Everyone has heard the saying: "When one room falls, everything rises." This means that if the real estate industry fails, then prices in other industries will skyrocket. Recently, some self-media influencers have publicly stated their opinions, predicting that with the decline in housing prices in first-tier cities, our cost of living will continue to rise.
This remark has aroused widespread attention, is this the case? Today, let's take a closer look.
Doubt 1: When housing prices skyrocket, prices are also rising?
Let's take a look back at the last 20 years. During this period of time, the mainland real estate market can be described as soaring wildly, especially the housing prices in first-tier cities, which have soared from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan. However, during the same period, our cost of living is also rising, and food, housing, medical care and education are rising in all aspects.
Does this confirm the thesis that "house prices rise→ prices rise"? But even if housing prices go up, our wage income growth is far from keeping pace with the price increase. Therefore, although the rise in housing prices has pushed up the operating costs of enterprises, in the final analysis, the rise in prices is the fundamental reason, and the rise in housing prices is only one of the driving forces.
Doubt 2: When house prices fall, everything rises? Untenable!
Okay, let's analyze the statement of the big V from the media. He believes that if house prices fall, then prices in other industries will skyrocket.
But if you think about it, the impact of falling housing prices on different industries is also different. For example, the asset-light industry such as catering and retail will be relatively less impacted. However, for asset-heavy industries, such as manufacturing and real estate, falling housing prices will instead ease their operating pressure.
What's more, there is more to housing prices than meets the eye. There is also monetary policy, macroeconomic control, inflation level, etc., which will affect the final price trend. Therefore, simply "house price = price" is a bit too arbitrary and one-sided.
In addition, China's economy is now undergoing transformation and upgrading, and the process of urbanization is still continuing. We will no longer rely solely on a single tax from the real estate industry to sustain social welfare. For example, the manufacturing industry will earn foreign exchange through exports and the vigorous development of emerging industries will become new growth drivers. So even if housing prices continue to be sluggish, how can it affect the overall development of the country?
Pursuing a moderate downward trend in housing prices is the right way
In the long run, it is precisely high housing prices that will increase the cost of living for residents and crush the development of enterprises. Excessive pursuit of high housing prices is tantamount to going backwards, restricting economic transformation and development.
Therefore, we should neither be afraid of low housing prices, nor should we be obsessed with the development model of high housing prices. The moderate downside of housing prices can stimulate new impetus for consumption and investment, paving the way for economic take-off.
So, friends, don't be blinded by fanning the flames. Only by examining the changes in the real estate market with rational thinking can we gain insight into the general trend of development. Returning housing prices to a reasonable range and creating a good environment for the real economy is the only way to a happy life.
Finally, we call on everyone to use an open and inclusive mind to meet the general trend of downward housing prices. I believe that as long as you stick to the right path, there will be mountains of gold and silver to call you!
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