from the reporter of the Financial Associated Press, as of June 11, a total of 41 funds were issued with the theme of "dividends", of which 32 were raised, with a total of 10.632 billion yuan and an average of 332 million yuan. Among them, the issuance scale of the Bank of Communications CSI Low Volatility 100 Index was the largest, at 1.019 billion yuan, and the issuance scale of Fidelity Yuexiang Dividend Preferred and Taikang CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF also exceeded 900 million yuan. In addition, there are currently 9 new bonuses in the market.

With the outstanding performance of dividend theme funds, it has also attracted the favor of investors, and the scale of related theme funds has continued to grow since the beginning of this year. Wind data shows that as of June 11, the total scale of 135 dividend-themed funds in the whole market exceeded 109.1 billion yuan, becoming a category with a scale of 100 billion yuan.

In the view of fund managers, dividends continue to increase in attention, but it has not yet reached the high level of trading congestion, and some fund managers believe that the market sentiment has cooled down recently, and the trading congestion has returned to a reasonable range.

Under the volatile market, dividends may still prevail

Yang Zhenjian, fund manager of Bosera CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF, said that the dividend strategy is regarded as a long-term investment strategy that is relatively independent of the bull and bear market cycle, and its characteristics of "high dividend" + "low valuation" make it have a certain adaptability in different market environments.

Yang Zhenjian pointed out that dividend strategies usually perform relatively well in volatile and bear markets. This is because in this market environment, the overall risk of the market is higher, and investors are more inclined to choose investment opportunities with stable returns and lower risk. At the same time, in terms of market sentiment, dividend strategies usually perform relatively well when market risk aversion rises. Because those companies with stable dividend distribution ability are often able to provide relatively stable income when market uncertainty increases, thereby attracting the inflow of safe-haven funds.

Golden Eagle Fund Han Guangzhe said that since mid-to-late May, market volatility has increased. Affected by the liquidity of micro-cap stocks and the changes in the external Sino-US foreign trade policy, the market risk appetite has declined, the market lacks increment or even shrinkage, and the performance of dividend assets has been dominant in the near future. Looking ahead, in the direction of the market, the weak reality and real estate policy expectations are intertwined, and at the same time, the market may still maintain a volatile pattern in the expectation of the Third Plenary Session.

(Financial Associated Press reporter Yan Jun)

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