Do you still believe what the experts say?
The topic of the oil and electricity controversy has never lacked attention. It is not yet clear who will win between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, but many professionals in the industry have expressed their views.
At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum in March, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said when referring to the safety of new energy vehicles, "the spontaneous combustion rate of fuel vehicles is higher than that of new energy vehicles." ”
This view is full of skepticism. The reason is that the data that the spontaneous combustion rate of fuel vehicles displayed in PPT at that time is higher than that of new energy vehicles is doubtful and not convincing enough.
Less than two months later, another expert has come up with a new perspective. Lin Xinyou, an adjunct professor and doctoral supervisor of Fuzhou University, and the head of the new energy vehicle and intelligent control team of Fuzhou University, said in an interview:
"In the next two to three decades, with the maturity of alternative technologies and the promotion of related policies, fuel vehicles will be gradually withdrawn from the market. However, as a mature and reliable drive system, the internal combustion engine still has a certain market space, showing the coexistence of multiple drive technology types. ”
This is equivalent to announcing that the sisi of the fuel vehicle has forgotten the date, and seeing this point of view, many netizens instantly broke the defense. A large number of fuel car enthusiasts emerged in the comment area, they said, "As long as there is a fuel car, resolutely do not buy a tram";
"If you ride a two-wheeled electric car and run farther, you won't dare to run too far if the power is off. Later, when I bought a motorcycle, I didn't have range anxiety", ironically alluding to the fact that new energy vehicles still have range anxiety.
Others ridiculed it as a foolish remark. "After the epidemic, the world has sobered up, has its own independent thinking, and will never be fooled by anyone like in previous years."
Netizens have clear ideas and great brains, and they are justifying the name of fuel vehicles. Nowadays, the development of domestic new energy vehicles has reached a stage of strong growth, and has even posed a threat to joint venture brands based on fuel vehicles. The joint venture brand is gradually losing its dominance in the market.
According to the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in April 2024, China's automobile production and sales will reach 2.406 million units and 2.359 million units, respectively, an increase of 12.8% and 9.3% year-on-year.
Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 870,000 units and 850,000 units, up 35.9% and 33.5% y/y, respectively. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 2.985 million units and 2.94 million units, up 30.3% and 32.3% y/y, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 32.4% of total new vehicle sales.
According to the ranking of domestic mainstream joint venture vehicles, FAW-Volkswagen fell by 15.6% year-on-year, SAIC Volkswagen fell by 21.7% year-on-year, GAC Toyota fell by 32.1% year-on-year, Dongfeng Nissan fell by 9.6% year-on-year, and FAW Toyota fell by 31.3% year-on-year.
On the other hand, BYD increased by 31.1% year-on-year, accounting for 16.6% of the market share, which is 1.2 times that of North and South Volkswagen and 2.5 times that of Toyota.
It can be said that the strong rise of domestic new energy vehicles has squeezed the living space of fuel vehicles, and it is only a matter of time before fuel vehicles are replaced. In recent years, many manufacturers have planned to fully transform new energy, and even follow market changes to launch plug-in hybrid/extended range power versions of popular classic models for transition.
For example, Dongfeng Motor will invest more than 60 billion yuan in new energy products in the next three years to accelerate the transformation of new energy; Geely has already completed the basic investment and ecological construction of the transition to new energy in 2023. Models such as the Passat and Accord are also available in PHEV versions.
Nowadays, manufacturers are changing their strategies in line with the trend of new energy development, so the future trend is very clear. If the self-owned brand is fully new energy, and the joint venture brand based on fuel business does not follow the mainstream, it will face the fate of being marginalized by the market.
Regarding power battery technology, experts mentioned that the development of domestic solid-state batteries and the related actions of car companies have shown a significant active trend. The growth in domestic EV sales is driving the demand for high-performance battery technology, especially solid-state batteries.
As for whether solid-state batteries are the "ultimate technology" for electric vehicle power sources, the analysis points out that this statement is too advanced. At present, the solid-state batteries advertised by car companies such as GAC are actually semi-solid or quasi-solid. It does not technically fit the definition of a pure solid-state battery without a liquid electrolyte.
At present, the energy density of semi-solid-state batteries has basically reached 350Wh/kg to 400Wh/kg, and it has not yet been commercialized on a large scale. The energy density of all-solid-state batteries should be more than 500Wh/kg.
Therefore, if new energy vehicle companies want to develop pure solid-state batteries, they need to spend a certain amount of time and cost to break through technical challenges. Today, major domestic power battery manufacturers CATL and BYD have announced plans for mass production of solid-state batteries. It will take time to verify the subsequent promotion and application performance of solid-state batteries in practice.
All in all, under the current development trend, the gradual withdrawal of fuel vehicles from the market has been the general trend, and it may be more controversial in terms of time. In addition, the route of automotive power technology is not a single direction, and will eventually form a diversification. Pure electric, plug-in, including hydrogen or coexistence in the automotive market of the future.
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Legal adviser
Beijing Weiheng (Fuzhou) Law Firm, Lai Chenglong, lawyer