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Aluminum prices are on the rise
Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated upward. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on May 19 was 20,733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86% compared with the average market price of 20,556.67 yuan/ton on May 10.
Raw material alumina market up
According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of May 19, the average price of alumina market was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of alumina market on May 10 was 3,616 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07%. The shortage of raw materials and the expectation of incremental demand have led to a strong upward trend in the alumina market.
The rapid rise in alumina prices has brought strong cost support to the price of aluminum ingots.
The new real estate deal is expected to transform the terminal demand
5 consecutive new deals for real estate:
1. The central bank: it is planned to set up a re-loan for affordable housing with a scale of 300 billion yuan that can be extended 4 times
The People's Bank of China announced on May 17 that it intends to set up affordable housing refinancing. The scale of the reloan is 300 billion yuan, the interest rate is 1.75%, the term is 1 year, and the term can be extended 4 times. The recipients include 21 national banks, including the China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, postal savings banks, and joint-stock commercial banks. In accordance with the principle of independent decision-making and assumption of risk, banks issue loans to local state-owned enterprises selected by the city government to purchase completed and unsold commercial houses for use as affordable housing. The People's Bank of China will issue reloans according to 60% of the loan principal, which can drive bank loans of 500 billion yuan.
2. Two departments: the down payment of the first home loan is not less than 15%, and the second set is not less than 25%
The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration: For households that take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second house is adjusted to not less than 25%. On this basis, the provincial-level branches of the People's Bank of China and the dispatched agencies of the State Financial Supervision and Administration independently determine the lower limit of the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses in each city under their jurisdiction in accordance with the requirements of urban regulation and control and in accordance with the principle of city-specific policies.
3. The central bank: cancel the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial loans for the first and second homes
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued a notice on adjusting the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans. 1. Abolish the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level. 2. Each provincial-level branch of the People's Bank of China, in accordance with the principle of city-specific policy, guides the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing at the provincial level, and independently determines whether to set the lower and lower limits of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans in each city within their jurisdiction (if any) in accordance with the real estate market situation of each city within their jurisdiction and the regulation and control requirements of the local government. 3. Banking financial institutions shall, in accordance with the lower limit of interest rates (if any) determined by the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing at the provincial level, reasonably determine the specific interest rate level of each loan in combination with the operating conditions of the institution, customer risk status and other factors. In the event of any inconsistency between the previous relevant provisions and this Notice, this Notice shall prevail.
4. The central bank: cut the interest rate of provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points
Central Bank: From May 18, 2024, the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the interest rate of the second set of personal housing provident fund loans for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325% respectively.
5. The government may purchase part of the commercial housing at a reasonable price at its discretion
The video conference on the work of ensuring the delivery of housing was held in Beijing on the 17th. The participants pointed out that real estate is related to the vital interests of the people and the overall situation of economic and social development. At present, it is necessary to focus on classifying and promoting the disposal of commercial housing projects under construction that have been sold and difficult to deliver, fully support the financing and completion delivery of projects that should be renewed, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers. The relevant local governments should proceed from the actual situation and properly dispose of the idle stock of residential land that has been transferred by means of repossession and acquisition as appropriate, so as to help real estate enterprises with financial difficulties to solve their difficulties. In cities with a large inventory of commercial housing, the government may purchase some commercial housing at a reasonable price as appropriate. It is necessary to continue to do a good job in the prevention and disposal of debt risks of real estate enterprises, and solidly promote the construction of affordable housing, the transformation of urban villages, and the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes.
Macro sentiment drove non-ferrous metals higher
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April fell short of expectations, other economic data showed that U.S. inflation expectations have weakened, and the Fed's "dovish" statement has caused the market to resume interest rate cut expectations. The number of U.S. jobless claims released last Thursday rebounded more than expected, hitting a new high since August 2023, the dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metals sector recovered.
The probability of aluminum price volatility in the future increases
At present, the domestic explicit inventory of aluminum ingots is not large, and the accumulation of inventory after the holiday is better than market expectations. Supply is expected to increase, but based on the relatively high domestic aluminum price and the closure of the import window, the LME surge inventory has little impact on the domestic market. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods for mainstream consumption has been slightly destocked, and the consumption is expected to be good, forming a relative balance between supply and demand in the short term, and it is expected that the probability of shock in the future market will increase.