Make up for yesterday's gap, and pull back after hitting a new high
Today's news:
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.49%, the Nasdaq up 0.65% to a record high, the S&P 500 up 0.09%, and most of the popular technology stocks rose, with Nvidia up more than 2%, Microsoft and AMD up more than 1%, and Tesla down more than 1%. Metals & Mining, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials led the gains, diversified banks, food & beverage sectors fell, JPMorgan Chase fell more than 4%, the biggest one-day decline since April 12.
The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference in May, and the spokesman introduced that in terms of promoting domestic consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the implementation of the employment priority policy, do everything possible to stabilize employment, promote income growth, and improve residents' spending power. Accelerate the trade-in of consumer goods, expand the consumption of goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones, and the consumption of services such as cultural tourism, and increase efforts to cultivate and create new growth points such as new scenarios and new business formats for consumption.
[The scale has skyrocketed! A large amount of funds poured into these ETFs] With the recovery of the market, funds from all walks of life have returned to the stock market through ETFs, and some varieties have ushered in a large increase in scale. According to statistics, as of the opening of the market on May 20, the total scale of the first batch of 10 CSI A50 ETFs reached 21.047 billion yuan, breaking through the 20 billion yuan mark, an increase of about 27% compared with 16.527 billion yuan at the time of establishment. The CSI A50 Index has a distinct large-capitalization leading style, and its favor by funds also reflects to a certain extent that the core assets that have been dormant for a long time are returning to the field of vision of investors. According to statistics, as of May 20, the CSI A50 Index rose by 8.27% during the year, Zijin Mining rose by 56.26% among the constituent stocks, and many constituent stocks such as CRRC, Fuyao Glass, and China Merchants Bank rose by more than 30% during the year.
As of now (May 20), 1,463 companies in the A-share market have completed repurchases with a total amount of more than 84.4 billion yuan; In the same period last year, it was only 25.084 billion yuan, and the number of companies participating in the repurchase was only 520.
As of May 20, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 791.846 billion yuan, an increase of 669 million yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 704.415 billion yuan, an increase of 2.158 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1496.261 billion yuan, an increase of 2.827 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
This morning, the market opened 7 points lower at 3164 points as the highest point, bottomed out at 3155 points, and closed at 3158 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell 0.40%, 0.39%, 0.41%, 0.56%, 0.62%, 0.35%, 0.61% and 0.78%. The ratio of individual stocks is 1273:3939, and the ratio of price limit is 28:7. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 513.7 billion, a decrease of 140.9 billion from the previous trading day.
Yesterday, the market set a new high for the rebound and a new high for closing this year with a trading volume of nearly one trillion yuan, cutting into the 3170-point platform position. If you want to talk about the credit, it should be foreign investment. Last week, there was a net inflow of 9 billion yuan in northbound funds, and yesterday there was a net inflow of 5.3 billion. As of May 20 this year, the net inflow of northbound funds was 93.181 billion, twice that of 45.3 billion last year.
After yesterday's market, Goldman Sachs sang again to be long, saying that in the next 12 months, the CSI 300 index could rise to 4,100 points. Correspondingly, the Shanghai Composite Index can rise above 3,500 points. From this, the increase is about 11%. It may be said that the market after the Spring Festival and the May Day holiday is related to the high-profile public opinion of foreign capital. Of course, there is also the factor of forcing Hong Kong stocks to rise steadily, and Hong Kong stocks have risen by more than 30% this year. A-shares rebounded from the lowest point in early February, with an increase of more than 20%, and in the eyes of foreign investors, they have entered a technical bull market.
However, A-share investors, who have suffered from bear markets and stock market crashes, are not as optimistic as foreign investors. Because the index has reached 3160 points, but the capital card of the vast majority of investors is still negative compared with 2974 points at the end of last year, and the index has risen by the core assets represented by the four major ETFs, large-cap stocks and bank stocks. It would have to rise to at least 3,274 points for most investors' money cards to be tied with 2,974 points at the end of last year. Just look at the old media worker Lao Hu's loss of more than 40,000 yuan, you can see it.
Of course, judging from the good economic fundamentals, the strict quality and quantity control of the expansion of new shares, the unprecedented easing of the new real estate policy, the most generous dividends of listed companies in history, and the expectation of RRR and interest rate cuts, the trend of A-shares is volatile and upward.
However, due to the market capitalization of the A-share market has exceeded 85 trillion yuan, the lack of new funds in the market, and thousands of institutions are doing quantitative trading to bet on the price difference, the market has been unable to rise like the two rounds of bull market in 2006-2007 and 2014-2015. In the language of fluidity, it is "the internal stability of the market" and "the resilience of the market".
Yesterday's rush to 3174 points was the first time that the market rose from a 3130-3150 point platform to a 3150-3170 point platform. When the four major ETFs that were pulled up yesterday, including the national team and northbound funds, they collectively pulled back today, and the market revisited 3155 points. Given that it was only 13 days to close above 3100, 9 days above 3130, and 5 days above 3150, it will still take time to consolidate 3150-3170, and it is important to be patient. As I predicted before the May Day holiday, it would be good if the entire Red Day could challenge 3,200 points, and it is unrealistic to expect a big rise.
If you want to outperform the market, you can only operate in a three-legged pattern, take turns on individual stocks, sell high and buy low, chase down and kill Zhang, and accumulate small wins for big wins. If there is really no good choice, then make a difference in the CSI 300 ETF and CSI 50 ETF, or make a difference in the four major bank stocks, and bet on the price difference in the right grabbing market before the announcement of the dividend plan and the equity registration date.
Afternoon attention: Can the market close above 3150 points? Can the top close above the 3164 points at the starting point of last year's 7.24 meeting? Can the four major ETFs of the national team turn from falling to rising? 1273:3939 The disparity between individual stocks can be changed? Can the trading volume be above 850 billion?