After two consecutive declines in oil prices, can the automotive industry return to the fuel era?

Univision Automobile

2024-05-18 17:05Posted in Hunan Automobile Creators

On May 15, domestic oil prices ushered in the first "two consecutive declines" in the year.

Domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) were reduced by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively, which was also the largest reduction in the year. After this round of price adjustment, the price of No. 92 gasoline in some areas has returned to below 8 yuan/L.

While the majority of fuel vehicle users are rejoicing, we might as well rethink a question: can the automotive industry return to the fuel era?

At the moment when new energy is leading the trend, it seems that the automotive industry has returned to the era of fuel. But the "boomerang" has indeed been issued.

Let's start with the results of a media research survey. According to a survey by foreign media, after buying an electric vehicle, half of the owners said that they would buy a fuel vehicle again in the future to replace the electric vehicle or use it as a second car for the family. There are three main reasons: price, infrastructure, and range anxiety. In addition, there are also some electric vehicle owners who believe that they can get a better experience by buying a fuel car or hybrid car as a backup at home.

Even though the acceptance of electric vehicles by domestic users can be said to be the highest in the world, in a domestic market survey, the proportion of all respondents who continue to consider buying new energy vehicles still declined, and 22% of pure electric vehicle owners said that they would no longer consider new energy vehicles for the next vehicle.

Let's take a look at the reaction of car companies. Whether it is for the purpose of avoiding losses or the need to protect the traditional automobile industry, European and American car companies have begun to abandon the radical electrification goals they once set and return to the arms of fuel vehicles.

Toyota is obsessively developing a new super engine.

Mercedes-Benz has said that it will no longer adhere to its original goal of fully switching to electric vehicles in major markets by 2030, and will continue to actively develop new internal combustion engine models. And, the latest news is that Mercedes-Benz has canceled the development of the new pure electric platform MB.EA Larged. BMW has also postponed its full electrification and said it will not abandon the internal combustion engine. 

Volkswagen, which seems to be the most determined to electrify in China, has also abandoned its plans to go all-in on electric vehicles, revealing that "customers now want plug-in hybrids, including those in China and the United States." ” 

GM Ford had already suspended or postponed some of its electrification strategies. In an interview with overseas media, the official senior management of the U.S. Cadillac also disclosed that "oil and electricity will coexist for a long time." In other words, Cadillac will continue to sell gasoline-powered vehicles after 2030. Prior to this, Cadillac had planned to fully transform into an all-electric brand.

Of course, this is not to negate the long-term trend towards electrification. It's just that, for most people, fuel is still a necessity.

Sales of new energy vehicles in China are also changing. According to the latest data from the Passenger Association, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in April were 462,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%; The overall sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 255,000 units, an increase of 103% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month; The wholesale of extended-range vehicles was 69,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64% and a month-on-month decrease of 10%. The growth rate of plug-in hybrid is much stronger than that of pure electric vehicles.

The growth rate has brought about a change in the sales structure, with the penetration rate of new energy in April being 40.3%, but the proportion of plug-in hybrids reaching a new high of 41.4%. If you don't count the fact that many online car-hailing vehicles are purchased pure electric models, the proportion of pure electric vehicles will have to decline.

Plug-in hybrid and extended range models, although classified as new energy vehicles from the policy point of view, are still inseparable from fuel.

Oil, you can do without it, but with a tank of oil there, there is no more range anxiety and no more travel restrictions. This is the meaning of fuel in the new energy era. If oil prices can continue to fall back to the 7 yuan era, fuel will always have value. At this stage, what new energy has changed is only the relationship between electricity and oil.

From this point of view, the fuel era is not over, and the car is returning to the era of fuel vehicles. That's right, right? (Text/Youshi Auto Old Cannon)

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Personal opinion, for reference only