Will property stocks still rise next Monday? How much does it go up?

National Business Daily

2024-05-19 11:12Published on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Every reporter: Wang Yandan Every editor: Xiao Ruidong

In the past trading week (5.13~5.17), A-shares were in shock from Monday to Thursday, and the Shanghai Composite Index has been testing back and forth between the upward attack of 3200 points and the retracement of 3100 points. Fortunately, on Friday, a mid-yang candlestick won back faith. On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.01% to close at 3154.03 points.

From the perspective of market style, the value of the large market is significantly better than that of the small and mid cap. The following figure is the market index quotation in the Oriental Fortune Choice financial terminal. This week, the value of the broader market rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.62%, which was significantly better than the small and medium-sized 300 gains.

However, judging from the weekly K-line, the orange 120-week moving average in the chart below still poses a lot of pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index. So can the Shanghai Composite Index effectively break through 3,200 points? We need to first review the real estate sector that has ushered in epic positive results this week. As one of the pillar industries of the national economy, it also has an immeasurable impact on the popularity of A-shares.

First, the review of the real estate epic good: the plate market or just started

On May 17, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration announced a series of favorable policies for real estate:

1. Abolish the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level;

2. From May 18, the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points;

3. The minimum down payment ratio for the first home commercial loan is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for the second home commercial loan is adjusted to not less than 25%, of which the down payment ratio for the first home is the lowest in history.

Affected by this, 100 A-share real estate stocks rose on Friday, and more than 20 stocks such as Vanke A, Gemdale Group, Poly Development, Binjiang Group, and Huafa Co., Ltd. rose to the limit; 180 stocks in the H-share real estate sector rose, Sunac China rose nearly 30%, Vanke rose nearly 20%, and China Jinmao, Midea Real Estate, Longfor Group, etc. rose more than 10%.

However, before Friday's epic positive release, the real estate sector had already seen an early rally. As can be seen from the figure below, under the secondary industry classification of Shenwan, the top seven industries with weekly gains are all real estate industry chains.

The performance of leading stocks is even more eye-catching. For example, Binjiang Group rose 30.69% this week, and Vanke A rose 19.05%.

In the long run, the real estate services and real estate development sectors rose by 47.42% and 26.85% respectively on the 20th.

The advance of real estate is related to the relevant intensive policy briefings since the beginning of this year. Before the epic favorable landing on May 17, many cities have completely canceled purchase restrictions. Therefore, when the final "king bomb" appears, will the real estate sector continue to rebound or choose to "see the light and die"?

From the perspective of overseas markets, funds have a positive interpretation of real estate policies. The U.S.-listed Fang Duoduo rose more than 400% intraday at one point, and finally closed with a surge of 321%, becoming the focus of stock news late Friday night.

Major brokerage research institutes are also actively bullish on real estate policies. Founder Securities pointed out that the supply and demand sides of the policy resolutely work together, the supply side optimizes the supply by restricting land supply and "storage and storage" &"land withdrawal", and the demand side promotes the accelerated release of reasonable demand through the relaxation of purchase restrictions, the reduction of interest rate/down payment ratio, and the trade-in of the old for the new, etc., and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve significantly under the clear care of the policy.

At the same time, Founder Securities also pointed out that the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate reduction may only be one of the tools, and the strength, rhythm and method of "collection and storage" will continue to be introduced in clear details, and the "old for new" type of storage may be more reasonable.

In terms of sector investment, Founder Securities believes that the current sector is still in the current situation of low valuation and low holdings, and the sector market may have just begun, and under this beta market, positions are more important. The target focuses on: I love my home, C&D shares, and China Resources Land.

Dongguan Securities also pointed out that a series of policy combinations at the central level have been introduced, which are extremely strong and exceed market expectations, which will help boost market confidence, activate the property market, and accelerate the industry out of the bottom of this round of adjustment cycle. Recently, under the continuous boost of policies, it has also brought about an over-falling rebound in sectors and individual stocks. It is believed that the road to valuation repair of sectors and individual stocks will not be achieved overnight. The effect of the policy has been gradually reflected, the subsequent improvement of property market sales and the gradual completion of the debt of real estate enterprises, and the improvement of fundamentals and performance, which will drive the stocks in the sector to repair the market more sustainably.

Therefore, from the perspective of capital trends and mainstream views, the probability that the real estate sector will continue to "get off to a good start" on Monday is relatively high.

2. Preview of next week's events

May 20th

As one of the most important promotions in the middle of the year, on May 20, Tmall and Kuaishou will rush to take the lead in this year's "618". Judging from the previous preview, Tmall "618" will cancel the official pre-sale, and it will go on sale at 8 p.m. on May 20, and the Kuaishou "618" promotion has canceled the pre-sale gameplay, and it will officially "open for sale" from May 20, and the promotional activities will last until June 30.

How the sales of "618" are, as a window to observe the recovery of consumption, it is worth paying attention to investors.

May 21

CSI will officially launch the CSI 500 Dividend Low Volatility Index, CSI 800 Dividend Low Volatility Index and CSI 1000 Dividend Low Volatility Index on May 21. Securities with continuous dividends, high dividend yield and low volatility were selected from the CSI 500, CSI 800 and CSI 1000 index samples as index samples.

Microsoft Build 2024 Worldwide Developers Conference will be held in Seattle on May 21~23. This year is said to be focused on Windows on Arm and new AI features. In addition, there will be a new product launch event for Windows and Surface on May 20.

May 22nd

The first tranche of 40 billion ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be listed and traded from May 22.

On May 13, the Ministry of Finance announced the relevant arrangements for the issuance of general treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2024, and the 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds planned to be issued this year are divided into three varieties: 20 years, 30 years and 50 years. The listing is the 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bonds (phase I) (30-year) issued by public bidding on May 17, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan, and the coupon rate is determined through competitive bidding, and this treasury bond will be distributed from the end of the bidding to May 20, 2024, and will be listed and traded on May 22.

Nvidia is expected to report earnings on May 22. In 2023, Nvidia surpassed Qualcomm with a revenue of $55.268 billion, jumping to the world's highest revenue chip design manufacturer for the first time, creating a myth in the capital market, and many overseas institutions expect its first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance to be significantly higher than expected.

Market

Next week (May 20th ~ May 24th), a total of 65 companies' restricted shares will be lifted one after another, with a total of 4.337 billion shares, and the total market value of the ban will be 60.752 billion yuan based on the closing price on May 17. Zhongke Feishi (8.949 billion yuan), Shensanda A (8.207 billion yuan), and Nanqiao Food (6.025 billion yuan) ranked in the top three, with a market value of more than 5 billion yuan. Nuotai Biotechnology (3.795 billion yuan) and Electric Wind Power (2.832 billion yuan) followed. It is worth noting that the above 5 shares will be lifted next Monday.

There will be 2 new shares to be subscribed next week.

Huicheng Vacuum (301392) will make a preliminary inquiry on May 21 (Tuesday) and subscribe on May 24 (Friday). The number of new shares issued by the company is 25 million shares, accounting for 25% of the total share capital after the issuance. The offering does not include the public offering of shares by the company's shareholders, and the total share capital after the issuance is 100 million shares.

Wanda Bearing will issue new shares on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 21. After negotiation between the issuer and the sponsor (lead underwriter), the company's offering price is 20.74 yuan / share, and all the shares issued this time are new shares, and the initial number of shares issued is 5.00 million shares, and the over-allotment option can be exercised.

Wanda Bearing was originally a company listed on the New Third Board. According to the announcement, the company's stock code will be changed from 873843 (the original new third board stock code) to 920002 (Beijing Stock Exchange stock code) on the trading day before listing, which is also the "first share of the 920 code".

3. Inventory of recent news

Since there are many hot spots this week in addition to real estate, let's briefly review them.

Guolian Securities announced that it will acquire 100% of the shares of Minsheng Securities, and there will be two daily limits after the resumption of trading

On May 15, Guolian Securities resumed trading. According to the previous announcement, Guolian Securities is planning to acquire 100% of the shares of Minsheng Securities held by 46 entities such as Guolian Group and Fengquanyu through the issuance of A shares, and raise matching funds.

On May 15 and May 16, Guolian Securities walked out of the two one-word board limits, but on the 17th, the volume was pulled back, down 3.63% on the same day.

China Securities Regulatory Commission Issued Regulations on the Administration of Programmatic Trading in the Securities Market (for Trial Implementation)

On May 15, the Administrative Provisions on Programmatic Trading in the Securities Market (for Trial Implementation) was promulgated, which will be officially implemented from October 8, 2024. The "Management Regulations" proposes to strengthen the supervision of high-frequency trading; Clarify the requirements for transaction monitoring and risk prevention and control; It is clarified that Northbound programmatic transactions shall be included in the reporting management in accordance with the principle of consistency between domestic and foreign investment, and the transaction monitoring standards shall be implemented, and other management matters shall be applied by reference to these Provisions, and the specific measures shall be formulated by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and announced separately.

Marco Polo's IPO "suspended"

On May 16, the IPO will be reopened. Marco Polo plans to land on the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the sponsor is China Merchants Securities. However, Marco Polo, the company that attended the meeting, did not pass the meeting smoothly, but was suspended.

The relevant person in charge of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange said, "The listing committee's suspension of the review of Marco Polo's listing application is mainly due to the actual situation that the company's operating income and profit have declined to a certain extent during the reporting period, and it is necessary to further confirm whether the uncertain factors affecting performance have been eliminated on the existing basis." "After the suspension of the review, according to the regulations, the company needs to provide supplementary information on the stability of performance, and the listing committee will make a review and judgment based on the relevant situation, so as to ensure the entry of the issuance and listing.

Four departments: Strictly crack down on illegal and criminal activities in securities and futures in accordance with the law

Recently, the "Opinions on Several Issues Concerning the Handling of Securities and Futures Illegal and Criminal Cases" was issued, which requires adhering to zero tolerance and strictly cracking down on illegal and criminal activities in securities and futures in accordance with the law.

Fourth, this week's market review

As mentioned earlier, the leading sector is the real estate industry chain. The leaders of the decline were small household appliances, small metals, aerospace equipment, etc., which had previously risen significantly. However, if it is extended to the 20th, it is still a slight adjustment after the rise.

In addition, the ST sector continued to fall. On May 15, *ST Baoli's share price fell to 0.09 yuan, becoming the first stock in the history of A-shares with a stock price of less than a dime. On May 16, on the last trading day of A-shares, *ST Baoli had a strong daily limit, closing at 0.11 yuan per share. On the evening of May 17, *ST Baoli announced that the company received the "Prior Notice" issued by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The company's stock closing price for 20 consecutive trading days is less than 1 yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange intends to decide to terminate the company's stock listing and trading.

Overseas, all three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. The Nasdaq rose 2.11% and the S&P 500 rose 1.54%, both rising for the fourth consecutive week. The Dow rose 1.24% for the week, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains.

On top of that, the Dow closed at 40,003.59 on Friday, the first time in 128 years that it closed above 40,000. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 0.38% and up 6.53% this week.

Jia Yueting shocked Wall Street this week. Faced with the crisis of NASDAQ delisting, Jia Yueting miraculously reversed the crisis. About a week ago, Jia Yueting released a video saying that he would consider co-CEO of the company with FF Global CEO Matthias, and would start the commercialization of personal IP to make money to make cars, and together with the company's management team, he hoped to make some money as soon as possible, part of which was to repay debts, and part of it to save the company, which was used to subsidize car manufacturing. Take all feasible measures to maintain the company's compliance listing status and start the battle to defend the qualification of FF listed companies.

On Friday, May 17, the stock price of Faraday Future (FF) rose from about 4 cents to $3.9 in just five trading days, an astonishing increase of nearly 100 times. However, at the close, FF retreated and closed at $1.03.

National Business Daily

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