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Market Overview
The Nasdaq closed at an all-time high, the Dow fell to a record high, and constituent JPMorgan Chase fell 4.5%. The chip stock index rose more than 2% to outperform the market, Nvidia rose 2.5%, and Micron rose 3%. Microsoft rebounded to a new high in more than a month, and Google hit a record high for four consecutive days. Retail stocks rebounded, and the game station closed up more than 4% after falling more than 10% intraday. After launching a low-cost diet pill, Hims closed up nearly 28%.
Federal Reserve officials were hawkish, U.S. Treasury yields rose for three consecutive days, and the U.S. dollar index accelerated its intraday rebound to get out of a five-week low.
Crude oil ended a three-day winning streak and bid farewell to the high level this month. New York gold and copper futures hit a record high for two consecutive days, copper futures rose nearly 3% intraday, and silver futures hit an 11-year high on the fourth day. Bitcoin rose more than $4,000 intraday to break through the $70,000 mark, and Ethereum rose nearly 20% intraday.
In the Chinese market, during the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index fell more than 1%, stopping three consecutive gains, Li Auto fell nearly 13% after its financial report, Haidilao fell more than 6% the next day after listing, Weilai fell more than 1%, and Zeekr rose more than 4%; The offshore yuan fell more than 100 points to 7.24 intraday. The AH market hit a new high in the year, precious metals broke out across the board, and real estate stocks rose and fell.
News
AI PC is fully "bright", Microsoft has launched Copilot to fully integrate into Windows 11, and GPT 4o is "soon" to bless. Dell unveils new AI computer with Qualcomm chip, NVIDIA: The partnership with Dell is the key to expanding AI.
Ideal's first-quarter revenue increased by 36% year-on-year, and the second-quarter delivery guidance fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell more than 12%.
HIMS launches $199 affordable weight loss pill, which is 85% lower than Novo Nordisk.
The second-in-command of the Federal Reserve and other voices: can not pay too much attention to the April CPI data, continue to be cautious policy.
London copper, London zinc, London lead, and London nickel closed up more than 2%, and London copper once rose above $11,000 to a record high. Goldman Sachs "changed its tune", although it is optimistic in the long term, cautious about copper in the short term, and beware of a repeat in the second quarter of 2021.
Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian were killed in the helicopter accident.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow fell 0.49%, the S&P 500 rose 0.09%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.65%.
European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed up 0.18%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.35%. France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.35%. Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.05%.
A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.59%.
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 2.15 basis points to 4.4414%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note rose 1.90 basis points to 4.8436%.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for June delivery closed down $0.26, or 0.32%, at $79.80 a barrel. Brent crude futures for July delivery closed down $0.27, or 0.32%, at $83.71 a barrel. COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $2,430.35 an ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 2.56% to $32.060. COMEX copper futures rose 1.11% to $5.1060 a pound.
Highlights
Global blockbuster
AI PC is fully "bright", Microsoft has launched Copilot to fully integrate into Windows 11, and GPT 4o is "soon" to bless. Windows 11 AI PC will be available in Microsoft, Dell, Lenovo and other partner devices from June 18, which is 58% faster than the MacBook Air with M3, and the number of calculations is 40+ TOPS/s; The new feature Recall helps you find what you have watched on your PC and provides real-time subtitles translated into more than 40 languages including Chinese. The new Copilot+ Surface Pro starts at $999 and starts at 8,688 yuan in China.
Dell unveils new AI computer with Qualcomm chip, NVIDIA: The partnership with Dell is the key to expanding AI. Dell Technologies has unveiled a series of new PCs built around optimizing AI tasks. The new computer is equipped with Qualcomm AI chips and can summon Microsoft's AI Copilot service with one click. On the one hand, some analysts pointed out that the recovery of computer market demand in the first quarter, coupled with the high price of AI computers, is conducive to Dell's revenue growth. On the other hand, Dell has entered into a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to make it easier for enterprises and government agencies to use AI technology by providing a complete AI infrastructure, thereby bringing generative AI technology to every company in the world and helping both companies grow their businesses.
Ideal's first-quarter revenue increased by 36% year-on-year, and the second-quarter delivery guidance fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell more than 12%. Li Auto expects second-quarter revenue to increase by 4.2%-9.4% year-over-year, with deliveries of 105,000 to 110,000 vehicles, compared to the market estimate of 130692 vehicles.
HIMS launches $199 affordable weight loss pill, which is 85% lower than Novo Nordisk. For the first time, HIMS has launched its weight loss injections for just $199 per month to challenge the expensive weight loss pills on the market that cost up to $1,350 per month. Unlike branded drugs such as Novo Nordisk's semaglutide (Wegovy), Hims has taken an innovative collaborative approach, joining forces with compound pharmacies to produce generic versions containing the same active ingredient. The company's CEO expects weight loss product revenue to exceed $100 million by the end of 2025. The stock price rose more than 27%.
The second-in-command of the Federal Reserve and other voices: can not pay too much attention to the April CPI data, continue to be cautious policy. The Fed's second-in-command and a number of members of this year's voting committee have spoken out, and in general, officials have not yet felt confident that inflation will fall to the Fed's 2% target, and officials have generally called for a continued cautious policy stance. The president of the Cleveland Fed bluntly said that he no longer thinks it is appropriate to cut interest rates three times this year. Last week, the US released what many called "exciting" April CPI data.
London copper, London zinc, London lead, and London nickel closed up more than 2%, and London copper once rose above $11,000 to a record high.
- How to see the follow-up interpretation of copper gold oil? Guohai Securities believes that after the end of strong stocks and weak businesses, copper prices tend to start a new round of upward trend; The expectation of a Fed rate cut in the fourth quarter may push gold prices to continue to rise; Subsequent oil prices may remain volatile.
- Goldman Sachs "changed its tune", although it is optimistic in the long term, cautious about copper in the short term, and beware of a repeat in the second quarter of 2021. After a 20% surge in copper prices in the first quarter of 2021, there was a negative feedback on demand from March, and copper prices retreated 9% from $10,240/mt at the end of May, before copper prices embarked on a more modest and sustainable upward path.
Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian were killed in the helicopter accident. On the afternoon of the 19th local time, a helicopter carrying the Iranian president, foreign minister and other entourages had a hard landing accident in the Varzhagan region of East Azerbaijan Province. After the accident, the Iranian side quickly organized a rescue operation, but the rescue operation was hampered by the inaccessibility of the accident area, poor mountain and forest conditions, and foggy weather.
Domestic macro
China "does not cut interest rates", and the 1-year and 5-year LPRs remained unchanged in May. The 1-year LPR was 3.45% and the 5-year LPR was 3.95%, both unchanged from the previous month.
On the first weekend after the new deal in the property market, "the broker was very busy". The market transaction volume has increased, and individual owners have raised the listing price of second-hand houses, and the market sentiment has been initially boosted, and a number of new policies are still to be implemented.
Domestic companies
Apple's official direct sales channel has joined the "price war", and the iPhone 15 series models can be reduced by up to 2050 yuan. In addition to the latest iPhone 15 series, in the Tmall Apple flagship store, including iPhone 14 series, iPhone 13 series, laptops, tablets, smart watches, headphones and other products have different degrees of discounts.
Samsung was stuck by TSMC: Samsung's HBM3E memory has not yet passed NVIDIA's test and is stuck in TSMC's approval process.
Goldman Sachs: For the first time, CATL was given a "buy" rating with a target price of 304 yuan. Goldman Sachs is bullish on CATL's technological strength and profitability, expecting CATL's average annual EPS growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2030, and expects its share price to rise by 50% over the next 12 months.
Flying car leader EHang's operating loss narrowed by 13.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, and its revenue is expected to increase by 8 times in the second quarter. EHang expects total revenue in the second quarter to reach approximately RMB90 million, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 804%. The stock price rose 7% pre-market and closed down more than 11%.
Overseas macro
One of Wall Street's most famous bears, is now bullish on US stocks. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson raised his S&P 500 price target to 5,400 from 4,500 to 5,400, citing strong U.S. earnings as the reason for his shift.
Overseas companies
With the launch of GPT-4o, OpenAI's mobile net income surged last week, with a net income of $4.2 million. According to the analysis, this shows that there is a huge demand from consumers to try the latest AI products. What's more, ChatGPT's revenue growth trend shows no signs of slowing down, and it is likely to be maintained or even increased.
Apple's AI strategy. In order to catch up with its opponents, Apple bet on Siri and quickly joined the global AI chatbot competition. After the launch of the new generation of AI product iPad Pro in May, the iPhone 16 product launched at Apple's autumn conference may also include AI chips.
The "price war" accidentally injured a major European leasing customer, and Tesla was forced to compensate. Tesla's frequent price cuts have stimulated sales, but they have also led to a significant drop in the value of its vehicles, which has sparked dissatisfaction among customers around the world, especially the most important European leasing and rental companies. In an attempt to appease European leasing companies, media reports say Tesla is offering unofficial discounts on new car purchases in stock and is working to improve service and repair issues that have been criticized for years.
Industry/Concept
1. Copper clad laminate According to the Securities Times, Kingboard, a major global manufacturer of copper clad laminates, issued a price increase notice again on May 20, saying that due to the sharp rise in the price of copper, the main raw material of copper clad laminates, customers have recently stocked up, and the company's production capacity in May has been fully filled. Due to cost pressure, the price of copper foil thickness 18μm and copper foil thickness 35μm products will be increased by 5-10 yuan per sheet from the new order on the same day, and other thickness copper foil plates will be increased according to the corresponding range. In March this year, the company has increased the price of all products by 10 yuan per sheet.
Comments: According to media reports, LME copper prices rose 4% to $11,104 on the 20th, hitting a record high. LME copper prices have risen more than 28% since the start of the year. China Jushi and other companies have also further raised the price of glass fiber. In the face of the sharp rise in raw material prices, the copper clad laminate industry has passed on the cost pressure to PCB manufacturers through multiple price increases due to the relatively concentrated competition pattern. On the demand side, the overall prosperity of PCB manufacturers in Q1 has improved, and the demand in the AI field is still strong. Driven by the rise in raw material prices and the improvement of downstream prosperity, a number of copper clad laminate companies have opened a new round of price increase cycle. The industry said that at present, with the recovery of the utilization rate of the PCB industry, the copper clad laminate has the conditions to enter the upward channel of price increases, from a historical point of view, the price transmission ability of copper clad laminate manufacturers is stronger, with the follow-up PCB demand further warm, copper clad laminate manufacturers are expected to enter the price of continuous repair, and the follow-up performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations.
2. Manganese| According to the Securities Times, industry data shows that manganese products have regained momentum after a short adjustment. On Monday, manganese ore rose 4.76%, and the latest price has risen to 64.95 yuan/ton, and hit a new high since the rebound. In terms of manganese alloys, the main manganese-silicon contract SM2409 soared 7% on Monday to close at 8914 yuan/ton, once again approaching the previous high.
Comments: CITIC Securities said that the world's largest manganese ore producer, South32, was forced to suspend all operations at its GEMCO mine in Australia due to the impact of the hurricane, which is expected to reduce the supply of manganese ore by about 10% in 2024, corresponding to a decrease of 350,000 tons of domestic manganese ore imports per month. This disturbance will stimulate a sharp rise in the price of manganese ore, or is expected to hit the price high in 2016, and the price of silicon-manganese and electrolytic manganese products will also rise.
3、eVTOL| According to the Shanghai Securities News, on May 20, EHang released its results for the first quarter of 2024: the company achieved a total revenue of 61.7 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178%, and achieved positive operating cash flow for the second consecutive quarter. Previously, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a production license for EHang's EH216-S unmanned manned aircraft system, which is the first production license in the global eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) industry, marking the mass production of unmanned manned aircraft. Hu Huazhi, chairman and chief executive officer of the company, said that the company will continue to be committed to promoting the EH216-S into a new growth stage of commercial operation, and advancing the development, testing and airworthiness certification of the unmanned manned composite wing eVTOL model designed for intercity transportation.
Comments: SDIC Securities Research Institute believes that low-altitude economic policies are intensively introduced, and eVTOL is the best carrier of low-altitude economy. The core components of eVTOL, such as batteries, body structure parts and interiors, are highly overlapping with the new energy vehicle industry chain, but compared with electric vehicles, eVTOLs have higher requirements for fast charging frequency, peak power duration, average discharge rate, and energy density.
4. Optical transceiver| According to the Shanghai Securities News, the latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed that the export value of optical modules in April was 3.851 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.84% and a month-on-month increase of 79%. For the United States, the export value of optical modules in April was 1.599 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.40% and a month-on-month increase of 20.01%.
Comments: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute believes that from May to July, a number of overseas manufacturers will release the progress of AI development, the industry hotspots will be intensively catalyzed, and the demand for the optical module industry will grow. Everbright Securities said that in 2022, among the top 10 manufacturers in the global optical module market, domestic manufacturers will occupy seven seats. Driven by AI, China's optical module exports have grown rapidly this year. The higher interconnection rate and the growth of more interconnection numbers have laid a broad market space for high-speed optical modules, and the leading position of domestic companies in the world is superimposed, and the optical module market opportunities are fully optimistic.
5. TV panel| According to TrendForce's latest survey data, in late May 2024, the prices of some sizes of TVs and display panels will continue to rise. The price of some notebook panels increased slightly from the previous month. Due to the gradual recovery of the market for TVs, computers, mobile phones and other products, the demand for panel terminals has gradually rebounded.
Comments: Northeast Securities Research Institute said that in the LCD field, not only will there be no new entrants to invest in the production line in the future, but the existing competitors will gradually withdraw from the competition sequence, the supply side of the industry will usher in a huge improvement, and the overall supply will be stable in the future. In addition, due to the cost and large-screen advantages, as well as the gradual popularization of 4K/8K high-definition and other factors, LCD will continue to maintain the mainstream display position for a long time in the future. The leading position of mainland manufacturers is stable, and the sustainable profitability will be greatly improved.
6. Mobile payment According to the China Securities Journal, JD Pay has achieved interconnection with WeChat Pay, becoming the first third-party payment institution in the industry to open up both WeChat personal code and merchant code. Users can scan the WeChat payment code through the JD Finance app to make payments, and mobile payment users, represented by MSMEs merchants and consumers, may benefit from this interconnection. JD Pay and WeChat Pay both have a huge active user base and are also influential enterprises in the payment industry, and the strategic cooperation between the two platforms will further demonstrate the demonstration effect of interconnection, promote the industry to accelerate reform and achieve a win-win situation.
Comments: Media reports pointed out that at present, the penetration rate of mobile payment in mainland China has reached 86%, leading the world. As of 2023, domestic banks and non-bank payment institutions will handle more than 1.4 trillion transactions, serving more than 1 billion individuals and tens of millions of merchants. Payment is related to the livelihood guarantee of residents and the development of the real economy. The interconnection of mobile payment is conducive to the optimization of the competition order of the industry, the improvement of the economies of scale of payment services, the reduction of the overall transaction cost of the society, and the promotion of the inclusive growth and innovative development of the digital economy.
7. Smart City According to the China Securities Journal, on May 20, the National Data Bureau held a special press conference to introduce the "Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Development of Smart Cities and Promoting the Digital Transformation of Cities". Wu Xiaoning, Director of the Department of Digital Economy of the National Data Bureau, said that it is necessary to give full play to the role of data as a basic resource and innovation engine, comprehensively improve the integrity, systematization and coordination of urban digital transformation, and use data integration, development and utilization throughout the whole process of urban planning, construction, management, service and operation, comprehensively reshape the technical architecture of smart cities, systematically change the urban management process, promote the deep integration of industry and city, promote the high-quality development of modern cities, and promote the comprehensive implementation of digital China construction in cities.
Comments: Media reports pointed out that the construction of smart cities in the new era is to drive the economic and social development of cities with digitalization, and to create an upgraded version of smart cities that take into account the modernization of urban governance and the modernization of the industrial system. Smart cities are an important carrier and starting point for the development of the digital economy. Smart cities provide rich application scenarios for industrial agglomeration and the development of the digital economy, and build verification and promotion platforms for the integrated innovation and application of new digital technologies and new products, such as intelligent transportation and smart communities, which are the direct embodiment of the innovation and development of the digital economy.
Today's news preview
Microsoft Build 2024 developer conference.
Xpeng Motors' financial report.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered speeches.
Germany PPI for April.
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