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2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

author:Stock market of the day

U.s.

A number of Fed officials made "hawkish" speeches, saying that they were not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and U.S. stocks adjusted slightly across the board overnight, with the Dow down 0.10%, the Nasdaq down 0.26%, and the S&P 500 down 0.21%.

In terms of economic data, the U.S. import price index rose 1.1% year-on-year in April, the largest increase in two years, and an expected increase of 0.4%; Month-on-month, it rose 0.9% and expected to rise 0.3%.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended May 11 was 222,000, with an expectation of 220,000 and a previous value of 231,000.

China's assets exploded, popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.49%.

2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

A shares

Today, the big A rose in early trading for a short time, and then due to the economic data in April was less than expected, the market quickly corrected and turned from rising to falling; In the afternoon, boosted by the property market portfolio policy, the real estate sector exploded, and the financial sector also performed synchronously.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3154.03 points, up 1.01%; The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9709.42 points, up 1.10%; The GEM index closed at 1,864.94 points, up 1.12%.

The ratio of individual stocks in the two cities was 3.63:1, and nearly eighty percent of the stocks rose, and the market made money obviously.

The total turnover of the two cities was 887.4 billion yuan, a slight increase of 39.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

Hong Kong stocks

Hong Kong stocks opened high and went low in the morning, pulled back again in the afternoon, and also followed the big A to rise across the board in the afternoon.

At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.91% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.99%.

Southbound funds continued to buy, with a cumulative net inflow of 5.957 billion yuan throughout the day.

2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

Sector performance

The real estate sector exploded across the board and was unstoppable, with more than 20 stocks such as Vanke A and Poly Development rising by more than 7%.

On the news, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Policy on the Minimum Down Payment Ratio of Personal Housing Loans", saying that for resident families who take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses is adjusted to not less than 25%.

The People's Bank of China issued the Notice on Adjusting the Interest Rate Policy for Commercial Personal Housing Loans, abolishing the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level.

The People's Bank of China issued the Notice on Lowering the Interest Rate of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loans, reducing the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points from May 18.

In addition to the performance of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of real estate, many sectors such as insurance, military industry, hotel, chemical, and semiconductor have performed well.

2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

A few sectors such as home appliances, pharmaceuticals, ships, and clothing fell against the market.

2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

Economic data for April

This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released important economic data for April:

1. In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with an expected increase of 5.5% and a previous value of 4.5%;

From January to April, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% year-on-year, expected 4.7%, and the previous value was 4.5%;

3.1-4 months real estate development investment fell 9.8% year-on-year, expected to fall 9.3%, the previous value fell 9.5%;

4. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with an expected 4.6% and a previous value of 3.1%.

Except for the acceleration of the growth of industrial added value, the rest of the performance was less than expected, which can also be corroborated by the previously released social finance data.

Reviews

Big A's market today is a bit interesting, the morning market started well, and as soon as the economic data was released at 10 o'clock, the major indices began to dive. Originally, when everyone was a little deflated, the east wind of real estate blew again in the afternoon, and the policy news was one after another, and the real estate sector was surging at the end of the day, and the three major indexes rose strongly.

It is worth noting that although the index has risen well, the market volume has not risen sharply, indicating that most people are still in a state of doubt.

I think it is probably due to the following reasons: first, the social finance and economic data in April did not perform very well; the second is the concern about whether the real estate policy can produce practical results; The third is that the varieties held by many people have not risen with the index in recent months, and everyone still feels bad.

It is not unreasonable for everyone to think this way, and because the "injury" in the past two years is too serious, there is a scarring effect.

So why do we gradually become cautious and optimistic after the year? We make adjustments according to changes in the market:

In the first wave, we can see the "mysterious power" shot, and then the northbound funds began to gradually increase their positions, and then the market fluctuated and consolidated around 3000 points, selling less and less, and then the multi-party forces gradually increased, and the market stood on 3100 points, while southbound funds and foreign capital are also increasing their positions in Hong Kong stocks, the attractiveness of Chinese assets is increasing, and the market has begun to change to the bulls from the technical level...

This is a process of accumulation and subtlety, and most people will not care about it at first; Then the number of people entering the market gradually increases, and a small number of people will follow, but most people will be skeptical; Later, as the market fluctuated and rose, the number of people entering the market began to increase again, and the multi-party forces gradually accumulated; Until the end, almost everyone reached a consensus and rushed into the market, the market began to soar, the volume rose sharply, everyone was emotional, looking forward to the rise every day, this is the time for smart money to withdraw...

And often the last stage is when most people enter the market, just like the property market, when it falls, no one cares, and when it rises, it comes one after another. And this last stage is the most tragic stage of killing more at a high level, those who are rational and understand some technology and trading strategies will stop losses in time, and they will not make money or lose a little; And most retail investors, who can't see account losses, will be trapped on the top of the mountain, and I don't know how many years have passed...

Good guys, unconsciously talking so much nonsense, just to give everyone a rough impression in their minds, what each trading cycle looks like. As for what stage Big A is currently in, you can try to analyze it yourself, we think there is still something to see, I don't know what you think?

2024.05.17 Stock Market Closing Comment: The real estate sector broke out across the board, and A-shares rose at the end of the session

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