Steve Jobs's prediction that "chips are sold by the sand" is fulfilled in this day and age
1. Steve Jobs's prophecy that "chips are sold by the sand".
In a 2003 speech, Apple's founder, Steve Jobs, made an incredible prediction: "One day, chips will be as cheap as sand and can be sold by weight." At the time, this prophecy was seen as a fantasy because the chip manufacturing process was extremely complex and costly. Time flies, technology advances, and now this prediction is now a reality in specific market segments.
Steve Jobs' prediction stemmed from his unique insight into the development of technology. He recognizes that with the continuous improvement of the manufacturing process and the expansion of scale effects, the cost of chips will drop significantly. The demand for chip performance in emerging application fields is also increasing, which will further promote the development of the chip industry. He foresees a future where chips will become so cheap that they can even be sold by weight like sand.
2. The prophecy becomes a reality in a particular market
Today, Jobs' prediction has become a reality in specific low-end markets such as the Internet of Things, wearables, and industrial control systems. These areas have relatively low performance requirements for chips, but have strict constraints on cost and power consumption. Inexpensive and low-power chips are ideal for these areas.
With the continuous progress of chip manufacturing technology, especially the promotion of advanced process technology, the cost of chips has dropped significantly. Chip design and manufacturing are also becoming more standardized and modularized, further reducing costs. Against this backdrop, some chip suppliers began to offer cheap chips sold by weight, which was fully in line with Jobs's predictions back then.
In the IoT space, for example, many IoT devices use inexpensive microcontroller chips, which often cost only a few cents. In the field of wearable devices, the same is true for the chips used in products like bracelets, smart watches, etc. Embedded chips in industrial control systems are also inexpensive. These chips, while limited in performance, are sufficient for the application scenarios they serve and are inexpensive enough to be deployed at scale.
3. The high-end consumer electronics market remains unrealized
Although Jobs' prediction has been fulfilled in the specific markets mentioned above, chip prices are still high in the high-end consumer electronics market, and this prediction has not yet been fully fulfilled. High-end consumer electronics products have extremely high performance requirements for chips, requiring the most advanced manufacturing processes and design techniques, so the cost is relatively high.
Taking smartphones as an example, the application processor and baseband chip need to have powerful computing power and data processing capabilities to meet users' needs for multimedia, games, and networks. These chips are typically manufactured using 7nm or more advanced process processes, and the cost of a single chip can be tens of dollars. Even relatively inexpensive memory chips and power management chips are much more expensive than those used in IoT devices.
Chips for high-end consumer electronics products not only need strong performance, but also need to have a high degree of reliability and stability to ensure the use experience of the product. This requires a lot of R&D resources to be invested in the chip design and manufacturing process, which further increases the cost. The price of chips in high-end consumer electronics is unlikely to be as cheap as sand in the short term.
4. Future prospects
Although Jobs' prediction has not yet been fully realized in the high-end consumer electronics market, it is expected to gradually come true in the future as technology continues to advance. Innovations in chip manufacturing processes will further reduce the cost of chips, while emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5G will also drive the improvement of chip performance.
With the continuous expansion of emerging application areas such as the Internet of Things and smart homes, the demand for cheap chips will continue to grow. This will further promote the large-scale production of the chip industry, thereby reducing unit costs. In the near future, we can expect to see more chips as cheap as sand, even in some high-end consumer electronics.
Steve Jobs' prediction in 2003 that "chips are sold by the sand" has become a reality in certain low-end markets such as the Internet of Things, wearable devices, and industrial control systems. All this is due to the continuous progress of the chip manufacturing process and the expansion of the industrial scale effect, which has greatly reduced the cost of chips. In the high-end consumer electronics market, chip prices are still high, and Jobs' prediction has not yet been fully realized. With the continuous innovation of science and technology and the continuous expansion of new application fields, we have reason to believe that this prediction will become a reality in a wider range of fields in the near future.