It was sold out in 10 minutes, and someone bought 160,000 yuan! What are the chances of investing in ultra-long-term special government bonds?

China Times

2024-05-21 17:53Posted on the official account of Beijing China Times

On May 20, some banks launched the sale of this year's first ultra-long-term special treasury bond "24 Special Treasury Bond 01" to individual investors for a limited time.

It is reported that the treasury bond is a 30-year book-entry treasury bond with a coupon rate of 2.57%, which will start to calculate interest on May 20, pay interest every six months, and will repay the principal and pay the last interest on May 20, 2054.

The reporter noticed that although the sales time is limited to 10:00-15:30 on May 20, and the product period is as long as 30 years, there are still many individual investors who show great enthusiasm for it. Within 10 minutes of the sales by the agency bank, the online quota of 20 million yuan has been sold out; Some sold more than 300 million yuan within two hours of going on sale. At the same time, on social media, the discussion about ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is also rising, many netizens posted screenshots of their subscriptions, and some netizens started with 160,000 yuan, bluntly saying that they intend to hold it to maturity, "Collect 2,000 yuan of interest every six months to treat yourself." ”

Some banks start selling for a limited time, and although the term is too long, it is still "in demand"

This year's government work report proposes that 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be issued for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas.

On May 17, the first ultra-long-term special treasury bond "24 special treasury bond 01" was issued. Wind data shows that the weighted bid rate of the bond is 2.57%, the market multiple is 3.9, and the margin multiple is 382.6, and the winning bid yield is lower than the valuation level of China Bond. According to the yield to maturity data of China Treasury bonds, the yield to maturity of 30-year treasury bonds was 2.58% on May 16.

"It's a positive sign." You Xi, co-founder of Communication Planet APP, told the China Times that this shows that the market's demand for ultra-long-term treasury bonds is still strong, and the market's expectations for the yield of long-term bonds are also declining.

He added that the fact that the yield of the winning bid is lower than the valuation level of China Bond also indicates that the current market interest rate level is low, which is conducive to reducing the valuation risk of bonds. At the same time, the yield of the winning bid is lower than the market valuation level, which also indicates that the current ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have certain investment value.

The reporter noted that on May 20, the day the bond began to calculate interest, two joint-stock commercial banks opened a purchase channel for individual customers to purchase the first 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the purchase time was limited to May 20.

According to the account manager of a Beijing branch of one of the joint-stock banks, the first batch of 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of the bank will be open to retail customers from 10:00 to 15:30 on May 20, and will not be open to institutional customers for the time being. During the opening hours, individual customers must bring their CMB all-in-one card and ID card to the bank outlets for account opening, or they can also handle it through the PC terminal of personal banking, and mobile banking does not support purchase for the time being.

Another staff member of a joint-stock bank said that individual customers can purchase through mobile banking, and the purchase time is also limited to 10:00-15:30 on May 20.

In terms of sales, although it is not as good as the sale of savings treasury bonds, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are still "in demand": some distribution banks sold more than 300 million yuan within two hours of the sale, and some banks sold out 20 million yuan within 10 minutes through online channels.

At the same time, many individual investors posted screenshots of online payments on social media. Among them, some netizens placed an order two minutes after the sale, and it was 160,000 yuan as soon as they were sold. A netizen in Beijing said that he subscribed for 50,000 yuan and planned to hold it to maturity, which was precisely because he liked the "stable passive income" of paying interest every six months, and bluntly said that under the continuous downward trend of interest rates, "it eliminates the trouble of having to choose a lower interest deposit every time the deposit matures".

It can be traded in the secondary market, and experts warn to be wary of interest rate risks

What do ordinary people need to pay attention to when buying ultra-long-term special treasury bonds?

Yuan Shuai, executive director of the high-quality development promotion project of specialized, special and new enterprises, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Times that the maturity of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is very long, which not only locks in stable income in the next few decades, but also means that investors need to bear a certain interest rate risk. "If individual investors need to redeem treasury bonds in advance, they may face certain interest rate risk and market risk."

During the visit, the above-mentioned account manager stressed to the "China Times" reporter that the risk rating of individual customers must be A3 and above to purchase 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. According to the bank's risk assessment statement, A3 is a stable investment and can be purchased with medium risk products. Another staff member of a joint-stock bank also said that the bank's risk rating for 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is R2 (medium and low risk).

In addition, the "China Times" reporter learned that before the current issue of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds was open for subscription to individual investors, some of the bank's VIP customers reported that they received a short message from the bank in advance to sell the current ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the SMS notice also specifically reminded the transaction risk, "because the bond term is ultra-long-term, the bond price fluctuations faced by selling during the holding period will be higher than that of short- and medium-term treasury bonds, and we must pay attention to the risk." ”

According to the issuance announcement, as a book-entry treasury bond, the current 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bond will be listed and traded on May 22, when individual investors can buy from institutional investors in the secondary market, and individual investors who do not intend to hold maturity can also be transferred through the secondary market. Since bond prices fluctuate with interest rates, even Treasury bonds that are not at risk of default are subject to interest rate risk.

Generally speaking, when market interest rates rise, the price of book-entry Treasury bonds falls; When market interest rates fall, the price of book-entry Treasury bonds rises. In addition, as an important indicator of interest rate risk, the longer the duration, the greater the volatility of the bond price, and the greater the interest rate risk. When market interest rates rise, bonds with long duration fall more than bonds with short duration; And when market interest rates fall, bonds with a long duration rise more than bonds with a short duration.

Since the beginning of this year, bond yields have broken down rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 2.29% from 2.56% at the beginning of the year, and the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds fell to 2.46% from 2.84% at the beginning of the year, down 27 and 38 basis points, respectively. Over the past decade, yields in China's bond market have also been on a downward trend. Looking ahead, the industry expects that bond yields will continue to decline as a general trend.

According to the issuance arrangements previously disclosed by the Ministry of Finance, there are more ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on the way.

It is reported that the maturities involved in the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issued this year include 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years, of which the 30-year maturity is the initial issuance, and the 20-year and 50-year maturity will be issued on May 24 and June 14 respectively.

From May to November, the 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds were issued seven times a month. 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, issued once in May and November, and twice a month in the remaining months in between, a total of 12 times; The 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bond is issued three times every two months. Three types of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds with different maturities will be issued in mid-November this year.

Editor-in-charge: Meng Junlian Editor-in-chief: Zhang Zhiwei

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